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Azeri BTC's daily oil exports for November are expected to increase by 3% m/m.
The differential between Brent and Urals crudes dated on Wednesday remained unchanged, but the Azeri BTC plan for exports from Turkey's Ceyhan Port in November was set at 15,3 million barrels compared to the 15.4 million barrels exported in October. Calculations showed that Azeri BTC crude exports would increase by approximately 3% per day in November compared to October. Alexander Novak, Deputy Premier of Russia, said that the country has gradually increased its oil production. It was very close to achieving the output quota set by OPEC+ last month. PLATTS WINDOW There were no bids or offerings reported on the Platts Window for Urals, Azeri BTC Blend or CPC blend crudes on Wednesday. According to sources, the U.S. delayed sanctions against Serbia's Russian owned NIS oil company that runs Serbia's sole oil refinery for a week, until October 15. The Nova Ekonomija portal in Belgrade reported this on Wednesday. (Reporting and editing by Kirsten Doovan)
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Brazil will not be introducing free public transportation soon, the chief of staff to the president says
Rui Costa said that the Brazilian president's chief of staff has no plans for the government to eliminate the public transport fares in Brazil this year or the next. This comes a day after Brazil's finance minister confirmed the results of studies assessing ways to fund the sector. Costa told a local radio station that there was no plan for this or next year. "I would like to be clear that the president has only asked for studies." A government source said that there were doubts about the logistical and the political feasibility of this proposal. Source: President Luiz inacio Lula da So has asked his economic team for an evaluation of the possible implementation of the measure. However, he is not in a hurry and doesn't intend to make it a part campaign promise. Costa said that the studies would be presented to President Obama so he could assess if the project was feasible and from where the money would come. If it is viable, the announcement will come at the right time. In an interview this week with Record TV, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad stated that the proposal will be included in Lula’s policy platform in Brazil next year when it holds its general elections. Haddad stated that "(Lula), knows this issue is very important for workers, environmental protection, and urban mobility." Investors' fears that the initiative might have negative fiscal consequences have caused the finance minister's comments to influence Brazilian markets. Reporting by Lisandra Parguassu, Writing by Fernando Cardoso, Editing by Rod Nickel
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ADNOC to pay out $43 billion as dividends to its subsidiaries by 2030
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company announced on Wednesday that six of its publicly listed subsidiaries would distribute 158 billion Dirhams ($43.02billion) in dividends between 2030 and 2035. ADNOC stated that the target amount is almost double the 86 billion dollars in dividends that the six subsidiaries collectively paid since ADNOC Distribution was listed in 2017 via an initial public offer. ADNOC has raised billions by selling stakes to its subsidiaries. It aims to be the top three petrochemical company in the world and top five gas company. Last year, it established the international investment arm XRG to help achieve these goals. ADNOC Gas and ADNOC Logistics & Services will also join ADNOC Drilling to pay quarterly dividends, providing more frequent returns for investors. ADNOC announced the news at an investor presentation of its listed subsidiaries. This was the first event that the group held. ADNOC Gas also announced that it had signed a 20 year gas supply contract with Ruwais LNG, valued at 147 billion Dirhams ($40 billion), to provide feedstock to the new LNG plant. The plant is expected to start production in 2028. It will more than double ADNOC’s LNG capacity. ADNOC said the merger between ADNOC and OMV, petrochemical companies Borouge and Borealis to create Borouge Group International is expected to be completed in the first quarter 2026. ADNOC and OMV have secured financing from global banks to finance the deal worth 56.6 billion Dirhams. This includes the acquisition of Nova Chemicals. ADNOC reported that BGI's deal with the companies will generate annual benefits worth 1.8 billion dirhams. The new entity will be the fourth largest polyolefins company in the world.
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Airbus delivered 507 jets during the first nine months
Airbus announced on Wednesday that it has delivered 507 aircraft in the first nine-month period. The fourth quarter will see 313 additional planes being delivered to meet the full-year goal of 820. In a sign that engine supply has improved, the world's biggest planemaker confirmed that it delivered 73 jets to customers in September. This was a record number for this month. Airbus' spokesperson confirmed that the number of gliders - or fully assembled aircraft waiting to be powered - had decreased from the peak of 60 reported earlier this year. However, the spokesperson did not provide a new estimate. The drop in gliders and the jump in September deliveries, from 50 last year to just 25 this month, suggest that the arrival of engines has accelerated in recent weeks after being affected by the recent strike at CFM supplier as well as the competing demand for spare engine from airlines. (Reporting and editing by Kirsten Doovan; Tim Hepher)
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Ryanair, a major Boeing customer, will see 737 production reach 48 units per month in April.
