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Egypt's state grain buyer is under scrutiny for delayed payments and broken agreements
According to sources in the trade and industry, increased trade tensions, which earlier this year resulted in a decline in Egypt's imports of wheat, have caused a shakeup at Egypt's state grain buyer. A newly appointed leader is attempting to restore credibility. Egypt has operated a transparent procurement system for decades to ensure supplies of bread subsidies that feed tens and millions of people. It is also a cornerstone in social stability. Egypt is now one of the largest wheat importers in the world and a benchmark price for global markets. Six traders from global suppliers of vegetable oils and wheat to Egypt said that the newly formed military-linked agency Future of Egypt ditched formal tenders of its predecessor, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, in favor of informal negotiations. Six traders reported that delayed payments, repeated attempts to renegotiate or cancel contracts by the new agency when global wheat prices and vegetable oil fell were viewed as defaults by many traders. This was something unheard of in GASC. The six traders claimed that these practices caused strained relationships with their suppliers, and were the major reason for the dramatic drop in Egypt's imports of wheat in the first half 2025. Alexander Karavaytsev is a senior economist with the International Grains Council. He said that Egypt's public bids have "long been a barometer of global wheat prices". He said that the shift from indirect to direct negotiation under Mostakbal Misr had reduced transparency on the market and slowed down dealmaking. This may have dissuaded some suppliers. Three traders said that in recent weeks some global suppliers have resumed their sales to the agency after former GASC official Yousria Yousry Mohamed was appointed to oversee international purchasing. Three traders said that Mohamed, who was an official at GASC they had dealt with often, brought a level familiarity and professionalism to their dealings with the former state agency. Some suppliers said that her appointment had helped to restore confidence. They reported that payments were initiated on time and contracts completed. Future of Egypt, Egypt's Supply Ministry and the President's Office did not respond to comments for this article. In recent years, global grain traders like Cargill and ADM as well as Russian's Aston, Ukraine's Nibulon, and Soufflet, Bunge and Solaris were among Egypt's main suppliers. Companies did not respond when asked for comments on the recent changes in Egypt's grain buyer. Imports of wheat are a sludge According to data from shipping and trading, Egypt imported 5.2 million tons of wheat during the first half 2025. This is a quarter lower than the same time period last year. The government's portion of these imports fell by more than half, to approximately 1.6 million metric tons. This does not include any domestic purchases made by brokers or private companies. According to an Egyptian trader who reviewed records, at one point in April Egypt's wheat stock was just a little more than a month worth of grain in storage. Another two months were still being negotiated. According to data released by the government, this was far below the target of holding six months worth of grain and below the seven-months' worth held at mid-2024. Two people claimed that the buffer was restored after the local harvest in late April. One source said that the agency had slowed down imports to prepare for this year's large harvest. We could not determine if payment issues under Future of Egypt contributed to the lower stock. Karavaytsev predicted that Egypt's imports will recover in the second part of the year. He said that the country's crops were likely to shrink in the next season. This would be a challenge for this new agency. Karavaytsev added that the government's purchases and activities in the private sector would be more efficient. He also predicted that Egypt's grain stocks will contract for a 3rd consecutive year, 2025/26. They are expected to reach a multi-year minimum. Egypt is looking to reduce its dependence on wheat imports in the long run, but a sudden decrease could expose the country to price volatility internationally, logistical disruptions or poor harvests which would quickly drain its strategic reserves. Inflation, currency volatility, and increasing debt have all been persistent economic pressures on the country in recent years. Critics claim that President Abdel Fatah Sisi’s increasing reliance on military enterprises is stifling private sector investment. PURCHASES COMING TO LIGHT IN PORT Future of Egypt, unlike GASC, does not reveal its deals. The six traders said that the purchases are only revealed when the vessels arrive in port, which makes the process less transparent. They asked to remain anonymous to discuss commercial deals. The six traders stated that while negotiating initial contracts can be straightforward, it is the execution of those contracts which poses the greatest challenge. Renegotiations and unclear commitments, as well as delayed payments, undermine trust. They said that such issues have caused multiple disputes in the last few months. Two people with knowledge of the situation said that a Ukrainian supplier filed arbitration after deals