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Orders for LNG tankers continue to grow despite mixed prospects from the Iran War

Analysts and industry executives say that global orders for LNGCs are expected to rebound this year following a slump in 2025, as the growing production of LNG and improved fuel efficiency on vessels will drive demand.

The increase in orders offsets concerns that the U.S. - Iran war could reduce shipping demand near-term and?pressure freight rates.

According to Poten & Partners & Drewry, since late last year, South Korea and China shipbuilders have received more orders. In the first quarter of this year, 35 new LNGCs were contracted.

Drewry data show that, by comparison, 37 LNGCs have been ordered for 2025. In 2022, a record number of 171 LNGCs was placed. Each tanker is between $250 million and 260 million dollars, with a build time of over three years.

The upcoming LNG production in North America, Africa, Canada, and Argentina, will create tanker demand. Fuel efficiency and vessel demolitions are also expected to increase, according to Pratiksha?Negi, Drewry’s lead LNG analyst. Steam turbine and diesel-electric ships should be phased out.

FLEXIBLE U.S. FLEXIBLE U.S.

Over 700 LNGC vessels are in the global LNGC fleet, and they handle more than 400 million tonnes per annum of LNG.

Fraser Carson, Wood Mackenzie's principal analyst for global LNG, stated that more than 120 mtpa in new U.S. supply will be available within the next three to four years.

He said that the growth in U.S. gas and flexibility of LNG supply has created trading patterns which require more shipping.

U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is typically sold free-onboard with flexible destination options, allowing for mid-voyage diverts that can prolong vessel delays.

Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Jotaro Tamura, CEO of Lines, which is the largest LNGC fleet owner in the world with 107 vessels expects U.S. LNG investment to spur tanker order, he said.

The company intends to increase its LNGC fleet by approximately 150 vessels around 2035.

Drewry data revealed that the number of LNGCs powered by steam has increased from 2022, to 15 vessels in record time last year. This is due to tighter emission regulations and poor economics.

Uma Dutt is vice president of LNG at Anglo-Eastern global ship management, and she said that a proposed framework by International Maritime Organization (IMO) to reduce shipping emissions also drives demand for new build.

WAR COMPLICATES OUTLOOK

However, the Iran war presents contradictory signals for LNG shipping. The disruption of LNG supply is pushing Asian buyers to alternative suppliers like the Atlantic basin, which increases travel distances. Wood Mackenzie's Carson said that it could also increase demand for LNG projects in other regions, increasing the overall demand for carriers.

The 'war' has disrupted LNG flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and Qatari capacity of 12.8 mtpa will be sidelined for 3 to 5 years. This could reduce shipping demand, and weigh on freight rates, at a moment when an avalanche of ships is coming.

Qatar, with its 100 LNGCs will build 70-80 new ones over the next three to four years, while ADNOC, the UAE's ADNOC, is expected to double their fleet to 18 in 36 months.

He said that "most of these new vessels were intended to serve LNG projects in construction, which are now experiencing delays."

The longer the delays continue, the more likely that the ships will be offered on the market under sublet agreements - softening the rates significantly.

Poten & Partners and Drewry 'expect a new record of 90-100 LNGCs being delivered this year, up from 79 LNGCs in 2025.

Negi, a Drewry representative, said that seven of the nine LNGCs originally scheduled to be delivered this year but now delayed to 2027-2028 are connected to QatarEnergy.

Poten & Partners Senior LNG Analyst Irwin Yeo stated that some companies may put off placing large new orders because of the uncertainty caused by war.

Some people may be put off by the rising costs of raw materials and labour in shipbuilding, as well as market uncertainty.

(source: Reuters)