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Take Five: Jackson Hole to Anchorage
Stock-market bulls are not facing any major obstacles at the moment, but the events following the U.S./Russia Summit in Alaska, the central bank party in Wyoming, and the result of Bolivia's elections may cause them to be cautious. This week's predictions come from Rocky Swift, Suzanne McGee, and Rodrigo Campos of New York; and Dhara Ranasinghe, and Naomi Rovnick of London. 1/ THE BEGINNING OR THE END? After Donald Trump's Friday meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and European leaders later on Monday, it is the turn of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to meet the U.S. president to discuss a possible peace agreement. Trump might try to press Kyiv to accept a settlement that is favorable to Moscow. Zelenskiy had already rejected the outline Putin's proposal, which included Ukraine giving up the remainder of the eastern Donetsk Region, where it controls only a quarter. Markets will hesitate to price in a war's end until at least a ceasefire is agreed. Europe is unlikely to accept Russia even if the peace in Ukraine returns. Investors are likely to continue to favor defence stocks for the time being. JACKSON HOLE IN ONE The summer is officially here on the financial markets. The Q2 earnings have been released, and the next batch of economic data won't be available until early September. Many money managers and traders will head to the beach for a vacation. Jackson Hole is the only thing that should worry you. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, will be among those attending this annual central bankers' gathering. The conference is taking place at a time when stocks are nearing record highs and Trump continues to fire pot shots at Powell. Jackson Hole could be disruptive. Powell's hint that there won't be a rate cut in September could cause the markets to sell off. A tone too upbeat from the Fed chairman may also fuel euphoria. Steve Sosnick is a strategist at IBKR. He says that bull markets can die from euphoria. STAGFLATION NATION While global stocks have been rallying, everything from the weak U.S. employment data to the troubles at the top of Federal Reserve has given a reason to bet against U.S. interest rate cuts. This means that it is not profitable to be a bear. BofA surveyed global investors and found that 60% believe U.S. stagflation will be the dominant market regime in three months. Strategists at Societe Generale believe that the benchmark S&P 500 index has outperformed a basket of stocks which perform well in stagflationary conditions, where inflation increases and growth slows. The business surveys that will be released next week, which are able to reveal economic trends before official data is released, may provide more information about whether U.S. Tariffs are pushing the largest economy in the world towards stagflation. SocGen expects Fed rate reductions to create a bubble in the stock market that could last until next year. OUTLIER 4 The Bank of Japan, in contrast to other central banks that are lowering rates in order to provide a "soft landing" for their economies, is attempting to increase borrowing costs. Next Friday's data on inflation will be closely scrutinized for any indication of when the BOJ will begin its long-promised tightening cycle. The BOJ has been aiming for a 2% increase since the beginning of 2013. The BOJ was the only bank to have pursued quantitative easing harder and longer than any other. The long road to normalisation was complicated by the uncertainty surrounding U.S. Tariffs and the concern about whether Japan saw the right type of price increase. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda justified the slower rate increases because the underlying inflation, which is based on wages and domestic demand, is still below central bank target. Pick Me Rodrigo Paz, a centrist senator, was the frontrunner in Sunday's Bolivian presidential election. The elections kick off a series of national and regional votes in Latin America, which will continue until late next year when Brazil elects a new president (or keeps the incumbent). Investors want to know if the "pink wave" of 2022 will bring more right-wing governments to power. Bonds in Bolivia rose ahead of the Bolivian elections on the hope that a political shift could help the economy recover from its brink. Local elections in Argentina are viewed as a measure of the popularity for President Javier Milei’s radical economic reform. Chile elects a new president in November. Next year, Colombia will elect its congress in March followed by a presidential election in May. Peru will hold a presidential vote in April, and Brazil in October 2026.
