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Maguire: Global energy exports slowing as trade concerns mount

The slowdown in the shipment of energy products is in line with the global economic downturn caused by the new tough tariffs that U.S. president Donald Trump has imposed so far this year.

The exports of crude, gasoline, diesel, and thermal coal have all decreased from January to April of 2024 as the economies of the importer countries slow down in response to increased trade uncertainty.

Export volumes of liquefied gas and chemicals have increased so far this season, but they are in danger of slowing down if the malaise that is already cooling the demand for fuels, oil and coal also chills the manufacturing and power sectors.

Here is a summary of the major energy products markets in 2025.

CRUDE CUTTS

Kpler, a commodity intelligence company, reports that the global export volume of crude oil between January and April was 4,93 billion barrels.

This total was 1.3% less than the same period of 2024. The main reason for this was a drop of 9% in China's imports, which is the world's biggest crude importer and user.

The United States (-14%) South Korea (-3%) Italy (-12%), and the Netherlands (-1%) are also major crude importers who have seen a drop in their purchases year over year.

Imports into India (up by 1%), Japan (5%) and Taiwan (7%) have helped to offset these declines.

Kpler data revealed that India's crude oil imports for January to April were record highs, as well as those in Malaysia, Lithuania and Myanmar.

The growth of crude sales in these markets is good news for exporters. All those economies will continue to see their crude purchases grow over the next few years.

It is not clear whether these growth markets can offset the declines in East Asia (China Japan South Korea and Taiwan).

East Asia is the largest crude importer in the world. It has been responsible for 40% of all crude imports over the last few years.

East Asia has purchased 37% of the total crude oil exports so far in 2025. This is the lowest share in six years.

In order to compensate for the lost East Asia crude volumes, it may be necessary to increase sales to new emerging markets.

FUELS AND COAL

The demand for gasoline fell by 5% between January and April compared to the same period a year earlier, due to economic concerns combined with the electrification of fleets. Kpler data show that only Singapore and Pakistan, among the top 10 gasoline importers in 2025 have seen an increase in their import volumes year over year.

All major markets including the United States of America, Mexico, Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Nigeria, have seen declines. Diesel, or gasoline, has also seen a decline in the first half of this year, as trucking mileage worldwide was affected by reduced shipment.

Diesel exports fell by 3% between January and April compared to a year earlier, reaching the lowest level for this period since 2022. Imports fell steeply in France, Turkey Malaysia and Mexico. This shows the wide range of declines in gasoil usage.

Diesel flows will continue to fall as a result of further contractions in the production and movement of goods.

Thermal coal exports fell by 6.7% between January and April compared to the same months last year, as major traditional buyers including China, India Japan South Korea, Taiwan, South Korea, and Taiwan reduced their purchases. Imports increased in Vietnam, Turkey, the Netherlands and Bangladesh - the main entry points for bulk commodities to mainland Europe.

Southeast Asia and North Africa are likely to be growth markets in the near future for coal exporters, due to their need for cheap energy.

Total coal shipments are expected to continue to decline in the next few years if China continues to reduce its overall dependence on coal imports.

Growth in LNG and Chemicals

The export volume of LNG and chemical products has been increasing in contrast to the trend seen for crude oil, refined fuels, and coal so far in the year 2025.

The total exports of LNG reached a record from January to April, with just under 143 million tonnes of super-chilled LNG shipped during this period.

This volume was just 1% higher than in the same months of 2024. Any sustained drops in LNG shipments in the next few months could easily push the year-to date volumes in reverse.

The sharp increase in natural gas prices in Asia, especially in comparison to coal, has slowed the demand for LNG so far in 2025. Any sustained decline in industrial activity in Asia will also further reduce LNG demand.

The volume of chemical exports increased by 4%, reaching three-year records, from January to April. This was due to a stronger demand for imports in India, Brazil and South Korea.

Any further economic weakness - particularly within manufacturing – would reduce demand for chemicals and ensure that the current pain being felt in the oil industry is spread across the entire energy sector.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)