Latest News
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Los Angeles is flooded by an atmospheric river
Residents living in the foothills and canyons of wildfire-scarred foothills were urged to evacuate. The latest atmospheric river storm in the Los Angeles region, which is a huge airborne current of moist moisture that has been swept from the Pacific to the greater Los Angeles region, caused downpours up to an inch (2.54cm) or more per hour. According to the U.S. National Weather Service, it was predicted that the storm on Christmas Eve would?persist into Friday and create unsafe driving conditions in what is normally a busy holiday travel period. The weather service warned that "life-threatening" conditions would continue through Christmas Day in Southern California "where widespread flooding is taking place". The flash flood warning was posted across Los Angeles County up until 6 pm PST. It urged motorists to avoid the area if they were fleeing flooding or an evacuation order. Los Angeles officials have urged residents in the Pacific Palisades community to obey evacuation orders for 130 homes that are considered particularly vulnerable to mudslides or debris flows. Forecasters warned that the gusty winds accompanying Wednesday's heavy rain could topple trees and damage power lines. The storm was predicted to bring heavy snowfall in the Sierra Mountains' upper elevations. Ariel Cohen, a NWS meteorologist, said that 4 to 8 inches had fallen by 9 a.m. Pacific Standard Time in certain foothill areas. The Los Angeles City News Service reported numerous rockslides. Forecasts predicted that more than one foot (30.48cm) of rain would fall?over certain lower-terrain areas in the mountains by the end of this week. A rare tornado warning was issued for a small area of the east-central Los Angeles County, due to thunderstorm activity in Alhambra.
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Serbia's NIS receives US approval for sale of Russian stake
According to Serbia's RTS TV, the U.S. granted Serbian oil refiner NIS until March 24th to 'negotiate' the sale of their 'Russian owner's' stake. RTS stated that NIS did not have an operating license which would allow it to purchase and process crude oil. After a series waivers granted since January, the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions against NIS as part of broader measures taken against?Russian energy sector. The sanctions have stopped crude oil supplies through Croatia's JANAF pipe, which has shut down production at?Pancevo. Gazprom, the sanctioned oil unit of Russia's Gazprom, holds 44.9% of NIS. The Serbian government owns 29.9% of NIS, while the rest is held by employees and small shareholders. Aleksandar Vucic, the Serbian President, said that Gazprom is 'in talks' with Hungary MOL about a potential sale of its NIS majority stake. Reporting by Ivana Skularac Editing Mark Potter
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Kazakhstan's crude exports in December fell to a 14-month low following Ukraine drone attacks
Two market sources reported on Wednesday that Kazakhstan's exports of its CPC Blend oil, the country's flagship, will be at their lowest level in 14 months?in December, due to bad weather delaying efforts to repair Russian loading facilities after Ukrainian drone attacks last month. In recent months, Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure as it seeks lower revenues for Moscow. In this case, the damage caused by the explosion has affected oil sales both from Russia and Kazakhstan. Sources familiar with the loading program said that CPC Blend loadings would fall from 1.7 millions barrels per day to 1,14 million barrels daily. According to LSEG, this would be the lowest level since October 2024. On November 29, Ukrainian drones struck the Caspian pipeline consortium terminal near Russia's Black Sea Port of Novorossiysk. Only one of three jetties was operational, causing export delays. The bad weather has made it difficult to carry out the maintenance necessary to restore exports. OIL MAJOR RESIDE ON THE CPC TRADING TERMINAL TO EXPORT KAZAKH OIL The CPC Terminal is where oil from Kazakhstan's fields that belongs to U.S. and European?oil companies Chevron Exxon Mobil Eni and Shell is loaded. CPC's representative refused to comment on terminal operations and maintenance. Sources who asked not to be identified because they weren't authorised to comment publicly on this issue said that the reduction in loadings may be even greater depending on how well the repairs are progressing at the CPC terminal. After the drone attack, SPM-2 has been taken off line. Since November 29, only SPM-1 is operational. SPM-3 has been out of service since mid-November for maintenance. The weather was the main reason. Three separate sources in the trade have confirmed that a new round has been announced of cancellations. According to Kpler, the analytics firm, CPC Terminal, 26 cargoes were loaded with crude oil equivalent to?around 3,28 million metric tonnes, or 26 million barrels? between December 1 and 23. Kazakh production has to be moderated because there is only one SPM operational and the storage tanks are full. "Some buyers of CPC might have to cover because the North Sea is the only real alternative. Physical Brent has supported recent prices of CPC," Christopher Haines Energy Aspects head of oil said. Brent oil futures have risen by over $1 per barrel globally in the aftermath of the attack on November 29, and CPC Blend supplies have decreased as exporters of this grade have few alternative shipping routes. CPC expects to export CPC Blend crude in January, at a rate of around 1.65m bpd. One source said that exporters had been waiting since early December for SPM-3's return to service. They have adjusted their plans several times and diverted some volumes onto other routes including China and Baku-Tbilisi Ceyhan pipeline. (Reporting from Robert Harvey in London, and reporters in Moscow. Editing by Barbara Lewis.)
