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Maguire: Low wind speeds can limit Texas's power system maintenance window

A persistent spell of low winds in Texas has forced power companies to increase their fossil fuel generation to record levels so far in 2025. This could lead power firms shortening or delaying planned maintenance breaks during the spring.

Around 75% of Texas is covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the nation's largest power grid. This includes the energy-intensive industrial corridors of the south coast.

ERCOT's power companies schedule maintenance of their plants in March and April, when the overall demand for power tends to drop between winter heating and summer cooling demand.

ERCOT estimates that 17% of its thermal power generation system capacity, or around 85,000 megawatts, is scheduled for maintenance this March. This would force certain plants to temporarily reduce their output.

The ERCOT planners had to maintain fossil fuels plant generation at near-record levels due to the below-average wind power production. This is reducing the time available for maintenance crews.

WIND WOES

Wind farms account for over a third (or more) of ERCOT’s total electricity generation in the first months of each year. This is because high winter winds speeds boost clean energy flows.

LSEG data shows that ERCOT's wind power production in February was 18% lower than February 2024 due to the low wind speed.

The wind power share dropped to 26% last month compared to 36% in February 2024.

In order to make up for the lack of wind last month, the power companies increased the generation from coal-fired plants by 49% compared to the same month in the year 2024. This is the highest February total since three years.

LSEG data show that ERCOT companies also increased output from natural-gas-fired units by 33% compared to February 2024. They have been forced to maintain high fossil-fuel-fired production so far in march as wind generation remains stunted.

FORECAST

Power traders expected a recovery in wind production in March and April after the low-level wind generation for February. These months are typically the most windy in the ERCOT System.

The forecast indicates that, although wind production increased at the beginning of March, it is expected to drop again in the next week.

The longer-term wind forecasts are less accurate than the shorter-term ones, and they are not relied on as much.

In February 2025, fossil fuel power plants will have to increase their share in ERCOT generation. This was previously 54% and 54% respectively in Februarys 2024 and 2023.

MAINTENANCE WINDOW

If wind power remains below average in this month, companies may find it difficult to finish the necessary maintenance on coal- and gas-fired power plants before summer arrives and temperatures and humidity levels increase.

While the maintenance of new power plants can be done in a matter of days, more complex and older systems may require several weeks to prepare for summer peak demand.

According to ERCOT the fossil plants of the ERCOT network can require extensive and regular maintenance.

The ERCOT system is currently approaching its lowest demand level for the year. Average temperatures in Houston are expected to be between 75 and 80 degrees Fahrenheit through mid-March. This is normal, and shouldn't lead to a sustained demand for air conditioners that are power-hungry.

The temperatures are expected to rise in May. This means that there are less than ten weeks left to repair the roughly 20 coal-fired plants, 17 oil-fired plants, and 162 gas-fired plant before they will be required to start up again.

This time of year there is plenty of room to reduce the output of multiple thermal power stations and accommodate maintenance.

The weak winds this year may mean that ERCOT’s fossil power network will need to maintain output for a longer period than usual, leaving maintenance crews a smaller window than normal to prepare the fleet for summer.

These are the opinions of a market analyst at.

(source: Reuters)