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S&P PE may look cheap, but oil prices are still a concern
Wall Street is roaring back to record-highs despite the uncertainty surrounding the conflict in Iran. This risk has been highlighted by the'steady drumbeat' of CEOs warning about the economic impact of prolonged high oil prices. Why? Stocks look cheap. S&P 500 is trading at 20.8 times the expected earnings of its constituents over the next year. This price-earnings is at its lowest level in a year. It suggests that U.S. stock are better to buy than they were at the beginning of 2026 when the benchmark was trading at more than 22 times earnings. Investors and market participants expect the war against Iran to be over relatively soon, so they discount the long-term impact of this war. Oliver Pursche is a senior vice president with Wealthspire Advisors, based in Westport, Connecticut. He said that the U.S. economy and consumer continue to do well. The Strait of Hormuz is largely closed for oil tankers until a ceasefire of two weeks expires. Washington and Tehran are still far apart in their efforts to resolve this conflict. According to an analysis of transcripts, about two-thirds (or 67%) of S&P companies who have announced quarterly results since April began have expressed some level of concern over energy prices in their analyst conference call. Comparatively, 17% of S&P companies that reported results between January-March expressed concern about energy prices. GE Aerospace CEO Larry Culp said on Tuesday that the company would not have increased its?forecast if it weren't for the current uncertainties, citing a positive first quarter with a good outlook into the second. The Ohio-based firm said that its outlook assumes an even more cautious second half. This includes the possibility that airlines will reduce maintenance, delay engine deliveries and cut expenditure if activity weakens. GE shares fell 6%. GREAT EXPECTATIONS FOR WALL STREET Analysts and portfolio managers claim that despite the caution expressed by GE, stock buyers are comforted by the cheapness of the market, largely because they expect earnings to surge this year. Investors will test the valuation over the coming weeks to see if rising profit expectations can withstand concerns about high energy costs. The greatest risk is the outcome of the Iran war, especially if higher energy prices or higher prices in general start to sap consumer expenditure, said Rick Meckler. He said that disruptions in the supply chain could affect earnings. The modest P/E ratio of the market is not due to falling stock prices. Analysts have increased their earnings estimates, mostly because of optimism regarding artificial intelligence. If companies fail to meet these high-bar expectations, it could make U.S. stock prices look expensive and undermine a major support for recent rally. Key Risks to a Sharp Rally LSEG data shows that while the S&P 500 is up about 4% this year, earnings expectations for 2026 have jumped from 16% to nearly 20% in just one week. The majority of this increase is attributed to technology companies, followed by energy and materials firms. In recent days, several?companies? have already warned that high energy costs could affect their costs, the demand for their product and the overall economy. Tesla, Intel, Procter & Gamble, and American Express are also big players reporting results this week. Delta Air Lines cited high jet fuel prices earlier this month as the reason for pulling all planned capacity increases for the current quarter. The company also forecast profits below Wall Street expectations. Some companies have noted the risks of 'high energy prices, but say it is not a major issue. PepsiCo stated that it hedges its energy costs for 6-12 months. The PE of the benchmark has risen from as low a 19.4 in April but remains very close to its average over the past 10 years, which is about 19. Last year, the S&P 500 was at these levels after global markets fell following U.S. president Donald Trump's Liberation Day Tariff announcements. Another key risk for the recent market rally is that Wall Street's AI giants could fail to meet investors' increasing expectations. PHLX's chip index has risen by over 25% since April, due to the expectation of a continued high demand for AI data centers. If there is any indication that AI may not be as strong as anticipated, this could lead to a reversal of gains.