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Data shows that LNG cargoes from the Arctic LNG 2 project sanctioned travel east
According to Kpler's and LSEG's ship tracking data, four liquefied gas (LNG), tankers, carrying cargoes from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 Plant, sanctioned for Moscow's conflict in Ukraine, are heading east towards Asia. Kpler data shows that the tanker Christophe De Margerie is currently traveling along the Northern Sea Route, after having been loaded at Arctic LNG 2 in August. Kpler data shows that the tanker is currently located off the coast of Russia's northeast. The data revealed that the LNG tankers Voskhod & Zarya which had loaded on July 16 & 29 and were idling at Arctic LNG 2 since then, started moving eastwards on August 15. The Iris tanker, which had been heading west on 26 June after being loaded at the Arctic LNG 2 Project, made a U turn in early July. It is now sailing east. As part of an overall goal to reduce Russia's oil revenues, the four LNG tankers will be subject to U.S. sanction. Doing business with or trading with sanctioned companies can result in fines and penalties. Previously, the owners of the four tankers and their ship or commercial managers could not be contacted when they loaded cargoes for the Arctic LNG 2 Project this year. Arctic LNG 2, owned by Novatek, a 60 percent-owned Russian company, was to be one of Russia's largest LNG facilities, producing 19.8 million tons of LNG per year. The sanctions have hampered its prospects and the company has had difficulty selling LNG produced by the project. According to Kpler, eight cargoes were loaded onto LNG vessels last year. Some vessels discharged the fuel at two facilities. The first is located near the Arctic port Murmansk and the second is on the Pacific peninsula of Kamchatka, in Russia's east.
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Firefly Aerospace to launch rockets in Japan for Asia
Firefly Aerospace, the U.S. rocket manufacturer expanding its satellite launch services worldwide, is looking at the option of launching its Alpha rocket in Japan. A Japanese company that operates a spaceport on the northern island of Hokkaido confirmed this Monday. Firefly's Texas-based competitor to Elon Musk’s market leader SpaceX is planning an Alpha launch for Sweden. SpaceX made its Nasdaq debut this month. Space Cotan (the operator of Hokkaido Spaceport, located approximately 820 km 510 mi northeast of Tokyo) and Firefly have signed a preliminary contract to examine the feasibility of launching Alpha, a small-lift rocket, from the spaceport. Adam Oakes said that launching Alpha from Japan would allow Firefly to better serve the satellite industry in Asia, and provide a more reliable orbital launch vehicle for U.S. ally nations. Space Cotan's spokesperson Ryota Ito said that a feasibility study will be carried out to evaluate the regulatory hurdles and timeframe, as well as investments, for a launchpad for Alpha on Hokkaido. Ito said that the plan would need a Space Technology Safeguards Agreement (TSA) to be signed between Washington and Tokyo, which would allow American launches of rockets in Japan. Last year, the governments began negotiations, but they have yet to reach an agreement. The signing of a U.S.-Sweden TSA in June cleared the way for Firefly to launch from the Arctic. Firefly's Alpha flights have failed four times since 2021, the latest in April. Private rockets have only recently been developed. Most Japanese satellite operators are dependent on foreign rockets such as SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Rocket Lab’s Electron. Virgin Orbit, a U.S.-based company, had originally planned to launch from Japan's Oita Airport in the southwest. However, the plan was abandoned after Virgin Orbit went bankrupt. Sierra Space, based in Colorado, has a plan to land their spaceplane at Oita after 2027. Last month, Taiwanese company TiSpace attempted what was likely the first foreign launch on Hokkaido. However, the suborbital mission failed in less than a minute. The Japanese government aims to launch 30 Japanese rockets per year by early 2030s. It also subventions domestic companies such as Space One, backed by Toyota and Interstellar Technologies. (Reporting and editing by Kate Mayberry; Kantaro Kommiya)
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Qantas will pay a record fine of $58m for sackings due to pandemics, criticised by a judge
