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U.S. crude exports to Europe anticipated to fall in Jan as shipping economics weaken

U.S. crude oil exports to northwest Europe are most likely to slip early next year after hitting a record high in November, as the arbitrage for transatlantic shipments has knocked shut and freight rates have climbed, analysts stated this week.

The spread in between U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude and Brent futures has actually narrowed to a discount of around $3.40 per barrel over the last 2 sessions, the smallest closing spread because October 2023. A narrower spread makes it less financial to ship barrels from the U.S. throughout the Atlantic.

A discount of $4, in my viewpoint, is constantly the line in the sand between a huge export number versus a small export number, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.

The tighter spread comes as freight rates have increased and stocks in the U.S. - consisting of at the crucial storage center in Cushing, Oklahoma - have actually dropped to 23 million barrels, their lowest mid-December level in 17 years.

The decline in stockpiles implies U.S. barrels are being priced to remain at home.

At the end of November, the WTI/Brent spread had actually expanded to roughly $4.50 per barrel, motivating more circulations across the Atlantic Ocean to greater priced markets and driving U.S. crude exports higher.

However the spike in flows might be short lived. Freight rates for moving barrels from the U.S. Gulf Coast to northwest Europe have climbed up roughly $1 from November to around $3.80 per barrel this month, according to data from commodity prices firm Argus.

The narrowing WTI/Brent spread contributed to those greater freight rates which are being used to price shipments for late January arrival, according to Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby.

We would expect more minimal U.S. to Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp streams in the short-term to emerge, Crosby said.

The inclusion of WTI Midland crude in the outdated Brent index has meant that the spread between the 2 is significantly associated to freight rates, as the cost of Dated Brent is set by WTI Midland on many trading days.

U.S. exports bound for Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp struck a. record high of 771,000 barrels daily

(source: Reuters)