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The flagship Mayan tourist trains in Mexico leaves a trail of broken promises
In the Maya jungle of Mexico, a series of brilliant white lights are blazing in the darkness. It is a depot for a multi-billion dollar train line. Just beyond the perimeter fence, a village off-grid is in complete darkness. Mexico's Mayan train, a rail project of approximately 1,500 km (1,000 miles) in length, was designed to improve infrastructure and increase tourism to the impoverished southern part of the country. Two years after its launch, the project is still struggling. Tickets sales only cover a small fraction of the operating costs, and most hotels along the route are empty. Local communities say that despite government promises they have not seen any benefits. Census data and interviews with residents of towns near the line revealed that poverty is entrenched, and good-paying employment is hard to come by. Residents in Vida y Esperanza – "Life and Hope", as it is known in English – just steps away from a railway maintenance depot had hoped that the train would bring about change. Mary Sandra Peraza is a 30-year old mother of four. The power lines for the train are almost directly above her home. She relies on a solar panel and generator that she rents to meet her family's needs. She said, "There is no real benefit to us." Peraza prepares breakfast in the small outdoor kitchen on a propane-powered hotplate before dawn. The village's only primary school is located a few meters from the depot, but it lacks grid electricity to power fans, computers, or even stable light. Lidia Patricia Chan US, known to her 35 students simply as "Maestra Pati", has been trying for years to connect power. The authorities have informed her that electricity cannot be installed before the land under the school has official titles. Red tape is common for rural plots such as this one, but the woman had hoped it would change with the arrival a mega-project that was supposed to spur progress and development. Chan Us stated that "at first, when the project was introduced, we were very happy." She said that some residents sold food for construction workers. This was beneficial to the community. "But as soon as the construction was over, the food disappeared." According to official statistics, in the state of Quintana Roo where Vida y Esperanza resides, the number of homes with electricity fell slightly over the construction period of the railway line, despite the fact that new substations to power the line were constructed. The Mexican public education ministry and the defense ministry that oversee the operation of the state-owned company via which the train is operated did not respond when asked for comments. MAYA HAS LONG LIVED WITH POVERTY Former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador pushed the Mayan Train route, which connects cities and archeological sites in the Yucatan Peninsula. This was a way for him to help indigenous Maya communities develop and to spread tourism outside of?beach resorts such as Cancun. Government data indicates that this development has yet to take place. Quintana-Roo's economic growth grew by 13.2% in 2023 as a result of federal spending on the Mayan Train. However, this was a temporary boost due to construction. According to the latest statistics from the INEGI, the state's economy contracted by 9.7% in the first nine month of 2025. Quintana Roo has reduced unemployment and increased formal hiring. However, about 60% of Yucatan workers are still in informal employment without any legal or social protection. Mayas in Mexico's south-east have been marginalized for centuries. They face high poverty rates, and they are unable to access services. Many community activists claim that while governments have for decades promised development, their forests have been fragmented. Their communal lands have also been eroded. The government has pushed forward the project under the national security exemptions, despite legal challenges from environmental groups and Indigenous Communities. The land is a sacred inheritance for many Maya. It is central to their identities and links them with their ancestors. "I am outraged at the way they acted, because they did not take us into consideration," said Eliseo ek, 45, a Quintana Roo Indigenous activist who lives in the community of Nicolas Bravo. EMPTY WORDS AND EMPTY TAPS Nicolas Moreno Jimenez is a 50 year old beekeeper/farmer who lives in a modest concrete house near a train line. The tap in his modest concrete home does not work. Lopez Obrador said that the chronic water shortages in the town would be addressed by the Adolfo Lopez Mateos Xpujil aqueduct he will inaugurate in January 2024. How can we build such a large project as the Mayan Train without bringing in water? Lopez Obrador spoke at the event. Moreno stated that the taps were still dry. Moreno called the promises of the former President "empty words". He brings water from another community by car every week so that his son, an university student, may bathe, wash the dishes, and flush toilets. Data shows that 70% of Campeche's population has access to running water. EMPTY SEATS and EMPTY Rooms The train has also struggled to draw the desired interest. Legal challenges, environmental rerouting, and land restrictions forced key segments to the interior and many stations were far from airports and city