fell through because Future of Egypt did not issue letters of credit to them. Two people familiar with the matter said that a Ukrainian supplier initiated arbitration proceedings after deals collapsed due to Future of Egypt not issuing letters of credit to the supplier. Few suppliers would risk such a move. Future of Egypt did not complete the payment, and the cargo was subsequently resold at a loss to another buyer. According to one source, the Ukrainian company has initiated arbitration proceedings against one of UK-based trade associations which handles such disputes. Could not independently verify if the dispute was arbitrated informally or formally, or if it involved an intermediary instead of the buyer. Future of Egypt, and the Ukrainian firm did not respond when asked for comments. The Federation of Oils, Seeds and Fats Associations, an arbitration association, stated that it had no open cases with Future of Egypt. Meanwhile, the Grain and Feed Trade Association, which is also involved in arbitrations, failed to respond to inquiries. A French wheat supplier also threatened legal action after Future of Egypt did not open a letter of credits for a shipment in May. Three traders claim that the shipment was loaded in July, after Future of Egypt had opened a letter of credits. Since then, the supplier has sold more cargoes. Traders say that Future of Egypt is too important a customer to lose. Another global supplier said that, despite the change in leadership, it was delaying deals until the company saw reliable, consistent trade, backed up by contracts with enforceable terms and accountability.
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Chevron is confident about its energy future and oversupply: Bousso
One would not expect a CEO of a large oil company to brag that he is more confident than ever when warnings are rife about the imminent collapse of oil prices. Mike Wirth, CEO of Chevron, announced the updated strategy on Wednesday. He dismissed concerns about an oversupply of oil in the short term, and expressed confidence in the long-term prospects for the sector. This was a far cry from the doubts that surrounded the industry a few decades ago when the momentum began to build towards the shift away from fossil fuels to low-carbon energy. The strong support for fossil fuels by Donald Trump and his "energy-dominance" agenda has provided Chevron, like its Big Oil counterparts, with a significant tailwind. Wirth said to investors, "Never before in my career have i seen a more confident outlook." "The best of the future is yet to arrive." The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that oil prices will average $55 per barrel in 2019, down from $69 last year. NEAR-TERM RETRENCEMENT But what a company claims is only one part of the story. What the company does is more important. The spending plans of oil and gas companies are a good indicator of their risk appetite, both near and long term. Many energy projects like offshore oilfields and liquefied gas (LNG), for example, require billions in funding and years to build. Chevron has therefore reduced its capital spending by $1 billion compared to previous guidance, resulting in a range between $18 billion and $21 billion annually until 2030. U.S. oil's second largest company is also retrenching, albeit modestly, in response to the uncertainty surrounding the balance between supply and demand on the global market. International Energy Agency currently predicts a massive oversupply of 4 million barrels a day next year, approximately 4% of the global supply. If accurate, this could cause oil prices crater. Chevron’s slight retreat suggests that its thinking is more in line with OPEC analysts who are expecting supply to roughly equal demand next year or other who believe there will be a modest oversupply. BOOM LONG-TERM Chevron’s actions appear to be more in line with its messaging. The company is clearly betting that oil demand will continue to grow and it's a race against time to compensate for dwindling supplies. Chevron has plans to increase oil and gas production between 2% and 3% annually until 2030. Currently, it produces approximately 4 million barrels equivalent to oil per day. Wirth stated that the amount of investment needed to close the oil gap is equivalent to five Saudi Arabias over the next ten years. Chevron has stated that it will keep the production of the Permian shale in America at 1 million bpd until 2040, while reducing its investment from $4.5 billion per annum to $5 billion. Chevron claims that it can maintain production with improved drilling methods, without drilling new wells as fast as they are currently doing. This is a bold prediction given the standard practices of shale drilling or fracking. Chevron's not the only major shale oil producer that has said it can sustain and grow shale oil production profitably for many years. ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips and others have also indicated that they are confident of doing the same. EXPLORATION BET Chevron’s increasing investment in oil and natural gas exploration is perhaps the best way to demonstrate its long-term optimism. The high-risk and high-reward nature of this business demands heavy investment. It can take a decade or longer to go from the first drilling to production. Chevron has expanded its exploration activities in recent months to include Namibia, Egypt, and South America. In the coming years, Chevron plans to double its annual budget for exploration. Kevin McLachlan was hired by the company in October as its new exploration chief. Do we have to expect a similar situation as at the beginning of this century when massive, unrestrained investments in new gas and oil resources led us to overspend and get poor returns? Most likely not. Big Oil companies have a laser-like focus on profitability. They've instituted cost-saving measures that will allow them to make money even if the oil price drops below $50. Chevron wants to reduce its structural costs between $3 and $4 billion dollars by 2026. This includes laying off 15% of the global workforce. Chevron, and its peers, should be able to invest with more confidence in the future despite the peaks and valleys of the market. This, in turn indicates that the market will likely remain well-supplied for the foreseeable. All of this does not take into account the energy transition. The timing of Chevron’s strategy update coincides with the IEA’s new long-term outlook, which suggests that oil demand could continue to rise into 2050. Previously, it was thought that the demand would plateau by 2030. It may sound good to Big Oil, but the reality could be harsh for Chevron and other companies in the oil industry if energy transition gains momentum again as many predict. Subscribe to my Power Up newsletter to receive my weekly column, plus additional energy insights and links trending stories in your mailbox every Monday and Thursday. Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
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Tanzania President names new Prime Minister after disputed elections
Tanzania's leader appointed a loyalist to the position of prime minister on Friday, following a controversial presidential election that sparked clashes and led to hundreds of protesters being killed by rights groups. As expected, the parliament approved the nomination of Mwigulu Mchemba as former Finance Minister in a vote that was almost unanimous. This is because President Samia Hassan had been declared the clear winner of the vote on October 29. Nchemba said that he will work hard in his new position. He also served as a minister in Hassan Magufuli's cabinet. Tanzania has forecast that its economy will grow by 6% in this year. This growth is partly due to infrastructure projects, such as road, rail and power generation. Budget expenditures are expected to increase by about 12% in this fiscal year, despite cuts to international aid including from the United States. Opponents claim Hassan’s government rigged the election last month, which caused unrest due to her exclusion from main contenders. Hassan has defended the fairness and integrity of the elections. She was in office when Magufuli passed away, but she is now out of office. The U.N. Human Rights Office believes that hundreds of protesters were killed, but the main opposition party as well as some human rights activists claim security forces killed over 1,000 people. The government said that the death toll of the opposition was exaggerated, but it hasn't given its own number. Nchemba is a member in parliament since 2010. He was also deputy secretary general of Hassan’s Chama Cha Mapinduzi party (CCM). Richard Mbunda is a political analyst at the University of Dar es Salaam. He said Hassan had shown his trust in Nchemba by not letting him lose his position in cabinet reshuffles after she took power. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Winning, Philippa Fletcher and Vincent Mumo Nzilani)
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South Korea bans flight as 500,000 students take crucial university entrance test
On Thursday, more than half a millon people took the grueling university entrance test in South Korea. Police were mobilised to make sure they arrived at the test site on time. All flights were also halted for a half-hour. The highest number of candidates in seven years took the test that is required to gain admission into the top universities. The majority of candidates were born between 2007 and 2008, when births surged because the time was deemed auspicious to have a child. Incheon International Airport was also prohibited from landing or taking off between 1:05 pm (0405 GMT), and 1:40 pm, to prevent any disturbances during the section on listening comprehension of the English exam. The decision affected 140 flight, including 65 arrivals and departing international flights. Flight tracking showed aircraft flying near airports after the Transport Ministry banned aircraft from flying below 3,000 meters. The financial markets and offices opened one hour later than normal to make sure test candidates arrive on time for the nine-hour examination that is seen as critical for success in a hyper-competitive world. Yeseon Kim said, as she waited outside the test center where her daughter took the exam: "This exam is a goal that I have had for almost 20 years. It's also a fresh start." This year, 554174 people were registered. That's 6% more than last year. It is the highest number since 2019. In 2007, 496,000 babies were delivered, a significant jump which halted the steady decline that had been occurring since mid-1990s. South Korea has one of the fastest aging societies in the world, despite its birthrate rising to 0.75 by 2024.