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CPC oil loading plans revised down by 33% in December due to bad weather delays
Two market sources reported on Wednesday that oil shipments via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium will drop by one-third in December, to their lowest level since October 2024. This is after an attack by a Ukrainian drone damaged the main CPC terminal. Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure over the past few months in an effort to reduce Moscow's revenue. In November, Ukrainian drones attacked the CPC terminal near Russia's Black Sea Port of Novorossiysk. The loading point is for oil from Kazakhstan fields, operated by U.S. oil giants Chevron, Exxon Mobil and Eni, and Shell. Sources familiar with the loading program said that the CPC blend loadings will drop to 1,14 million barrels a day, from the initial plan of?1.7million bpd. A CPC representative declined to comment on terminal operations and maintenance. The amount of time needed for repairs could affect the size of the cuts. They asked not to be named as they weren't authorised to make public statements on this issue. After the drone attack, SPM-2 has been taken off line. Since November 29, only SPM-1 is operational. SPM-3 has been out of service since mid-November for maintenance. The weather was a major factor in the delay. Three separate sources in the trade have confirmed that a new round of cancellations of cargo has been announced recently. According to Kpler, the CPC terminal loaded 26 cargoes containing around?3,28 million metric tonnes, or 26 million barrels of crude oil, between December 1 and 23. The price of oil has risen by $1 per barrel globally in the aftermath of the November 29th attack. Supplies of CPC Blend are also down as the grade's suppliers have limited other shipping routes. CPC expects to export CPC Blend crude in January, at a rate of around 1.65 millions bpd. One source said that exporters have been waiting since early December for SPM-3's return to service. They have had to change their plans several times and divert volumes to other routes including China and Baku, Tbilisi, Ceyhan pipeline. Reporting by Robert Harvey and reporters in Moscow, with editing by Barbara Lewis.
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Asia spot LNG prices rise on South Korean demand
Asian spot liquefied gas prices rose this week, as colder weather forecasts boosted the demand in South Korea. However, weaker buying across China has led to a 34% drop since 2025. Average LNG price for February deliveries to Northeast Asia Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) is $9.60, up from $9.50 in the previous week and at its lowest level since April 2024. The market is still under pressure from the continued soft demand in Asia, with its weak economic indicators. There are also plenty of alternatives like coal in China. Klaas Dzeman, a market analyst with Brainchild Commodity Intelligence, said that La Nina did not bring the colder phases some were expecting. He added that colder weather in South Korea and China over the next week could modestly increase demand. Martin Senior, Argus' head of LNG prices, said that spot buying has been observed in South Korea. The temperatures are expected to drop to two-year lows by December 26. Five cargoes have already been diverted to South Korea from?China in the past few weeks. EUROPEAN GAS Prices Up Gas prices in Europe rose slightly during thin trading ahead of Christmas as forecasts for a cold snap boosted demand. S&P Global Energy's daily Northwest Europe LNG Marker was assessed on December 23 at $9.001/mmBtu, a $0.53 reduction to the Dutch TTF Hub. Argus set the price at $9.001/mmBtu while Spark Commodities put it at $9.110/mmBtu. Looking ahead, the key LNG gateways to Central and Eastern Europe are announcing that they will be firm buyers in early Q1 2026. They want to relieve pressure on declining Russian pipeline gas?and LNG flows. Aly Blakeway is the manager of Atlantic LNG for?S&P Global Energy. She said that Asia and North Africa are not interested in spot volumes. Seb Kennedy, an independent analyst, reported that hedge funds have dramatically changed their position on TTF futures in the past year. They went from being net long at the beginning of February to being net short by November. Kennedy said that 2025 would be remembered for the transition of EU gas markets as a year when a ramp-up in LNG supply ended years of scarcity pricing and crisis. With more than 450 funds actively trading TTF now, speculative money will continue to have a significant impact on EU gas prices through 2026. According to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghanistan, in LNG freight, Atlantic rates have fallen for the fourth consecutive week, to $80750/day. Pacific rates are down to $71,250/day. The fall in Atlantic freight rates have narrowed U.S. arbitrage for the U.S. first-month to Northeast Asia via Cape of Good Hope. However, it still points towards Europe. Afghan said that the Panama route points marginally to Asia. Marwa Rashad reported. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Drop in food exports due to Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports
