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India's weak demand for Urals oil leads to a widening of discounts on the oil
Sources say that the differentials between Russian Urals crude and other grades are under pressure due to the weakening value of the grade in India's ports. Three sources in the oil trade reported that discounts for Russian Urals crude have tripled in Indian ports since August compared to Brent dated as U.S. sanction drive key buyers from Moscow-supplied fuel. According to traders, the December Urals cargoes are currently trading at a discount of $5-$6 per barrel compared to Brent. This is about three times greater than the $1-2 seen in August. PLATTS WINDOW There were no bids or offers reported on the Platts Window for Urals CPC Blend, or Azeri BTC on Wednesday. Five sources have confirmed that U.S. sanctions will dismantle what is left of Litasco. Litasco was once Russia's largest oil trader, and a competitor to Swiss oil giants and top Swiss houses. (Reporting from ;)
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CMA CGM, the shipping giant, resumes Russia trade by bringing in food cargo
The company, CMA CGM of France, which is the third largest container shipping line in the world, said that it has resumed limited service to Russia. This includes transporting food. It did so three years after the company had withdrawn from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. CMA CGM, like other Western companies, ceased its activities in Russia. It stopped its shipping services, and divested its stakes in port terminals. CMA CGM stated in an email that the CNC subsidiary of the group has re-launched shipping foodstuffs to Russia, such as coffee and citrus fruits to meet customer demand. It said that the activity was very limited and strictly conducted in compliance with the sanctions regime. The French newspaper Ouest France reported that CMA CGM did not use its own fleet, but booked space on other vessels to transport its containers. CMA CGM has joined its Swiss rival MSC to ship cargo to Russia. MSC continued to ship humanitarian, medical and food items during the conflict in Ukraine.
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Chinese cruise ships avoid Japan amid diplomatic dispute
Sources and cruise schedules reviewed indicate that Chinese cruise operators are avoiding Japanese ports due to a diplomatic dispute between Beijing and Tokyo. This is expected to boost tourism to South Korea. The tensions sparked by the recent events have been cited by tour and port agents. You can also read our blog posts. Japan's new premier could lead to Chinese tourists being redirected from Japan to South Korea. Sanae Takaichi, Japan's new prime minister, told Japanese legislators earlier this month that a Chinese attack against Taiwan could lead to a military response. Adora Magic City is a Chinese cruise liner that visits the touristy island of Jeju in South Korea as well as Japan. According to an announcement posted on the website of South Korea’s Jeju Province, the ship has altered its December schedule to avoid the Japanese ports Fukuoka Sasebo, and Nagasaki, as originally planned. The notice stated that the cruise ship would spend between 31 and 57 hours at Jeju instead of its usual nine-hour schedule. Unofficially, a Jeju official said that the cruise operator asked for a schedule change without giving any reason. The official declined to identify himself as he wasn't authorised to talk to the media. It seems that they are working on a Plan B." Adora Cruises has not responded to a comment request. Japan is counting the costs of the diplomatic conflict. Tokyo-based East Japan International Travel Service said this week that it had lost 80% its bookings for remainder of year. Lee Yong Gun, CEO of South Korean port agent Eastern Shipping told reporters that other Chinese cruise ships were also in discussions to reroute. Lee stated that "if the China-Japan relations further deteriorate and China excludes Japan’s products, culture, and tourism, then I expect Korea to benefit from this." He said that the operator of the "Dream", which departs the Chinese city Tianjin wanted to avoid Japan by rerouting to a South Korean Port in Incheon, or Busan, over the next two weeks, but there wasn't enough time to do so, citing an earlier discussion with the operator. Tianjin Orient International Cruise Line which operates the ship did not reply to a comment request. Details about cruise ships skipping Japan to stay longer in Korea, or even considering it due to diplomatic disputes, have never been reported. According to Qunar, an online travel agency, South Korea was the most popular destination among Chinese tourists in terms of bookings of international flights over the weekend between November 15-16. Many Chinese airlines are offering refunds for routes to Japan. This is expected to increase air travel in South Korea. Jeju Air's executive said that the South Korean budget airline is expecting an increase in Chinese tourism, even though there has been