centers, making this a less viable option for tourists. In November 2025 I visited three stations, all of which were largely empty. On a weekday trip between Bacalar and Chetumal, fewer than 40 seats out of 230 were occupied. Lopez Obrador had projected that the train would carry 3 million passengers a year when it was finished. That number has since been reduced to 1.2 millions. The project budget has risen from $7 billion to over $25 billion. Revenue last year covered less than 13% operating costs. Six Tren Maya Hotels have also been built along the train route. The Calakmul Reserve, which is surrounded by jungle and has two pools, offers modern amenities. One night in November the hotel was only 20% full, according to a staff member at the reception. According to government data, these properties had an average monthly occupancy rate of between 5% and 24 % for most of the last year. The agency of the defense ministry that operates the hotels did not respond to a comment request. Claudia Sheinbaum, the current Mexican president, has refuted claims of a problem with 'the train' and called it a successful project. She regularly highlighted tourist packages in her daily press conferences and suggested that railway lines could be used to transport freight. The hotels have been a particular blow to Moreno. His family was displaced by the government decades ago, when it created the Calakmul Reserve. This UNESCO World Heritage Site is intended to protect the ruins and biodiversity of the once mighty Mayan Empire. Moreno said, "We've been here since 1980." "They removed us 1993." Now they are building hotels in places where we cannot even stay. Moreno said, "In press conferences, they always say that the poor are first." "But they take our rights." Reporting by Cassandra Garrison, Additional reporting by Daniel Becerril, Paola Chiomante and Daniel Wallis; Editing by Rosalba Brien and Daniel Wallis
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Norway suspends new industrial power grid access to the Arctic region due to surging demand
Norway announced on Wednesday that it will halt the 'allocation of power grid connections' to major industrial plants located in its Arctic region due to a 'capacity constraint caused by a burgeoning plan for new consumption from industries like data centres. Statnett, the national transmission grid operator, said that the temporary stop on processing new requests over a threshold of 5 megawatts (MW) applies to the area north of Svartisen near the city Bodoe. Statnett's Head of System Planning, Gunnar Lovaas said that "the electricity demand from Svartisen to the north will grow so rapidly in the coming years, the system may not be able to meet it." Statnett stated that the consumption for the affected region is currently 1,500 megawatts. There are also reservations to connect 1,150 MW new consumption, and 1,100 MW capacity in waiting. Grid operator says that existing reservations will be honored, but projects on the waiting list will not progress. The availability of cheap electricity from renewable sources, such as wind and hydropower, has made the north of Norway a favorite destination for companies that plan to build data centres with high power requirements or produce hydrogen and ammonia. Over a 10-year period, the consumption of electricity in the area north of Svartisen will?increase?by approximately 60%. Statnett stated that without a comparable increase in power generation, the region will need to import more electricity and face grid bottlenecks. It added that limiting large grid applications would allow for continued growth by smaller and medium-sized companies who are seeking access below a threshold called normal consumption of up to five megawatts, which is handled by local grid operators. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, Nora Buli)
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Gulf crisis affects Australian and New Zealand companies, from airlines to banks
As fuel prices rise, they are causing inflation and affecting consumer confidence, while also weighing on the earnings of Australian and New Zealand companies. Some of the companies from Australia and New Zealand have reported an impact on their business due to the Middle East conflict. Air New Zealand, New Zealand's flag airline, announced that it would be raising fares in response to the volatility of jet fuel prices. It was one of the first airlines to do so. The airline announced on April 7 that it would cut flights by 4% and 1%, respectively. Auckland International Airport, New Zealand: Auckland International Airport reported that flights to the Middle East from Auckland were affected. In March, the number of passengers on Middle Eastern routes dropped by 81% and seat capacity fell by 73% compared to a year earlier, according to airport operator. New Zealand-based a2 Milk has cut its profit forecast for fiscal 2026 as higher freight costs and supply chain disruptions due to conflict have affected the availability of the China-label infant formula product on its largest market. Cleanaway Waste Management - The company has slashed their full-year operating profit forecast by approximately A$20million ($14.17million), due to higher costs, lower activity and differences in timing of cost recovery. Cochlear: Cochlear, an Australian manufacturer of hearing implants, has lowered its profit forecast for 2026 due to weaker trading on developed