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Maguire's key US clean energy charts to track Trump's tax impact

The U.S. president Donald Trump's tax and spending bill proposes drastic reductions to the clean energy tax credit that has been a major driver of the boom in renewable power at utility scale and battery capacity seen over the last three years.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the bill by a small margin last week. It must now be approved by the U.S. Senate to become law.

The final package is likely to be altered as a result of objections raised by several influential senators, notably those who oppose the proposed health care cuts.

There is still a lot of support among Republican legislators for the repeal of clean energy incentives from Biden's era.

Here are some projections of the U.S. energy production capacity, investment, fuel consumption and emissions, if current clean energy incentives were repealed by the new tax laws.

CAPACITY CRUNCH

The full repeal of clean energy incentives from the Biden era would dramatically reshape infrastructure for electricity generation in the United States over the next decade.

The REPEAT project, which analyzes the impact of federal policy on the energy industry, states that if the current incentives are removed the total cumulative growth in electricity generation capacity could be cut by half from now until 2035.

The REPEAT Project estimates, under the current incentive and tax credit scheme, that the total electricity generation would increase by around 100 gigawatts per year on average from now until 2035.

The existing incentives will increase solar system generation by approximately 46 GW/year. Wind capacity is expected to grow by 18 GW/year. Natural gas capacity will be increased by 14 GW/year. Battery storage capacity can also increase by 16 GW/year.

If all the clean energy tax credit programs were repealed, capacity additions could fall to 48 GW/year due to a steep decline in the construction of battery storage and renewable energy.

If all clean energy incentives were phased out, the growth in capacity of utility-scale systems would be reduced to 19 GW/year. This is less than half its current rate.

The growth in wind generation and battery storage would also be reduced by half, while the natural gas production capacity would fall by 16% to 12 GW/year.

GROWTH BRAKES

The growth of total electricity is expected to be slower under a scenario where all tax breaks are repealed. This is because lower incentives and tax breaks will lead to a slowdown in the expansion of electricity generation.

The current incentive structure would allow for an increase of approximately 30% in the total U.S. consumption by around 2035. This would amount to 5,275 billion kilowatt-hours by 2035.

If the current incentives were repealed, the slower expansion of capacity would limit the growth in electricity consumption to 5,066 billion Kilowatt Hours by 2035. This is 17% less than the rate if incentives remained.

This shortfall would have an impact on the overall growth of the economy, as a shortage in electricity will lead to higher energy prices for consumers.

CHANGING MIX

If clean energy incentives are dropped, the projected mix of electricity generation in the country will also change.

According to REPEAT data, under the current incentive system the percentage of clean energy sources in total U.S. electrical generation will rise from 40% today to 70% by 2035.

If the clean incentive is repealed however, the share of clean energy in the total mix would only reach around 54% by 2035 due to a sharply lower addition of clean power.

Dropping the incentives will also have an impact on fossil fuel consumption, which is currently in a downward trend but would increase again if clean energy policies from Biden's era are dropped.

The U.S. would see a drop of over 85% in the use of thermal coal, which is the most polluting fossil energy. This is because other cleaner forms of power will replace coal plants.

A full repeal of the clean incentives, however, would only result in a 14% reduction in the coal usage volumes by 2035 compared to current levels.

If the current incentives for clean energy are removed, natural gas usage by U.S. electric producers will increase dramatically.

REPEAT Projected data shows that the total demand for natural gas could rise by almost 30% by 2035 from current levels if clean incentive programs are eliminated. This compares with an estimated 18% increase in gas consumption if current clean incentive programs are maintained.

EMISSIONS & DEPENSES

Assuming that current clean energy incentives are maintained, U.S. greenhouse gases emissions will decline by 28 percent by 2035.

However, if these policies were repealed by 2035 the greenhouse gas emissions will only decrease by 8% due to a greater reliance on fossil-fuels.

The reduction of clean energy incentives could lead to changes in investments in the U.S. Energy System, and potentially wipe out billions in capital allocations.

According to REPEAT, if the current policies are not changed, consumers will also see their energy costs rise. The average household energy bill could increase by $400 per year by 2035.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)