no immediate impact. The chief executive of the South Korean tour agency that caters to Chinese tourists said on Wednesday he just received a request from a Chinese client who asked if an event originally scheduled for Japan in early next year could be relocated to South Korea. He said that "South Korea is clearly going to benefit from this dispute." He said that for the moment, they were in a waiting-and-seeing mode. South Korea welcomed more than half as many Chinese tourists in 2013 due to the territorial dispute between Beijing, Japan and some islands. The Chinese advisory against traveling to Japan has caused South Korean shares in travel-related companies this week to soar. Travel agency Yellow Balloon Tour has seen a 24% increase, and Shinsegae, a department store operator, has seen a 6% gain on the hope that Chinese tourists will switch to South Korea. Travel industry experts said that it may take some time for Chinese tourists to increase in South Korea. Kim Seol Yeong, a tour operator based in Jeju for Chinese cruise tourists, said that the diplomatic dispute had only occurred a few days earlier. It might take some time before we see an increase of Chinese tourists visiting Korea. Luna Wang, 34, from Hangzhou, China, had considered returning to Japan this year, but she may opt for South Korea now. "Now, it seems that Japan is no longer safe for Chinese to travel." She said, "I guess the only option that is good for me to travel to Korea is to go to Japan." The founder of Moment Travel, a Chinese company in Chengdu, noted a dramatic shift in perceptions regarding travel to Japan. Su Shu, the founder of Moment Travel in Chengdu, said that there is now a feeling that anyone who travels to Japan is a traitor. Reporting by Ju-Min Park in Seoul; Casey Hall in Shanghai; and Sophie Yu, in Beijing. Editing by Anne Marie Roantree, Thomas Derpinghaus, and Anne Marie Roantree.
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Lithuania Railway Company stops Lukoil shipments from Russia's Kaliningrad
Due to U.S. Sanctions, the Lithuanian state-owned railway group LTG announced on Friday that it would stop shipments of oil cargoes from Russia's Lukoil into the Russian exclave Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad, located on the Baltic Sea Coast, receives most of its supplies via rail transit via NATO member Lithuania. It can also receive direct shipments via ocean from its own nation. Last month, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions on Lukoil over the conflict in Ukraine. The OFAC also warned that foreign companies who do business with this Russian group would face consequences if they continued to do so after the November 21 deadline. LTG Group announced in a Friday statement that "cargoes of Lukoil or related companies, oil or petroleum products, will no longer be shipped by rail from Russia to Kaliningrad". The Kremlin said that Lukoil’s international interests must be respected. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, Andrius Sytas)
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Since August, the US sanctions have hit India, Russian Urals prices in India have tripled.
Three sources in the oil trade reported that discounts for Russian Urals crude have tripled in Indian ports since August compared to Brent dated as U.S. sanction drive key buyers from Moscow-supplied fuel. Last month, the United States imposed their toughest sanctions to date on Russia's oil sector. They targeted Lukoil & Rosneft. The deadline for companies is Friday to end all business with the two oil producers. Urals crude is a staple feedstock for Indian refiners, since 2023 when Moscow diverted flows to Asia following the European Union's ban on Russian energy. Traders said that supplies to India will fall dramatically as most refiners stop buying. Reliance Industries, India’s largest private refiner and India’s largest refinery, has stopped importing Russian crude to its Jamnagar facility in Gujarat as of November 20, according to a spokesperson for the company. RUSSIA OIL IMPORTS FROM WESTERN POINTS ARE NEAR OPTIMAL LEVELS Despite sanctions, Russia’s oil exports to western ports are still near their peak, thanks to OPEC+ production allowances, and refinery shutdowns caused by drone strikes in Ukraine. According to traders, the December Urals cargoes are currently trading at a discount of $5-$6 per barrel compared to Brent. This is about three times greater than the $1-2 seen in August. Prices for Russian oil delivered into Indian ports are usually set on a "delivered-ex-ship" basis. This means that the price does not include transport costs or other charges paid by the seller. Traders said that the price of Urals crude on board at Russian ports depends on the cargo and supplier. It is estimated to be around $20 per barrel. The majority of shipments are handled on "shadow fleets" linked to Russia, which allows Moscow to keep a portion of the differential in price. The freight rates are stable despite the sanctions against vessels. Aframax tankers carrying 700,000 barrels to Baltic ports cost around $7.5 million per one-way trip, while Suezmax trips are between $8 and $8.5 million, traders reported. They added that Russian oil shipments are still expensive but manageable, as there are enough ships available and Urals is trading below the EU's $60 barrel price limit. Conor Humphries (Reporting and Editing)