A court in Australia ordered Australia's biggest airline, Qantas Airways to pay A$90m ($58.64m) on Monday for illegally terminating 1,800 staff members during the COVID-19 epidemic and criticised its lack of contrition. Michael Lee, Federal Court judge, also criticized the litigation strategy of the airline in imposing this penalty. It was the largest ever imposed by a court in Australia's history. Qantas has made changes to their board and management, but Lee says that the subsequent expressions seem to be more in line with "the harm" caused by the case to the company rather than regret for the harm done to employees. He added: "I accept Qantas's apology, but I remain unconvinced this level of regret does not represent, at least significantly, the wrong kind." Lee stated that the penalty amount, which was about 75% of what he could set as the maximum, was crucial to make sure it "couldn't be perceived like the cost of business". The Transport Workers' Union, which brought the lawsuit against Qantas, will receive A$50 Million of the fine. Michael Kaine, national secretary of TWU said after the decision: "Against all odds, we took a behemoth... that had proven itself to be brutal, and we won." The decision was made Monday following a December agreement between the airline and its sacked employees on a compensation fund worth A$120m. Qantas senior management decided that during the pandemic of 2020, they would lay off 1,820 staff members and outsource their work to independent contractors. Qantas claimed it was a business decision, but in 2021 the Federal Court ruled that the move was "adverse" and prevented staff from exercising workplace rights or unionising in violation of Australia's Fair Work Act. Lee, in assessing Qantas’ actions, said that he wasn’t convinced it was truly repentant and criticized its culture, approach to public relations and litigation strategy. He said, for example, that Qantas announced it would appeal the court decision of 2021 "without any delay" to the High Court to review the 431 paragraph judgment. He said that when Qantas' appeal was rejected, it issued a "spin" on the result, while ignoring findings about its illegal conduct. He criticised Qantas for its conduct in litigation, including the decision to exclude Vanessa Hudson, current CEO and former Chief Financial Officer, from the witness stand. Lee stated that it was one thing to have a Qantas CEO issue a press release apologizing, but quite another to test written statements of contrition and recognition of wrongs in court. Maurice Blackburn Lawyers who represented TWU said that the penalty was the highest ever imposed by an Australian court for violations to Australia's Labour Laws. In a press release, the principal of the company, Josh Bornstein said that the record-breaking fine reflected the massive scale of Qantas’ wrongdoing. Shae McCrystal is a professor of labour law at the University of Sydney. She said that the fine reflected an unprecedented finding of adverse actions against so many employees. She said that adverse action cases were risky. It sends a clear message to employers, that if they violate the law then the unions could receive the penalties to help enforce the act. Qantas has said that it will pay the fine. Vanessa Hudson, Chief Executive of the company, said that "we sincerely apologize to all 1,820 employees who work in ground handling and their families." Qantas shares fell 0.4% to A$11.58 at the opening of trading. (1 Australian dollar = 1.5349 dollars) (Reporting and editing by Michael Perry, Clarence Fernandez, and Christine Chen from Sydney)
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This week in Asian Football
Discussion points on Asian football this week: KYOTO MOVE INTO POLE POSITION IN J-LEAGUE WITH TOKYO WIN Kyoto Sanga beat Tokyo Verdy by a score of 1-0 to move to the top spot in the J-League Standings. Kashima Antlers had to settle for a 1-1 tie with Avispa Fukuoka, and Kashiwa Reysol suffered a 2-1 defeat to Fagiano Okama. Rafael Elias scored the only goal in the game at the 66th-minute mark to put Kyoto on 48 points, ahead of Kashima in goal-difference and Kashiwa in third. The top seven teams are separated by four points. Machida Zelvia is in fourth place, Sanfrecce Hiroshima in fifth, Vissel Kobe, the defending champions, dropped to sixth following their 1-0 defeat to Yokohama FC, and Urawa Red Diamonds were in seventh. SHANGHAI PORT RECEIVES TOP SPOT AS RIVALS