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BofA defers the BoE rate cut to June due to rising energy prices

BofA Global Research has pushed back its call for the Bank of England to begin cutting rates to June. It says that rising energy prices are reviving 'inflation risk and have clouded policy outlook.

Wall Street brokerages, who had previously penciled in a reduction in March and in June, are now expecting a quarter-point cut in both June and September of this year.

Higher energy prices, driven largely by geopolitical tensions, in the Middle East have increased uncertainty about?inflation, and the BoE rate-cutting trajectory.

The conflict has thrown off expectations for inflation in the near term. Inflation had slowed to 3.0% in January, and was expected to move towards the BoE's target of 2% in the months ahead.

Brent crude has returned to $100 per barrel after almost reaching $120 earlier in the week.

BofA stated that "we could see an earlier reduction in April if prices of energy revert by then. However, there are risks for further delays this year and a lesser number cuts if the conflict continues."

It added that the BoE will likely maintain its easing bias, but would also stress that uncertainty is increasing, and that policy tightening still has a high bar.

Goldman Sachs Standard Chartered, and Morgan Stanley also delayed their Bank of England easing predictions, now expecting the initial cut?into the second quarter, as the Iran War lifts energy 'prices and inflation -risks.

BofA's note on Thursday said that the central bank will be able to make a more accurate decision about whether or not it should ease policy further. The key factors influencing this decision are the downside risks of growth and the weakening labour market.

An official from the Office for Budget Responsibility stated that Britain's inflation could end the year at a rate of around 3% rather than the roughly 2 percent assumed by fiscal forecasters. This is if the current energy prices are maintained. (Reporting by Akriti Shah in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy)

(source: Reuters)