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Tariff turmoil subsides, allowing industrial giants to regain their footing

This year, industrial companies have experienced a rollercoaster ride as they have tried to adjust their trade policies to those of U.S. president Donald Trump. But this quarter, executives have suggested that confusion is receding, as the corporations have now had more time to adjust higher tariffs on U.S. imported foreign goods.

In contrast to the first half, heavy machinery, engine manufacturers and construction firms, which reflect the "real" economy, have been able to navigate the current environment by reducing costs and increasing prices in order offset the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Executives say that while there are many concerns for the coming quarters, they no longer feel as unpredictable.

Michael Larsen said, "Certainly from a cost perspective and perhaps from a supply standpoint, tariffs are not the kind of main event here" on an analyst call following the results last week.

According to an analysis of companies that reported between October 16th and October 31st, the estimated total hit to the global company's bottom line is about $7 billion. However, the markets are only halfway through the earnings season. This figure was between $16.2 billion and $17.9billion in the second quarter.

SOLID REVENUES GROWTH

LSEG data shows that U.S. Industrial companies are currently reporting the best revenue growth year-over-year since the first quarter 2023, at 6.3%.

Caterpillar, a manufacturer of heavy equipment, estimated that tariffs could cost it between $1.5 and $1.8 billion by 2025. After reporting a good quarter and a 12% rise in its shares, Caterpillar's results on October 29 narrowed this range to $1.6 to $1.75 Billion.

Joshua Schachter is the chief investment officer of Easterly Asset Management. He said that industrial companies, in general, are managing the uncertainty and changes to the tariff landscape pretty well.

UPS and FedEx, two of the world's largest logistics companies, have cut costs in order to compensate for the loss of duty-free status on low-value ecommerce shipments. UPS, however, has also drastically cut its payroll, dumping 48,000 jobs due to the continued pressures on its business in this year.

Analysts are concerned that the poor outlook for lower- and mid-income earners, which has affected consumer companies such as Newell, will spread to other sectors of the economy. The Trump administration also reached agreements with many nations to set import taxes between 15% and 20 % for some, after an earlier pause that left them at 10 %. This effect is not yet fully felt.

Angela Santos is a partner at ArentFox Schiff and the leader of the customs practice group. "We are only in October, and the reciprocal tariff increases started in August. So it hasn't taken that long."

EUROPEAN COMPANIES STILL FEELING THE HEAT

The high tariffs have made it harder for some European companies who rely on U.S. exports. Importers in the U.S. are less likely than ever to purchase their products.

SKF, a Swedish manufacturer of bearings considered a barometer for global manufacturing, anticipates a weak demand in the short term as customers are still hesitant because of tariffs and uncertainties. "If we get a little more calm and stable, I think that we will see the demand return," SKF's CEO Rickard Gstafson said on Wednesday.

HIAB, a Swedish manufacturer of construction equipment, said that since mid-February orders had been slowing due to trade tensions.

VDMA (German Engineering Federation), which represents 3,600 companies in the machinery and plant engineering sector, warned that new tariffs could affect more than half of German exports and European machinery if Washington adds more products to its list of steel and aluminum levies. Volkswagen and other European car manufacturers have been particularly hard hit, with Volkswagen reporting a $5.8 Billion tariff in its latest results.

Yale's Budget Lab has been tracking U.S. trade policy and says that the effective tariff rate was 18% at mid-October. This is the highest it has ever been in over 90 years.

On November 1, the Trump Administration will begin imposing new tariffs of 25% on imports of medium and heavy duty trucks, including 18-wheelers and dump trucks. A 10% tariff is also being imposed on buses imported from abroad.

Don Marleau said that the full impact of tariffs will not be felt until industrial companies go through their inventory.

In many cases, we haven't yet seen higher tariff costs. "We have higher estimates of tariff costs."

(source: Reuters)