Maguire: Key trends to watch as US seeks coal revival

The Trump administration’s pledges to provide federal loans and land leases for the power sector may spark a short-lived revival of coal's fortunes. Other factors will determine if a more sustainable recovery can take hold in the U.S. Coal sector.

The cost of transporting coal from new mines and power plants to existing ones, and the opposition to increasing emissions may prevent coal from making a comeback. This is despite federal promises for land and money.

Here are some key trends that track coal production, emissions, and consumption. These will help you gauge the success of the latest efforts to reverse coal's long decline.

CAPACITY TRACTORY

The amount of coal-fired power generation capacity is the single most important measure of the potential use of the fuel. The U.S. coal industry is the third largest source of electricity after nuclear and natural gas. However, its generation footprint has decreased so much over the last decade that it's impossible to quickly return to the previous highs.

Data from the energy think tank Ember revealed that between 2010 and 2024 U.S. coal-fired electricity generation capacity dropped by 43 percent or 145 gigawatts.

The approximately 194 GW coal-fired power plant capacity that is still in operation is at its lowest level since 2000. This means coal's maximum electricity production ceiling is now significantly lower than it was a decade earlier.

For coal to have meaningful long-term prospects in the U.S. it will be necessary to bring online a large amount of coal-burning power generation capacity.

Global Energy Monitor reports that only 0.4 GW new coal-fired power generation capacity is planned for the U.S.

This new capacity will increase the total coal-fired power generation capacity by 0.2%. It has no impact whatsoever on the total amount of coal used to generate electricity.

The coal-fired power plant's place in the U.S. energy mix would be permanently improved with only tens or hundreds of gigawatts.

Power SHARE

Although coal's capacity has declined steadily in recent decades, its share of U.S. electricity production has fluctuated and even experienced a revival over the last year.

Data from Ember revealed that coal-fired plants will generate around 16.3% (or a little more) of the electricity supplied by U.S. utilities between January and August 2025. This share was down from a record-low 14.7% during the same period last year. This rebound gives coal supporters hope that the U.S. energy system will be able to sustainably increase its use of the fuel.

Several factors were favorable to coal in early 2025 but may change its appeal as the U.S. energy mix moves forward. A surge in natural-gas prices was one of the key drivers for coal's use rebound in early 2025. This pressured utilities into cutting costs and increasing output by using coal-fired electricity instead.

In the first half 2025, coal was around $1.15 less per megawatt-hour than natural gas. This gave generators a strong reason to reduce gas production and increase their coal use.

Since June however, the coal price has flipped and is now a slight premium over gas. This has resulted to reverse power firms' burning patterns, resulting in coal losing out to gas.

To ensure that coal continues to be used in greater quantities than other fossil fuels in the future, it needs to maintain a cost advantage over gas. This will encourage power companies to continue using coal in their network instead of gas.

This discount is difficult to maintain, as coal has higher logistic costs than natural gas pipelined, particularly from distant mines to distant power stations, where trucks and trains are required.

RENEWABLES RISE

In the last five years, solar and wind power have surpassed previous records.

Utilities added more solar and Wind generation capacity over the last decade than any other source of power. This was due to the fact that government subsidies pushed the cost of adding clean energy below the costs of adding additional fossil fuel capacity.

Most utilities will still prefer adding more solar power due to the speed at which sun-derived energy can be added to grids.

Battery storage is also expected to be a priority for many utilities, since it allows them to maximize the use of their existing solar assets while potentially increasing power market revenue.

POLLUTION OPPOSITION

The coal's higher emission profile than other power fuels will also likely prevent it from expanding rapidly its current use footprint.

Ember data shows that coal-fired power plants are responsible for 40% of the total U.S. emissions in the electricity sector, even though they generate less than 20%.

According to Ember, coal-fired power stations emit approximately 950,000 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide for every terawatt of electricity produced. Natural gas plants, on the other hand, produce around 550,000 tonnes of CO2 per unit of electricity.

The hefty toll of pollution from coal, combined with the rapid growth rate of renewables in the U.S. utilities system will likely ensure that it continues to play a declining part in the overall U.S. energy system despite Washington's current support.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)