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Singapore Airlines' profit for the first half of the year slumps due to Air India losses and rising costs
Singapore Airlines announced a steep drop in its first-half profits on Thursday. The company was hit by losses suffered at Air India in India, increased costs, and intense competition across major markets. The flag carrier of the city-state reported a half-year profit of S$239 (US$184.67) million for the six-month period ended September 30. This compares to S$742 millions a year ago and Visible Alpha's consensus estimate at S$341.9. Despite a decline in net fuel prices, total expenditure increased by S$170 millions. The airline's expansion of capacity and inflationary pressures on several cost components contributed to the increase. Interest income for the company was also reduced by S$103m due to lower cash balances and rate cuts. Shares of results from affiliated companies plummeted S$417m, mostly because of Air India’s losses. Air India's performance was not included in the group's earnings one year ago. Singapore Airlines started accounting for the Indian airline's performance in December 2024 after the completion of the integration with its joint venture Vistara. Singapore Airlines owns a 25,1% stake in Indian carrier. The airline announced a special interim dividend of 3 Singaporecents per share, and a 5 Singaporecents interim dividend.
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The EU Court has overturned Hungary's export controls on materials
The EU Court of Justice ruled on Thursday that the export controls implemented by Hungary on construction materials and raw materials violate EU regulations. The European Commission sued Hungary for a rule that required the Hungarian government to be informed of any construction material exports. The state has the option to purchase the materials. This restriction, according to the Commission, violates the principle of free circulation of goods in the 27-nation EU as well as the exclusive competence of the bloc in the area of commercial policy. Hungary said that the measure was needed to protect critical infrastructure by ensuring the supply of construction material. The court rejected Hungary's arguments, siding with the European Commission on all complaints. The court stated that "(the) measures are intended to restrict exports of building materials... which is prohibited by the principle on free movement of goods." Hungary also failed to show that scarcity of construction materials and raw materials was "a real and serious threat" it said.
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Gulf oil markets reduce prices
The major Gulf stock markets fell on Thursday morning, mainly due to persistently low oil prices and a series of disappointing corporate earnings reports. Oil prices, which are a major catalyst for Gulf financial markets, fell on Thursday. This was a continuation of the losses that were made in the previous session. A report showing increased crude inventories at the U.S. confirmed concerns that global supplies would be more than enough to meet the current fuel demand. OPEC's report on Wednesday showed that the world oil market would see a small excess in 2026, after OPEC+ production increased and other producers supplied more fuel. This is a change from their earlier projections, which predicted a deficit. Saudi Arabia's benchmark oil index fell 0.9%, mainly due to a drop of 0.9% in the Saudi Aramco. Salik Company's 1.8% decline weighed on Dubai's main stock index, which fell 0.5%. The toll operator posted a higher third-quarter profit year-over-year, but a decline sequentially from the previous quarter. Presight AI Holding, which reported a quarterly profit increase, plunged 9.8% despite the index falling 0.4% in Abu Dhabi. The Qatari Index fell 0.4% and the Qatar Islamic Bank lost 1.3%. (Reporting and editing by Topra Chopra in Bengaluru, Ateeq Sharif in Bengaluru)
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Brazil's ag exchange has completed the country's 1st physical grains derivative settlement for 15 years
The Brazilian Agricultural Exchange (BAB), announced on Thursday, had recorded the first physical settlement in Brazil of a grain derivative in over 15 years. Corn was delivered to a railroad terminal in Rondonopolis in Mato Grosso. Eric Cardoni, chief executive of BAB, a platform for agricultural trading that started operations in September, said that the volume of trading at BAB increased dramatically last month. Cardoni stated that the first delivery of corn was 1,800 metric tonnes, which is equivalent to three contracts. Cardoni also said that another 9,000 metric tons (15 contracts) will be delivered later this month. The market appreciated the physical delivery. "There's a lot of interest in using the settlement method for these first contracts," said Cardoni. He is a former grain, oilseed and trading director with Louis Dreyfus Company. BAB was created to connect the derivatives markets directly with the physical grain markets in the region. Its main investor is logistics firm Rumo. Cardoni stated that BAB is interested in physical deliveries, which are no longer available in grain derivatives traded at the B3 exchange. This is because participants can manage both risk and sales using the same instrument. He added that the other derivative contracts available for grains in Brazil were settled by financial settlement. Cardoni explained that BAB's platform allows for bilateral negotiations between buyers, sellers and removes the so-called basis risks -- the price difference between the Brazilian market versus Chicago Board of Trade Futures. BAB stressed the importance of local hedging tools in light of global volatility, such as Chinese tariffs on U.S. soya beans that impact Brazilian premiums. To simplify the hedging process in Brazil, the platform offers standard contracts that are traded in Reais. Cardoni added that other contracts are available for December delivery. After initial trades in Septembre, Cardoni noted, volume increased 14-fold by October. (Reporting and writing by Roberto Samora, Sao Paulo. Editing by Brad Haynes & Matthew Lewis.
