Latest News

The US waiver is unlikely to increase Russian oil exports, which are already at near capacity.

The United States has renewed its waiver of sanctions on Russian oil exports. The waiver of sanctions on Russian oil exports will not materially increase Russia's exports, as the shipments are already close to the infrastructure limit, according to traders citing shipping statistics. The United States extended a waiver this week that allows limited trade of Russian crude. U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent stated that the decision was made to help "energy-vulnerable countries" affected by the Iran Conflict, and reversed earlier plans to not renew the measure.

The waiver is the same as in previous versions. It allows purchases of Russian crude oil and petroleum products that are subject to U.S. sanction and were loaded on vessels by April 17. This effectively caps volumes and prevents access to newly loaded cargoes. The extension will not significantly increase exports as Russia already maximizes shipments to ease pressure on the oil system. Waves of Ukrainian strikes have targeted energy infrastructure and refineries since March. This has disrupted processing, allowing more crude to be exported. According to LSEG and trader data, exports and transit through Russia's western port increased by around 150,000 barrels a day (bpd) or about 9% in the first two week of May compared to April.

Between May 1 and 15, shipments of Urals, KEBCO, and Siberian Light Crude?from Primorsk and Ust-Luga, as well as carry-over volumes, averaged 2.35 to 2.4 mbpd, up from 2.2 mbpd. These levels are close to the capacity of the Transneft system, according to traders.

The system is overloaded. One trader stated that there isn't a lot of room to add more barrels.

Russia is boosting its crude oil exports due to repeated Ukrainian drone attacks that disrupt refinery operations. These attacks have a 'curtailed domestic processing and forced more oil onto the export markets.

Sources said that at the same time spare capacity is decreasing in the export infrastructure, which limits Russia's ability?to increase?flows despite waiver. Sources said that traders?added maintaining high export volumes allowed Russia to maintain production, previously reported as having declined in April.

Another trader stated that exports were being prioritized to maintain output. "But the ceiling has already been reached." (Reuter's reporting)

(source: Reuters)