Latest News

El Nino will continue to test global energy markets: Maguire

The majority of major meteorological services predict that a strong El Nino pattern will set in by next month. This weather pattern is expected to impact global temperatures, rainfall trends, and lead to shifts?in coal consumption and natural gas usage across key regions.

El Nino, which could occur this summer and further stress the major power sectors due to the disruption of global energy flows caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure as well as damage?to the energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

This article will explain how El Nino can affect temperature and rainfall patterns in certain regions. It also explains how a strong pattern could exacerbate the stress on power systems that are already being affected by the fallout of the war with Iran.

SEA SURFACE -TEMPERATURE SHIFT El Nino, a climate pattern, causes a rise in sea temperatures across the Pacific Ocean. It can also cause heatwaves to rage through Asia as well as floods and colder temperatures elsewhere.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, the rapid rise in water temperatures has already been observed around the equatorial region of the Pacific this month.

In a recent WMO statement, the chief of climate predictions said that "climate models are now strongly synchronized, and there is a high level of confidence in the onset El Nino followed by further intensification months later."

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently recorded a temperature of 21 degrees Celsius, which is the highest ever reading since the beginning of the 1980s.

The steep rise in sea temperatures from the start of the year, compared with the long-term norm for this time of the year, indicates an intensifying El Nino.

ASIA'S COAL INDUSTRY IMPACT

El Nino has historically caused temperatures to be above normal in much of Asia and Oceania. It can also trigger long-lasting and intense heatwaves in South Asia due to its depressive effects on the monsoon rainfall.

According to Ember, a think-tank for energy, the demand for cooling systems in the power sector is expected to increase this summer throughout Asia. This region accounts for 53% of all global electricity consumption.

Asia's power system is heavily dependent on coal to generate electricity. Around 70% of India's electricity comes from coal-fired plants, and around 55% of China and Asia as a whole.

The coal exporters will benefit from the higher power consumption in Asia in this year, particularly Indonesia.

Indonesian coal exports are down 7% so far in 2026 compared to the same period of 2025. This is due to increased power production from clean energy sources, and lower energy consumption by key industries like cement producers.

As El Nino spreads, the demand for coal and its imports will increase.

Liquefied Natural Gas in Flux

Due to the fact that Asia is also a major consumer of "liquefied natural gases", LNG exporters could also expect a rise in Asian orders with rising temperatures.

Nevertheless, LNG is used more in industrial sectors than power generation in Asia. Therefore, LNG exporters might not see the same reaction as coal exporters to an increase in air conditioner usage. LSEG data also shows that Asian LNG prices are up from $550/metric ton before the Iran War to $868/ton now, due to the reduction in LNG supplies from Qatar, and the damage to Qatari LNG facilities.

These prices are comparable to the benchmark coal export price of Indonesia, which is around $104 per ton. The coal exported by Australia costs around $126 per ton. This means that power companies will view LNG as being too expensive compared to coal.

During times of tight power supply, European power companies tend to be more price-sensitive than their Asian counterparts.

In El Nino years large swaths, including Spain and Italy, are susceptible to severe heat waves. This can cause a spike in the demand for power from air conditioners. This can put strain on grids and raise regional electricity prices.

If heat stress persists this year, it will probably lead to a surge in LNG imports. This is especially true for Italy, where almost half of the electricity produced remains gas-fired.

AMERICAS AFRICA & MIDDLE EARTH

El Nino is known to cause warmer temperatures in Asia. However, historically it has caused?below average temperatures over the summer across North America.

As summer is usually when North America's demand for electricity is at its highest, lower temperatures could lead to a reduction in overall electricity consumption and gas power generation.

Gas inventories in Europe and other regions are increasing due to the need for more gas, so a lower North American gas consumption could free up gas for the LNG export sector.

The U.S. could see higher coal exports this summer if power generation is below normal in the U.S., particularly if demand for coal in South Asia and certain parts of Africa continues to be strong.

El Nino's impact on rainfall patterns in Latin America and Africa can lead to a reduction of hydro dam output, which is a significant part of the total power generation in these two regions.

Power firms in Latin America and Africa are increasingly turning to other sources of generation, such as renewables and gas-fired plants, to make up for hydro shortages.

El Nino's higher temperatures in the Middle East tend to increase gas-fired electricity demand through the summer. This may reduce the region's ability to resume exports this year, once a deal to end the conflict with Iran is signed.

While Asian nations will be most affected by an El Nino intensity this year, any sustained shifts in global weather patterns could affect all major power markets.

El Nino could bring back the same heatwaves, and the power usage spikes from previous years.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.

Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)