Six US states to keep an eye on as rising gas costs drive a return of coal: Maguire
The rise in natural gas prices has prompted several U.S. utility companies to increase coal power production and reduce gas-fired generators so far this season, reversing years of declining coal use and emissions.
If natural gas prices continue to rise, the six states of Arkansas, Indiana Michigan, Ohio South Carolina, and Wisconsin will have a greater influence on the future direction of coal usage in the United States.
These six states are able to switch between coal and gas as the market dictates.
The U.S. wholesale gas prices are up by 44% in the last year and nearing multi-year highs. This means that utilities will likely switch from coal to natural gas in areas under pressure to control power bills despite a rise in demand.
GAS PRICE INFLATION
LSEG data shows that benchmark U.S. Natural Gas Futures averaged $3.57 per Million British Thermal Units (mmBtu), so far in 2025.
This compares with an average of $2.47/mmBtu in 2024. It means that consumers who use a lot of gas will be hit by a sharp increase in prices in 2025, even though lowering the price has been a priority for nearly all U.S. authorities.
LSEG data shows that several utilities are burning more coal to cut costs. This is because coal prices in the U.S. this year averaged about 20% less than gas and only 7% higher than 2024's average.
Ember data show that the total U.S. coal fired electricity production in the first seven months of this year was up around 16% compared to the previous year, reflecting the increased coal usage across the nation.
In response to cost-saving measures undertaken by several utilities, the U.S. generated electricity from gas decreased by around 4% over the same period.
The "Key 6" States
Several states have increased their coal consumption and decreased their gas usage by a much greater amount than the U.S. national average. This has had a significant impact on national trends in coal and gas consumption this year.
Ember data indicates that the combined coal-fired production across Arkansas, Indiana Michigan Ohio South Carolina and Wisconsin (the "Key 6") has increased by 26% in 2025 while their collective gas consumption has decreased by 9%.
The coal use in these states peaked in the first months of 2025 when gas prices soared by a large amount year over year, and utilities that had both coal and natural gas assets shifted their output to coal.
Arkansas, Michigan, and Wisconsin have all reduced their gas-fired generation by more than twice the national average. They also increased coal-fired production to multi-year-highs.
Gas prices are at their highest level since 2023, and they will continue to rise due to increased heating use and the strong demand for LNG from exporters. Cost-conscious utilities may switch to gas in the coming months.
Emissions Toll
The U.S. power industry will see a new surge in emissions as coal consumption increases.
Ember data indicates that coal-fired power generation in the U.S. emits approximately 950,000 metric tonnes of CO2 per Terawatt Hour (TWh), as opposed to 550,000 tons from gas-fired power generation.
The pressure to control costs will continue the trend of reducing gas consumption when gas prices rise, and plugging any generation shortages that result with an increase in coal-fired production.
In the short term, the increased federal support for coal-fired electricity and coal mining is expected to maintain momentum in favor coal. It will also provide utilities with political cover against consumers who are opposed to a coal revival.
In the long run, the continued increase in coal pollution, along with the retirement of coal plants that are decades old, will force utilities, particularly as the size of renewables and battery storage increases, to reduce coal power production again.
The coal-fired production across the Key 6 States - and in general - is expected to continue growing.
These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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(source: Reuters)