SHENHUA HELD Shanghai Port, the defending champions of the Chinese Super League, returned to the top spot after Kevin Muscat's team thrashed Henan FC 4-1 on Friday. Meanwhile, Shanghai Shenhua was held to a draw at 0-0 by Zhejiang FC in the Chinese Super League on Saturday. Port won its 14th match of the season with four goals from Wang Shenchao (Mateus Vital), Leonardo (Oscar Melendo), and Leonardo (Wang Shenchao). Shanghai Port, after the win and Shenhua’s result, now leads the standings by one point, with Beijing Guoan third, following their 3-1 win over Qingdao West Coast. COMPAGNO SCORE TWICE TO INCREASE JEONBUK’S K-LEAGUE LEEAD Jeonbuk Motors extended its lead at the top of the K-League to 17 points with a 3-0 victory over Daegu FC on Saturday. Andrea Compagno, an Italian striker, scored two goals before Jeon Jin -woo added a third goal with seven minutes left to seal the three points. Gus Poyet’s team increased their lead because Daejeon Citizen lost 2-0 to Gwangju FC. Gimcheon jumped up to second place as the army side thrashed FC Seoul 6-2. Goals from Lee Donggyeong (second half), Lee Dongjun (second half) and Kim Chan (second-half) helped seal the points. CHAMPIONS NORTHEAST UNION REACH THE LAST FOUR FINALISTS IN DURAND CUP NorthEast United, the defending champions, advanced to the Durand Cup semi-finals on Sunday after a 4-0 victory over Bodoland FC. Meanwhile Diamond Harbour, a second-tier team from the state of West Bengal, won a surprising 2-0 win against Jamshedpur FC. East Bengal advanced too, as Dimitrios Diamantakos' two goals helped his team to a 2-1 victory over rivals Mohun Bagan Super Giant in the Kolkata derby. Shillong Lajong FC won the semi-finals with a 2-1 win against Indian Navy. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong; Michael Church)
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Qantas fined 58 million dollars for illegally dismissing 1,800 employees during pandemic
Qantas Airways Australia's largest carrier was fined A$90m ($58.64m) on Monday for illegally firing 1,800 ground staff during the COVID-19 epidemic and replacing them with contractors. Michael Lee, a Federal Court of Australia judge, said that he wanted to make sure the penalty "couldn't be viewed as anything like a cost of doing business". In a summary judgement, Lee stated that "my current focus is to achieve real deterrence" (including deterrence of large public companies who might be tempted by the reward to continue with the contravening behavior because it may outweigh any downside risk from effective remedial actions). He said that A$50million of the penalty will be paid to Transport Workers' Union who brought the case for the 1,820 employees fired by Qantas due to the pandemic. This comes nine months after Qantas, the Union and the workers were sacked reached an agreement on a settlement of A$120 Million. Qantas' shares fell 0.13% at the opening of trading. (1 Australian dollar = 1.5349 dollars) (Reporting and editing by Michael Perry in Sydney, Christine Chen reporting from Sydney)
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Air Canada resumes flights following directive ending strike
Air Canada will resume flights Sunday, after the Canadian Industrial Relations Board acted upon a directive by the country's Minister of Jobs Patty Hajdu. The board acted in response to a strike by cabin crew that had caused around 700 flights to be suspended daily. The CIRB ordered Air Canada to resume its operations, and all Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge Flight Attendants to return to work by 2 p.m. The airline issued a press release stating that the time was 1800 GMT (1800 ET). The government issued the directive after moving on Saturday to end the strike, and to require binding arbitration in order to break an impasse contract. This was a move that the largest airline of the country had requested but which unionized flight attendants strongly opposed. After months of contract negotiations, Air Canada cabin staff walked out of the workplace on Saturday. This was the first time in 1985 that thousands of crew members had done so. The airline cancelled flights in anticipation of the strike, forcing over 100,000 passengers to find alternate travel arrangements or stay at home. Air Canada announced that flights would resume on Sunday night, but would continue to be cancelled over the next seven to ten days until the schedule is stabilized and returned back to normal.