markets. The company cited slower surgical volumes, lower hearing-aid referrals, and softer consumer confidence. The company stated that the Middle East War?has increased risks of order cancellations and delivery delays, as well as higher receivables. This has worsened margin pressure, and restructuring costs. Fletcher Building Fletcher Building in New Zealand said that it is indirectly affected by the Middle East conflict through supply chains, freight lines, energy costs and a broader economic impact on the construction demand throughout Australasia. Construction materials manufacturer expects to increase prices in all divisions as a result of passing on costs to its customers. The company will increase prices by up to 36 percent in plastics, where it says they are most vulnerable. Other divisions can expect a 1%-5% price hike. Fonterra New Zealand, the dairy producer, said that the conflict could impact its supply chain and increase its inventory and costs in second half of year while also contributing volatility in global commodities prices. National Australia Bank: National Australia Bank expects to incur credit-related impairment charges in the amount of?A$706 ($504.44 millions) during the first half fiscal 2026. NAB stated that the volatility of interest rates in the second quarter, the weaker New Zealand Dollar and the increase in provisioning would result in a reduction of the common equity tier one capital ratio for the group by approximately 20 basis points on March 31. The company also plans to apply a discount of 1.5% to its dividend reinvestment program for the first half to raise A$1.8 billion and help strengthen its balance sheet. Orora Packaging Company: Orora has lowered its earnings forecasts for its French division Saverglass, and canceled its share-buyback program. The company cited the impact of war. Due to the closures of shipping routes, the company also stopped bottle production in its glass production plant at Ras al-Khaimah (United Arab Emirates). Qantas Airways: Qantas Airways is Australia's national carrier. It has raised its fuel costs outlook for the second half of this year by as much as A$800,000,000 and announced that it had not yet begun its planned A$150,000,000 share buyback, citing volatile and sharply increased jet fuel prices. Qantas has increased fares to offset the rising cost of its flights and shifted them towards stronger routes, such as Paris and Rome where demand is strong. They have also reduced domestic capacity by 5 percentage points during the second quarter. Qube Holdings : Qube anticipates that the Middle East conflict will have an impact on its EBITA of between A$10 and A$20 million in fiscal 2026. The logistics company said, however, that recent events could encourage an increase in investment in alternative energy projects. This could be beneficial for the firm. Virgin Australia: Virgin Australia expects a fuel cost increase of A$30 to A$40 Million ($21.39 to $28.52 millions) in the second half of fiscal year 2026. In mid-March, the airlines announced that they were adjusting their fares due to rising costs in the aviation industry "exacerbated" by the Middle East situation. Westpac: Westpac, Australia's no. Westpac, Australia's no. Westpac's net margin for its Treasury and Markets division has been?weaker due to interest rate volatility related to the conflict. A weaker outlook is already leading credit provisioning. Westpac's provisioning of potential bad debt has reached its highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. Worley: Worley estimates that the negative impact of the Middle East Conflict on its underlying EBITA in fiscal 2026 will be between A$30 and A$40 Million. The Australian engineering company warned that it would not be able to grow its underlying EBITA by more than 5% in fiscal 2026 but continued to aim for higher revenue growth than fiscal 2025.
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Gulf markets mixed after Hormuz ceasefire dampens optimism
The major stock markets in the Gulf were?mixed? on Wednesday as caution?over?the continued closure of?the Strait?of?Hormuz offset?U.S. Trump's decision to extend the ceasefire indefinitely with Iran was a major factor. Trump announced on Tuesday that he will extend the ceasefire in order to facilitate further peace talks with the aim of ending the war, which has claimed thousands of lives and shaken the global economy. The U.S. Navy maintained its blockade on Iran's coastline and ports, which Tehran called an act of warfare. The Strait of Hormuz, which is responsible for around 20% of global oil and gas supplies, was largely a standstill Tuesday. Only three ships had passed the waterway in the past 24 hours, according to shipping data. Dubai's main stock index rose 0.3% thanks to a rise of 1.7% in Emirates Integrated Telecommunications. Air Arabia, however, fell 2.1%. In Abu Dhabi, the index increased by 0.2%. Saudi Arabia's benchmark Index fell 0.2% due to a 0.5% drop in Al Rajhi Bank. However, ?oil major Saudi Aramco rose 0.2%. Brent crude futures were flat at $98.47 per barrel, despite a swing between gains and losses. The Qatari Index fell by 0.1% and the Qatar Islamic Bank lost 0.7%. (Reporting by Ateeq Shariff in Bengaluru. Mark Potter edited the article.
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The ministry has stated that no Kazakh crude will be able to reach Germany's PCK Refinery after May.