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Asia spot prices slightly rise amid high inventories and muted demand
The Asian spot price of liquefied gas rose slightly last week but remained in the $11 range due to well-stocked inventories. Average LNG price for delivery to North-East Asia in January Industry sources estimate that the price per million British thermal unit was $11.66 this week, up from $11.10/mmBtu in the previous week. Toby Copson is chairman of Davenport Energy Partners. He said, "The APAC Market remains largely flat or bearish. This is due to (a) a later start to the winter and unseasonably warm temperatures, which are muting seasonal heating demand." He added that "Geopolitical risks premiums have been mostly priced in. So, unless there are any new supply bottlenecks it will trade within this range until we see an extreme and prolonged drop in temperature." The premium of Asian spot gas to European prices at the TTF hub has been increasing for months. This is mainly due to an increase in charter rates, which meant that bringing cargos from Europe to Asia would be more expensive. Alex Froley said, Senior LNG analyst at ICIS. The wholesale gas prices in Europe fell on Friday morning, as the demand for gas was curtailed by warmer temperatures and expectations of a stronger wind output. Prices increased earlier this week due to a cold snap that drove up heating demand. Froley stated that the spot gas prices at TTF hub have remained fairly stable, and the first cold snap of winter has not caused them to significantly increase. Aly Blakeway is the manager of Atlantic LNG for S&P Global Energy. She said that while Europe's storage inventories have decreased, they are still lower than in previous years. On the back of a strong demand for gas to generate electricity, LNG demand is continuing to grow in the East Mediterranean, including Turkey, Greece and Cyprus. Blakeway explained that this, combined with Egypt's rapid procurement of some cargoes, forced sellers to hold back their offers in order to compete for these premium markets. S&P Global Energy's daily North West Europe LNG Marker price benchmark (NWM) for cargoes to be delivered in January, on an ex ship (DES) basis, was $9.994/mmBtu as of November 20. This represents a $0.49/mmBtu reduction from the price at TTF hub. Spark Commodities set the price for December at $10.60/mmBtu. Seb Kennedy, an independent gas analyst, noted that the number of hedge funds trading TTF derivatives reached a record high of over 450 in the past week. This shows the popularity of the EU market for commodity investments. He added that funds bought more TTF-short positions during the week ended November 14, bringing their net position to near zero. According to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan, the U.S. arbitrage for the front-month to North-East Asia via Cape of Good Hope points to Europe while the Panama Canal arbitrage is open strongly to Asia. The Atlantic LNG rates have risen to their highest level since December 20, 23 at $130,750/day. Pacific rates reached their highest level since August 20,24 at $78,750/day. Marwa Rashad is the reporter. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Sources: US threatens to cut off intel and weapons to force Ukraine into peace agreement
Two people with knowledge of the situation said that the United States had threatened to reduce intelligence sharing and arms supplies to Ukraine in order to pressure it to agree to the framework for a U.S. mediated peace deal. Sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity said that Washington was exerting greater pressure than in previous peace talks, and that it wanted Ukraine to sign the framework of the agreement by next Thursday. One source said, "They want the war to end and they want Ukraine to pay for the price." Washington presented Ukraine with a plan of 28 points, which endorsed some of Russia's main demands during the war. These included that Kyiv cede more territory, reduce the size of its army, and be banned from joining NATO. A senior U.S. delegation met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday in Kyiv to discuss the path to peace. The U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and the Army Public Affairs chief traveling with the delegation described it as a successful meeting and said Washington was seeking an "aggressive deadline" for signing a document between U.S.A. and Ukraine. (Reporting and writing by Tom Balmforth; editing by Philippa Fetcher and Peter Graff).
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Freeport LNG Texas's export plant will take in more natural gases on Friday, according to data.
