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Bonds plunge from Tokyo to Sydney as oil surpasses $115

Investors were worried about the impact of a rapidly worsening 'U.S./Israeli war against Iran, which has pushed oil prices 'well above $115 a barrel.

Oil prices rose by more than 20%, reaching their highest level since July 2022. The week-long conflict in the Middle East led to major oil producers cutting supplies. Investors were also concerned about the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

George Boubouras is the head of research for K2 Asset Management. He said that the spike in oil prices was a function of the uncertainty about the length of the conflict.

Bonds are being overlooked because of the spectre of rising inflation, and the possibility that central banks will need to raise rates or increase borrowing costs in order to maintain a higher rate of interest.

Bond investors, however, are quickly recalculating how rates will look in the short term. The Federal Reserve has pushed the date of the next rate reduction from June or July to September.

South Korea, for example, is aiming to cap the price of fuel for the first time since nearly 30 years.

YELDS SOARING

The yield on three-year Australian government bonds jumped 16 basis points, to 4,592%. This is the highest level since mid-2011. The yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 13 basis points to 4.977%. Bond yields increase when prices drop.

The yen was also under pressure due to the rise in oil prices.

Investors in the broader market sold precious metals and stocks, becoming risk-averse, with the U.S. Dollar gaining favor.

The Strait of Hormuz is the cause of the current chaos on the financial markets. Ed Yardeni, of Yardeni Research in New York, said that this oil shock will not end until ships are able to sail freely through Strait. He said that until then, financial markets will be increasingly worried about a 1970s style stagflation, in which growth stagnates despite rising prices.

After a rise of over 17 basis points last week, the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds, which is highly sensitive for Fed policy expectations, has gained 5.9 basis point to 3.6146%.

German and French debt futures fell on Monday as well, suggesting that the selloff would extend to Europe. Bund futures were down 0.46% while French OAT Futures fell 0.67%.

Iran announced Monday that Mojtaba Khamenei will succeed his father Ali Khamenei in the role of supreme leader. This shows that hardliners are still firmly in control.

Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. He said that the markets see the new Iranian president as a hardliner who has close ties to the Revolutionary Guards. This could be a sign of policy continuity or confrontation risk.

Chanana explained that "for investors, crude oil starts to become a real macro-worry when it stops being just a one day spike and starts feeding inflation, margins, and policy expectations." (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast, Sam Holmes, and Ankur Banerjee from Singapore)

(source: Reuters)