Germany's economy ministry said on Wednesday that it has been informed by the country's oil company that no crude oil from Kazakhstan will be able to reach the PCK Schwedt Refinery in the northeastern part of the country after May. It added that the production and sale of petroleum products would not be affected. On Tuesday, three industry sources told us that Russia will stop oil exports from Kazakhstan via the Druzhba Pipeline starting May 1. This would affect PCK directly as it is one of Germany's largest refineries and also supplies Berlin. The Ministry, which controls Schwedt through a?trusteeship, stated that Schwedt’s?majority-owner Rosneft informed it of the move, and added that the Russian Government had not confirmed this yet. The German Economy Ministry issued a statement saying that Rosneft Deutschland was assessing the situation and would adapt to "any new situation". "Rosneft Deutschland understands its responsibility and will fulfill its obligations." аке, the existing options will also be used to ensure "security of supply" in Germany. The ministry said that the lack of Kazakh oil deliveries at the refinery did not "ultimately compromise the security of supply of petroleum products in Germany". Rosneft Germany was not immediately available to comment. (Reporting and editing by Matthias Williams, Thomas Seythal, and Christoph Steitz)
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Russian drones kill a railway worker in the south of Ukraine, according to deputy PM.
Oleksiy?Kuleba, the Deputy Prime?Minister of Ukraine, said that Russian 'drones' attacked infrastructure at Ukraine's Odesa Black Sea?port over night. Kuleba, a Telegram user, wrote that the attack damaged berths, storage facilities, rail infrastructure, and port operator's facilities. Ukraine's Seaports Authority said that the?hold on a cargo vessel was also?hit causing an fire. The authority stated on Telegram that based on preliminary information, no one was injured in the attack and 'the port is still operational'. Russia has targeted the maritime export routes of Ukraine more than four years since its invasion, and struck ports that are vital for foreign trade and?wartime economies. Kuleba stated that a Russian drone strike at a sorting yard at the Zaporizhzhia Live station in the "southern"?Zaporizhzhia area killed a assistant train driver. He added that the train driver had been hospitalized. According to the Ukrainian air force, Russia launched 215 drones towards Ukraine since Tuesday evening at 6 pm (1500 GMT), 189 of them were neutralized or downed. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue, Andrew Heavens and Anna Pruchnicka)
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MOL expects oil to be shipped via Druzhba to Hungary and Slovakia
MOL, the oil group of Hungary, announced 'on Wednesday' that the Ukrainian operator of the Druzhba Pipeline has officially informed MOL that he is prepared to resume crude oil transports from Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia. Hungary and Slovakia are no longer receiving Russian oil via Druzhba after a Russian drone attack damaged the pipeline west Ukraine. The Slovak and incoming?Hungarian prime ministers, Viktor Orban (who was ousted from office in elections on April 12) have accused Ukraine of delaying repairs. Kyiv denies this. Ukraine will resume pumping through the Druzhba Pipeline?on Tuesday?, according to an industry source. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had said that repairs were completed and asked the EU to unlock a 90 billion Euro ($105.74 Billion) loan which was halted due to a disagreement over the pipeline. MOL issued a statement saying that JSC Ukrtransnafta (the company that operates the Ukrainian section Druzhba Pipeline) has informed MOL officially that the repair work on the Druzhba Pipeline is complete and that the force majeure conditions that have been in place since 27 January 2026 have ceased as of 6pm on 21 April. According to the notification, JSC Ukrtransnafta has a ready-made plan to resume crude oil transport to Hungary and Slovakia. Peter Magyar, the Hungarian winner of the election on Sunday, urged Zelenskiy to reopen damaged pipelines as soon as they are functional and that Russia resume oil deliveries through them. ($1 = 0.8511 euros) (Reporting by Krisztina Than Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
TUI reduces full-year operating profit forecast on Iran war
German tourism group TUI cut its full-year operating profit (EBIT), and suspended their revenue guidance on Wednesday, citing the uncertainty caused by the ongoing Iran War.
It expects its underlying EBIT to be in the range of 1.1-1.4 billion euros for its fiscal year that ends September 2026 ($1.3-$1.6billion). It had previously expected an increase of 7-10% from the 1.4 billion euros in the previous year.
The group stated that the conflict in the Middle East, and the uncertainty about its duration, continue to limit consumer confidence in the near term.
The 'group's Markets + Airline & Hotels & Resorts has suffered from a partial shift of customer demand - away from Eastern to Western mediterranean destination in the wake if the Middle East conflic. Customers are exhibiting a heightened level of caution and booking nearer to departure dates. ($1 = 0.8511 Euros) (Reporting and Editing by Miranda Murray, Linda Pasquini)
(source: Reuters)