LSEG data, as well as regulatory filings, show that the U.S. liquefied gas company Freeport LNG was on schedule to receive more natural gas in Texas on Friday. This is a sign of one of three liquefaction train's return to service following its Thursday shutdown. Freeport has been one of the most closely monitored U.S. LNG plants in the world because its changes in operations have caused price fluctuations in global gas markets. Gas prices in the U.S. typically fall when flows to Freeport decrease due to a reduced demand for fuels from the export facility. Prices in Europe usually rise due to the drop in LNG supply available on global markets. The Freeport outage contributed to a 2% decline in futures prices on Thursday in the U.S. Freeport is not responsible for the drop in prices that occurred in Europe. Freeport informed Texas environmental regulators on Friday that Train 1 was shut down Thursday because of a problem with the compressor system. Freeport officials had no comment to make on the incident, but did note that the plant has loaded its 1,000th shipment this week. LSEG reported that gas flow to Freeport was on track to increase to 1.9 billion cubic foot per day (bcfd), up from 1.3 bcfd Thursday. This compares to an average of 1.9 billion cubic feet per day over the previous seven days. Three liquefaction plants at Freeport can convert about 2.4 billion cubic feet per day of gas to LNG. A billion cubic feet of natural gas can supply five million U.S. households for one day. Reporting by Scott DiSavino. (Editing by David Goodman, Mark Potter and Mark Potter.)
What is the issue in US discussions with Ukraine and Russia
U.S. officials will meet with negotiators in Saudi Arabia from Ukraine and Russia to discuss details of the proposed 30-day ceasefire for strikes on energy infrastructure as well as an overall peace agreement. Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine will not be present in the same meeting room. On Sunday night, officials from Kyiv will meet with the U.S. delegation in Riyadh. Then, on Monday, the Russian and U.S. negotiators will meet. Last week, U.S. president Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in order to promote his efforts to end the three year war in Ukraine. Here are some issues that Russia and the U.S. are currently discussing:
ENDING ATTACKS ENERGY INFRASSTRUCTURE
According to the White House, Trump and Putin agreed last week that "the movement towards peace will begin", with a 30 day pause on attacks against Russian and Ukrainian energy installations.
The ceasefire, which was narrowly defined, has been cast into doubt. Moscow claims that Ukraine struck an oil depot in southern Russia, while Kyiv says Russia struck hospitals, homes and knocked power out to some railways.
Zelenskiy stated that Kyiv will draw up a listing of facilities which could be included in the partial ceasefire. He said that the list could not only include energy infrastructure but also rail or port infrastructure. A moratorium on energy-infrastructure strikes may favour Moscow over Kyiv. This is because it will prevent Ukraine from launching long-range attacks on Russian oil installations, which has been a major way to inflict pain on its adversary.
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
In a U.S. press release, Trump said that during his phone call with Zelenskiy, he had suggested the U.S. might help manage, and even own, Ukraine's energy infrastructure and nuclear power plants.
Zelenskiy stated that he and Trump had discussed the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia plant in Ukraine, Europe’s largest nuclear facility. Russia and Ukraine both accuse each other of putting the nuclear plant at risk by their actions.
Zelenskiy stated that Kyiv was ready to discuss U.S. participation in modernizing the facility if it returned to Ukraine.
Ukraine will benefit long-term from regaining the control of this facility that generated 20% of all its power production before the war.
Zelenskiy warned that it would take at least two and a quarter years to bring the plant up and running due to the numerous technical problems it faces. According to industry sources, it would take huge amounts of investment.
BLACK SEA SHIPPING The Kremlin stated that Putin had "responded in a constructive manner" to a Trump proposal on protecting Black Sea Shipping and they have agreed to start negotiations.
The United Nations and Turkey helped to mediate a deal in July 2022, the so-called Black Sea Grain Initiative. This allowed for the safe exportation of 33 million metric tonnes of Ukrainian grain across Black Sea despite war.
After a year of protesting that the exports of its food and fertilizer were severely hindered, Russia resigned from the agreement.
According to the World Bank's Global Commodities Outlook for April 2024, despite Black Sea shipping risk, both Russia & Ukraine shipped grain to global markets with no major issues. The World Bank also stated that the Black Sea Grain Initiative collapse had minimal consequences.