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Canadian government ends Air Canada strike and seeks binding arbitration
The Canadian government moved on Saturday to end the strike of Air Canada cabin staff by asking the labor board to order binding arbitral proceedings. This was a move that Canada's largest airline had requested and the striking flight attendants were opposed to. Air Canada had to cancel 700 flights per day due to a dispute over wages. This forced more than 100,000 passengers to either find alternate flights or stay in their homes. At a press conference, Jobs Minister Patty Hajdu said that she had requested the Canada Industrial Relations Board impose binding arbitrage on both sides in order to end the strike immediately. She said that Air Canada indicated it would be four to five working days before it resumed full operations. This is assuming that the board grants the government's requests, as it does in most cases. The carrier offered flight attendants a 38% total increase in compensation over four years with a 25% rise in the first year. However, the Canadian Union of Public Employees deemed this offer insufficient. Attendants receive payment only when the plane is in motion. The union wants compensation for the time spent waiting between flights or helping passengers board. Wesley Lesosky said at a Toronto press conference earlier that day that no bargaining sessions were scheduled between the two parties, who have been in negotiations on and off for months. Ahead of the busiest airport in Canada, Toronto Pearson International Airport, hundreds of cabin staff waved banners, flags and pickets. Union officials urged members to gather outside the major airports in Canada, including Toronto, Montreal Calgary and Vancouver. Air Canada, based in Montreal, said that the flights suspended included those operated by Air Canada Rouge, its budget-oriented subsidiary. In a press release, Air Canada said that the stoppage would impact about 130,000 passengers a day. Air Canada Jazz, PAL Airlines and regional affiliates will continue to operate their flights as normal. According to the union, Air Canada has offered to compensate flight attendants at 50% of their current hourly rate for work that they are not paid. Sources close to the talks said the union was seeking parity with the Canadian leisure airline Air Transat. The flight attendants of Air Transat approved a contract in 2013 that included a total compounded increase of 30% over five year, making them the highest-paid in the Canadian industry.
Air Canada grounded after union refuses to return to work
Air Canada's fleet remained grounded Monday morning, after hundreds of planes were grounded due to a strike by flight attendants who refused to go back to work despite a government order. They also demanded that the airline return to the negotiating table.
The airline, which usually carries around 130,000 passengers daily, and is a member of the Star Alliance, was planning to ramp up its operations by Sunday night, after the labor relations board had ordered the union back to work and to begin binding arbitration.
The union refused, resulting in a standoff almost unheard of with the Canadian government who had requested the order to return to work.
The Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE), which represents 10,000 Air Canada Cabin Crew, had called for a negotiated settlement, claiming that binding arbitration would relieve the airline of any pressure.
They are on strike for better pay and for the right to be paid for their work at ground level, like boarding passengers. They are currently only paid when the planes are in motion, which has sparked some vocal support on social media from Canadians.
CUPE invited Air Canada to return to the table for "a fair deal" and called the order to end the strike unconstitutional. The airline announced that it would postpone plans to resume operations until Monday night and accused the union of illegally defying labor board.
To end the strike, the government can ask the courts to enforce an order to return to the workplace and to expedite the hearing. The minority government can also pass legislation, but it would require the approval of both houses of Parliament and support from political rivals. Both are on break until 15 September.
Dionne Pohler is a professor at Cornell University’s Industrial and Labor Relations School who specializes in dispute resolution.
Pohler suggested that another option would be to encourage bargaining.
Requests for comments from the government were not answered.
The Liberal government of Prime Minister Mark Carney moved on Saturday to end the strike, by asking the Canada Industrial Relations Board for binding arbitration. Air Canada requested the order and unionized flight crews were against it.
Last year, the former Trudeau government intervened to stop rail and dock strike that threatened to cripple Canada's economy. However, it is very rare for a union defy a CIRB Order.
The CUPE stated that its rejection was unprecedented, as it was made in accordance with the rules known as Section 107 which was invoked by the government.
Over the weekend, travelers at Toronto Pearson International Airport were frustrated and confused about when they could fly.
Italian Francesca Tondini said that she was a union supporter, even though she did not know when she could return to her home.
She smiled and pointed at the striking attendants.
The dispute between Air Canada and the cabin crews revolves around how airlines compensate flight attendants. Air Canada and most other airlines have paid flight attendants only when the plane is in motion.
Flight attendants from Canada and the United States are seeking compensation for their hours worked in recent contract negotiations. This includes tasks like boarding passengers.
American Airlines and Alaska Airlines have signed new labor agreements that legally mandate the carriers start the clock when paying flight attendants as soon as passengers board.
American Airlines' flight attendants will now be compensated for the time between flights. United Airlines cabin crews who rejected a tentative contract last month also want the same provision.
(source: Reuters)