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Maguire: Power sector trends show a growing divide between EU and Russia

The rapid divergence in power generation and emission trends between the European Union and Russia highlights a growing energy gap between some of Europe's biggest economies and the former leading supplier of energy products for the region.

Data from the energy think tank Ember show that for the first time in 2024, Russian power producers emitted more CO2 from the use of fossil fuels than their counterparts in the EU.

This change in emission loads is primarily due to the substantial and durable changes that have been made over the last three years to Europe's power generation systems, which has led the EU to become less dependent on imported energy products for its electricity.

The higher Russian fossil emission load also reflects Moscow’s increasing dependence on fossil fuels to generate electricity, which reached record highs by 2024.

The contrast in power trends highlights the differences between the energy systems of Russia and the EU since the Russian invasion of Ukraine 2022, which triggered sanctions and an acceleration of energy transition across Europe.

The fact that Europe is less dependent on imports of power products also shows how Russia has a much smaller influence over its European neighbors than it did a few short years ago. This could weaken Russia's position in any future peace talks.

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Ember data show that in 2024 Russian power companies will emit 536 millions metric tons (CO2) of carbon dioxide from the use of fossil fuels, compared with 520 million tons by EU power companies.

The deviation in emissions trends since then shows the magnitude of the generation shifts in Europe over the last three year.

Total EU power emissions from fossil-fuels fell by 31% between the years 2022 and 2024, as sanctions against Russia after the invasion of 2022 roiled regional supplies of gas and caused a spike in electricity prices.

Gas supplies are tightening and wholesale electricity prices will more than double in 2022 compared to the average of 2020 and 2021. This has forced European power companies and industrial gas consumers to reduce their gas-fired production.

According to Ember, the total gas-fired electric generation in Europe by utilities has dropped 19% between 2022-2024. Gas consumption by industry also decreased sharply.

The European power producers have also reduced coal-fired production by 40% between 2022-2024. This has resulted in a 27% drop since 2022, making it the lowest fossil fuel-fired electricity output ever recorded.

During the same time period, businesses and power companies made significant investments in the production of clean energy and the electrification and use of energy, reducing the dependence on fossil fuels in the region.

RUSSIAN GROWTH

While the EU has seen a reduction in fossil fuel usage, Russian counterparts have increased their reliance on fossil fuels.

Gas-fired production of electricity in Russia will grow by 2% between 2022 and 2024 while coal-fired production will rise by 12%, both reaching record highs.

The share of fossil fuels in both the Russian and EU power systems has increased.

In Russia, fossil fuels accounted for 64% of electricity production in 2024, up from 63% in 2012.

In the EU this share has dropped from 39% to 29%, a record-low in 2024.

The EU's share of fossil fuels is likely to continue to decline in the future as the capacity for renewable energy continues growing.

Russia, a major producer in the world of coal, crude oil and natural gas, may have to increase its consumption of these commodities at home, if Europe continues to restrict purchases.

This could lead to the development of drastically different energy systems, which may reduce the potential trade ties that Russia and the EU have in the future.

These are the opinions of a market analyst at.

(source: Reuters)