Ryanair, a major Boeing customer, said that it is confident that the U.S. aircraft manufacturer will be granted permission to increase the monthly production rate for its flagship 737 to 42 by October and to 48 by March orApril next year. Boeing, Boeing's biggest European customer, has repeatedly had to cut its growth forecasts because of delays. Boeing is currently working to stabilize production following a mid-air blowout panel on a new 737 MAX that occurred in January 2024. This exposed widespread quality and safety issues. Michael O'Leary is the Chief Executive Officer of Ryanair Group. His team regularly meets with Boeing management. He said he felt "fairly confident," that the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration will approve an increase in production monthly from 38 to 42 aircraft in October. RYANAIR - 'Pretty Confident' about progress at Boeing Will the FAA allow them to move to rating 48 next March or April? That would be a big jump. He said in an interview that he was "pretty confident" this would happen. After the panel explosion, the FAA capped 737 MAX output at 38 per months in early 2024. On September 26, it said that Boeing has not requested a rate hike, but if they did, FAA safety inspectors on site would do extensive reviews. Boeing stated earlier in the month that there were no supply chain issues that would prevent it from increasing monthly 737MAX production to 42 by the end of the year. Boeing's other major concern is when the MAX 7 and MAX 10 will be approved by regulators. Ryanair has placed 150 MAX 10 firm orders. Will they be able to get the MAX 7 or MAX 10 certified by 2026? Boeing tells us that they are now confident in the certification process. O'Leary, while praising recent achievements at Boeing and expressing his gratitude for them, said that there are no guarantees. He said, "We're confident but there is still a chance that it will be disrupted." Corina Pons is the reporter. Conor Humphries wrote the article. David Latona, Mark Potter and Mark Potter (Editing)
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As the shutdown continues, airlines prepare for a third day of flight delays
The major U.S. carriers are bracing themselves for a third consecutive day of delays as the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration continues to face staffing problems for air traffic control as the stalemate regarding funding for the government continues. Nearly 10,000 flights were delayed on Monday and Tuesday. Many of these delays were caused by the FAA slowing down flights due to air traffic controllers absences in facilities all over the country, as the shutdown entered its eighth day. The air traffic control shortages during the shutdown are more severe than during the last major government funding halt in 2019, which occurred during U.S. President Donald Trump's second term. Maryland Governor Wes Moore, along with congressional Democrats, called on Wednesday for an end to the airport shutdown at Baltimore-Washington International Airport. They noted that air traffic control officers and Transportation Security Administration agents are working without being paid. Moore, a Democrat from Maryland, stated that President Trump was unable to "close a deal" in order to keep the federal government open. Kwiesi mfume (Democrat) called for supplemental laws that would pay air traffic control during a shut down. He said that people are starting to be concerned about flying, and as a country we shouldn't get to this point. During a 35-day government shutdown in 2019, the number of controllers and TSA agents absent increased as they missed paychecks. This led to longer waits at checkpoints. The authorities were forced to reduce air traffic in New York. This put pressure on legislators to end the standoff quickly. They are not paid. During the shutdown of the federal government, 13,000 air traffic control officers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers still have to report for work. The controllers will receive a partial pay on October 14, for work done before the shutdown. Moore stated, "Our BWI employees are still here." Moore said, "They do it because they are patriots." They do it because they understand the importance of their work. Sean Duffy, Transportation Secretary, said that since the FAA shutdown began last week there has been a slight rise in sick leave. Staffing in certain areas of air traffic has also decreased by half. Air traffic control shortages have been a problem in the U.S. for over ten years. Many controllers were working six-day work weeks and mandatory overtime even before this shutdown. About 3,500 air traffic control positions are not enough to meet the FAA's target staffing levels.
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Container traffic at Rotterdam's port is disrupted by a strike by lashers for higher wages
On Wednesday afternoon, the largest seaport in Europe, Rotterdam, went on strike for 48 hours to demand higher salaries. Meanwhile in the neighbouring Belgian port's main port Flemish harbourpilots were protesting pension reforms. The FNV union said that all workers of International Lashing Services (ILS) and Matrans Marine Services (Matrans Marine Services), the two lashing firms active in the Dutch ports, stopped working at 3:15 pm (1310 GMT), and will continue their strike to the same time Friday. The FNV stated that during the two-day strike, no container ships can be unloaded or loaded at the port while lashers are securing the ship's cargo. Niek Stam, FNV's spokesman, said: "Without lashers, the entire port grinds to an halt." The Rotterdam Port Authority said that the strike would certainly affect traffic but it is too early to estimate its impact. International Lashing Services and Matrans Marine Service were not available for immediate comment. Port authorities in Belgium have reported that the maritime traffic at Antwerp-Bruges was severely disrupted for four days by Flemish harbourpilots who were protesting federal pension reforms. The port of Antwerp, which normally processes 60-80 ships per day, only processed 31 vessels on February 2, with some delayed or stranded, and others headed to other destinations.