PRISONER EXCHANGES Russia & Ukraine each exchanged 175 prisoners-of-war on Wednesday. Russia also handed over 22 severely wounded Ukrainian prisoners as part of a gesture of goodwill, according to the Russian Defence Ministry.
Zelenskiy said that the exchange was one of the biggest of its kind, and the 22 Ukrainians who were involved in it were "severely injured warriors" and people whom Russia had persecuted because of fabricated crimes.
NATO MEMBERSHIP
Putin wants Ukraine to drop its official ambitions to join NATO.
In its constitution, Ukraine states that joining NATO is a priority and that this would be the most effective and efficient form of security that it could receive as part a peace agreement. John Coale said last month that the United States has not ruled out a potential NATO membership for Ukraine, or a negotiated re-entry to Ukraine's pre-2014 border. This contradicted comments made by Pete Hegseth, the U.S. defense secretary, a day before.
Hegseth told Ukraine's allies in Brussels that a return to Ukraine’s borders prior to 2014 was unrealistic, and that the U.S. didn't see NATO membership as part of a resolution to the war. This sparked concerns that the U.S. made concessions before the talks began.
Trump said that he did not believe Russia "would allow" Ukraine to join NATO. Trump has blamed Joe Biden, his predecessor for pushing this idea. However, it was originally backed by Republican president George W. Bush back in 2008.
UKRAINE POST-WAR SECURITY
Ukraine wants guarantees about its security in the future, but this is at odds with what Kremlin demands.
Kyiv, and its European backers, agree that the key to Kyiv's security is an unfettered Ukrainian army. Moscow has said that a reduced military in Ukraine is one of the conditions for a peace agreement. Britain and France have a plan for a deterrent force made up of foreign ships, planes and troops that will be stationed in or around Ukraine following the signing of a peace agreement. The details of the force's operation and its members are still unclear.
Some Russian officials, however, have stated that they would not be able to accept such a force.
WESTERN SANCTIONES, ELECTIONS Putin said that he wanted the Western sanctions to be eased as well as a presidential vote in Ukraine.
Kyiv is yet to hold any elections in 2019 due to the martial law that governs wartime. Ukrainian officials say that it would be impossible to hold elections during the war.
Officials in Ukraine say that they are a sovereign country and it's not Moscow’s place to tell them when their elections will be held.
Biden led the United States in broad sanctions against Russia. These steps include measures to limit its oil and natural gas revenues. They also include a $60 cap per barrel for Russia's oil. Sources say that since Trump returned to power, he has studied ways to ease sanctions in exchange for Moscow ending the conflict. Trump also hinted at the possibility of large-scale tariffs and banking restrictions on Russia until peace was achieved.
RUSSIAN HOLDED TERRITORY
Russia wants control of all four eastern Ukrainian regions that it claims as its own. It also wants the Crimean Peninsula, which it annexed and seized in 2014. Unnamed sources at a private business meeting with Putin in Moscow on Tuesday told Russia's Kommersant that Putin wants the U.S. formally to recognise Luhansk and Donetsk as part of Russia, along with Crimea.
Ukraine has already acknowledged that it is not possible to recapture some of the occupied Ukrainian territories by force, and that they will need to be returned diplomatically in due course. Kyiv, however, says that it will not recognise Russian sovereignty on Ukrainian territory.
On Sunday, Trump's National security adviser Mike Waltz answered a question about whether the U.S. was willing to accept a deal that allowed Russia to retain Ukrainian territory. He replied:
We must ask: Is it in our national interests? Is this realistic? "Are we going to force every Russian from every inch of Ukrainian territory?"
UKRAINIAN RESOURCES Kyiv has been in talks with Washington about a deal that would give the United States a financial reward for the development of Ukrainian resources, namely rare earths which are used to make electronics. The deal fell apart after the disastrous White House meeting that took place between Trump and Zelenskiy towards the end of the last month. Trump announced on March 21 that a rare earths deal would be signed in the near future. The White House may be interested in Ukraine's infrastructure for gas beyond that deal. Ukraine has the third largest underground storage capacity in the world. The country could import liquefied gas from the United States and store it before shipping it to Europe.
(source: Reuters)