A Ukrainian farmer's association said that the Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports have already harmed food exports. This could result in a significant drop?in trade, despite attempts to divert shipments by rail. Ukraine is the largest exporter of corn and wheat in the world, as well as sunflower oil. Early in the nearly four-year war, a de facto Russian blocade worsened global food shortages. Since 2023, the majority of Ukrainian food exports has resumed. This month, Russian drones and missiles have been attacking the Odesa region's ports almost daily. Export capacity has decreased. The UAC union reported that some wheat exporters have already failed to deliver on their contracts for?delivery shipments this month. UAC estimates that at least one of three major export ports is idle or only operating at 20% capacity. The union also stated that logistics routes connecting the rest Ukraine to Danube River port have been damaged. Since the beginning of the war, river ports have compensated for the loss major seaports. "Russia is attacking our ports and reducing our export capacity .... UAC stated in a report that without deep water and river waters, our exports would decline dramatically. The article added that "some large traders have already begun to sort out quotas on railway terminals. This means that some grain from our country may be sent across the border." Exports of wheat, corn, and vegoil are declining. UAC reports that as of December 22 only 375,000 tons of wheat have been shipped out of the 1 million tons contracted to be shipped during the month. In the case of?corn 1.5 million tons out of 2 million tons contracted have been shipped. Sunoil: 275,000 tons of the 410,000 tons contracted had already been shipped. Exports for the entire month are not expected to exceed 350,000 tonnes. UAC reported that "some traders have defaulted on wheat, and some contracts are being rescheduled to January due insufficient capacity at the ports." In December of last year, Ukraine export 800,000 tons wheat, 2.6 million tons corn, and 378,000 tonnes of sunflower oil. According to the Ukrainian Economy Ministry, grain exports fell to 1.82 millions tons from 2.88million tons between December 1-27, last year. This was mainly due to lower shipments of wheat and corn. (Reporting and editing by Peter Graff.)
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India approves two new airlines to start operations after IndiGo's crisis
India has given initial approval to two airlines for them to start?operations. This comes after IndiGo, the largest airline in India, cancelled a large number of flights. These cancellations brought to light the lack of competition on the fastest-growing aviation markets. Minister Ram Mohan Naidu announced?on X late Tuesday that the civil aviation ministry had granted a 'no objection certificate' to regional airline alHind Air, and FlyExpress. He added that?the Government is working hard to encourage more competition on the domestic market. IndiGo's dominance was highlighted by the cancellation of 4,500 flights earlier this month due to poor staff planning. Tens of thousands were left stranded in airports across India as a result. Some analysts have called on the government to provide incentives to encourage more companies to operate. IndiGo's market share is?of approximately 65%. Air India Group, the rival airline, has about 27%. The rest is made up by smaller carriers. AlHind's website states that it aims to "begin operations" in southern India using a fleet ATR Turboprops. It is currently acquiring an Air Operator Certificate. FlyExpress also had a banner that said "coming soon." The government informed lawmakers in July that India had granted six air operators permits for operations to begin by 2020, including regional carriers. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Abhijith Gaapavaram)
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Turkish official: Libyan army chief of staff died in plane crash near Ankara, after fault reported by Turkish official
An official in Turkey said that a private 'jet' which crashed overnight and killed the chief of staff for Libyan army and seven other people on board had reported an electrical problem and requested an emergency land shortly before losing contact. Burhanettin Duran, head of the communications department, told reporters that the Dassault Falcon 50 jet informed air traffic controllers at?1733 GMT about an emergency due to an electrical failure. The black box was found early Wednesday morning, according to the Turkish interior minister. The internationally recognized government of Libya said that the dead included Mohammed Ali Ahmed Al-Haddad - army chief of Staff - and four members of his entourage. Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah described it as a "great national loss." Turkish officials confirmed that three crew members also died. A JET DISAPPEARED FROM RADAR WHILE LANDING Duran stated that air traffic control redirected the plane back to Esenboga Airport, and emergency measures had been initiated. However, the jet vanished?from radar around 1736 GMT, while it was descending towards landing, and there was no contact. The voice recorder and flight data recorder were found at 0245 and 0320 respectively. The analysis and examination of these devices has 'begun,' Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said to reporters at the crash scene near Ankara’s Haymana District. Yerlikaya said earlier that the?aircraft requested an emergency landing when flying over Haymana.?Additionally, its wreckage has been found near Kesikkavak Village. Duran stated that all authorities were continuing to investigate the cause of the accident. Libyan officials said that the jet had been leased and registered on Malta. They also stated that the ownership and technical history of the aircraft would be investigated as part the investigation. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus, Bernadettebaum and Ece Toksabay)
Maguire: Low wind speeds can limit Texas's power system maintenance window
A persistent spell of low winds in Texas has forced power companies to increase their fossil fuel generation to record levels so far in 2025. This could lead power firms shortening or delaying planned maintenance breaks during the spring.
Around 75% of Texas is covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the nation's largest power grid. This includes the energy-intensive industrial corridors of the south coast.
ERCOT's power companies schedule maintenance of their plants in March and April, when the overall demand for power tends to drop between winter heating and summer cooling demand.
ERCOT estimates that 17% of its thermal power generation system capacity, or around 85,000 megawatts, is scheduled for maintenance this March. This would force certain plants to temporarily reduce their output.
The ERCOT planners had to maintain fossil fuels plant generation at near-record levels due to the below-average wind power production. This is reducing the time available for maintenance crews.
WIND WOES
Wind farms account for over a third (or more) of ERCOT’s total electricity generation in the first months of each year. This is because high winter winds speeds boost clean energy flows.
LSEG data shows that ERCOT's wind power production in February was 18% lower than February 2024 due to the low wind speed.
The wind power share dropped to 26% last month compared to 36% in February 2024.
In order to make up for the lack of wind last month, the power companies increased the generation from coal-fired plants by 49% compared to the same month in the year 2024. This is the highest February total since three years.
LSEG data show that ERCOT companies also increased output from natural-gas-fired units by 33% compared to February 2024. They have been forced to maintain high fossil-fuel-fired production so far in march as wind generation remains stunted.
FORECAST
Power traders expected a recovery in wind production in March and April after the low-level wind generation for February. These months are typically the most windy in the ERCOT System.
The forecast indicates that, although wind production increased at the beginning of March, it is expected to drop again in the next week.
The longer-term wind forecasts are less accurate than the shorter-term ones, and they are not relied on as much.
In February 2025, fossil fuel power plants will have to increase their share in ERCOT generation. This was previously 54% and 54% respectively in Februarys 2024 and 2023.
MAINTENANCE WINDOW
If wind power remains below average in this month, companies may find it difficult to finish the necessary maintenance on coal- and gas-fired power plants before summer arrives and temperatures and humidity levels increase.
While the maintenance of new power plants can be done in a matter of days, more complex and older systems may require several weeks to prepare for summer peak demand.
According to ERCOT the fossil plants of the ERCOT network can require extensive and regular maintenance.
The ERCOT system is currently approaching its lowest demand level for the year. Average temperatures in Houston are expected to be between 75 and 80 degrees Fahrenheit through mid-March. This is normal, and shouldn't lead to a sustained demand for air conditioners that are power-hungry.
The temperatures are expected to rise in May. This means that there are less than ten weeks left to repair the roughly 20 coal-fired plants, 17 oil-fired plants, and 162 gas-fired plant before they will be required to start up again.
This time of year there is plenty of room to reduce the output of multiple thermal power stations and accommodate maintenance.
The weak winds this year may mean that ERCOT’s fossil power network will need to maintain output for a longer period than usual, leaving maintenance crews a smaller window than normal to prepare the fleet for summer.
These are the opinions of a market analyst at.
(source: Reuters)