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Ryanair CEO: airline is on track to recover from last year's 7 percent fare decrease
Michael O'Leary, the Chief Executive of Irish budget airline Ryanair, told reporters in Madrid that it believes it will recover its 7% decline in fares from 2024 during this financial year. "The traffic has exceeded the target...Fares are expected to rise by 7% over the course of the year," O'Leary stated, adding that this summer's prices were "pretty close" to those of the summer of 2023. The CEO stated that the full-year results will depend on the pricing of the company's third-quarter, which includes Christmas, and the fourth-quarter, for which the company currently has "very little visibility". He said that the economic weakness in Britain, France and Germany was causing price sensitivities. This led consumers to switch to Ryanair over flag carriers such as British Airways or Air France. O'Leary stated that "there is less demand to travel across the Atlantic to America at the moment - (U.S. president Donald) Trump alienated people. More people are choosing to holiday in the Mediterranean or Europe and this has been good for Ryanair's businesses." (Reporting and writing by Corina Poons; editing by Kirsten Doovan)
Take 5: Rate cuts and politics, state no more
It's a packed week ahead with U.S. inflation data, the start of Q3 earnings, a French budget and potentially a big rate cut from New Zealand.
Financiers are likewise on edge as Middle East tensions intensify, while Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba remains in the spotlight.
Here's all you need to learn about the week ahead in international markets from Lewis Krauskopf in New York City, Yoruk Bahceli in Amsterdam, Karin Strohecker and Amanda Cooper in London and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo.
1/ ONE YEAR OF WAR
One year on from Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel and the region looks on the verge of a vast war that could potentially improve the oil-rich Middle East.
The conflict, which has actually eliminated more than 42,000 individuals, the vast majority in Gaza, is spreading. Israeli troops are now in neighbouring Lebanon, home to Iran-backed Hezbollah; Iran launched a large scale rocket attack on Israel previously this week.
International markets have actually remained broadly unfazed. Oil rates, the main channel for tremblings further afield, have jumped about 8% this week, however soft need and adequate supply worldwide have kept a cover on gains. A more escalation between Iran and Israel could alter that, specifically if Israel strikes Iran's. oil centers, a choice that U.S. President Joe Biden said was. under conversation.
The scars of the conflict are visible on Israel's economy,. which has suffered a number of sovereign downgrades and seen its. default insurance coverage spike and bonds slide.
2/ HECTIC TIMES
U.S. third-quarter profits season is about to kick into. equipment, posturing a test for a stock market near record highs and. trading at elevated valuations.
JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and BlackRock. report on Friday. Other results earlier in the week. include PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines. S&P 500. companies in general are anticipated to have increased Q3 incomes by. 5.3% from a year previously, according to LSEG IBES.
Thursday's September U.S. customer price index, on the other hand,. will be carefully looked for indications that inflation is moderating.
Investors are currently expecting large rate cuts, after. the Federal Reserve started its easing cycle last month.
In other places, investors will look for to evaluate the economic fallout. from a dockworker strike as U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. resumed on Thursday.
3/ A RECKONING
France's brand-new government provides its long-awaited budget to. parliament on Thursday. It's preparing a 60-billion-euro. belt-tightening drive, around 2% of GDP, next year.
It reckons spending cuts and tax hikes must bring the. deficit, seen increasing to 6.1% this year in the most recent upward. modification, to 5% by end-2025. The target date for reaching the. euro zone's 3% deficit limitation is also being pushed back to 2029. from 2027.
That's bad news simply ahead of ranking evaluates starting. with Fitch next Friday.
Markets are not satisfied. Having actually reduced somewhat, the extra. premium France pays for its 10-year debt over Germany's broadened. back to just under 80 bps, near its greatest since August.
Eventually, what may matter more is whether Prime Minister. Michel Barnier can pass the budget plan, provided a divided parliament. that has investors questioning how long his government will. last.
4/ FEELING SHEEPISH
A reluctant joiner to international reducing, the Reserve Bank of. New Zealand is catching up quick.
It fulfills on Oct. 9 and traders reckon the central bank could. follow the Fed's example and cut rates by half a point.
The RBNZ cut rates by 25 bps to 5.25% in August, a year. ahead of its own projections.
Market values in a drop listed below 3% by end-2025. This will. still be above where traders believe U.S. and euro location rates will. be.
Shorter-term investors are neutral towards the kiwi, however. hedge funds have lapped it up this year.
Positioning and possibly higher rates than others might. insulate New Zealand's currency. So might the return of. so-called bring trades and in this case, basically a bearish. bank on the yen in favour of bullish ones on high-yielders such. as the kiwi.
5/ SURVEY POSITIONING
When Shigeru Ishiba shocked markets by winning the contest. to end up being Japan's prime minister, financiers hurried to. re-position themselves for higher rate of interest.
A week on and the landscape looks different, as Ishiba. back-flipped not just on monetary policy, but on prior. market-unfriendly assistance for higher corporate and capital gains. taxes.
It's possibly not surprising for a hawk to conceal his talons. with a snap election looming on Oct. 27.
Nevertheless, Ishiba was unabashedly blunt, stating after a. meeting with the Bank of Japan - whose self-reliance Ishiba has. vowed to honour - that the economy is not ready for even more. rate hikes.
The yen, which had actually been rising, moved previous 147 to a six-week. trough by Thursday. Japanese stocks rebounded from their. steepest slide considering that early August.
Check back in a month from now for any additional policy. flip-flops.
(source: Reuters)