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Gold to lose a weekly loss as US delays decision on Middle East involvement
Gold prices remained steady on Friday, and are expected to fall by a significant amount this week after U.S. president Donald Trump deferred a decision about entering the Israel-Iran war. As of 10:17 am EDT (1417 GMT), spot gold was unchanged at $3,372.81 per ounce. This is its lowest price since June 12. The index fell for the second consecutive week, falling 1.8%. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.6% to $3388.90. Gold is stable as Trump reverses his stance on an "imminent" attack on Iran. Tai Wong, a metals trader, said that for the moment it appears all the bad information is out. The White House said that Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether or not to get involved in the Israel-Iran air war. This puts pressure on Tehran to negotiate. The White House announced on Thursday that Trump would decide within the next two week whether or not the United States will be involved in the Israel/Iran air conflict. This will increase pressure on Tehran to begin negotiations. Iran launched another barrage of rockets against Israel in the early hours of Friday morning, hitting near residential apartments, offices, and industrial buildings in Beersheba, a southern city. Gold has traditionally been considered a hedge in times of political or economic uncertainty. The U.S. Central Bank held interest rates at the same level on Wednesday. While policymakers still anticipate cutting rates by half a percentage point this year, they slightly slowed the pace from there to a single quarter-percentage-point cut in each of 2026 and 2027. Gold is not a yielding asset, so a high interest rate environment is not favourable. Carsten Menke is an analyst with Julius Baer. He said that gold prices should continue to be supported by central banks and safe-haven investors. Spot silver dropped 1.1%, to $35.98 an ounce. It was down by 0.8% during the week. Palladium fell 0.7% to $1 043,28, but gained 1.7% for the week. Platinum fell 2.5% to $1268.58, increasing for the third consecutive week. (Reporting and editing by Rod Nickel, AnushreeMukherjee, Sarah Qureshi in Bengalur; Additional reporting by AshithaSivaprasad)
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Dutch Operation Orange Shield Launched to Keep NATO Summit Safe
The Netherlands launched Operation Orange Shield in order to protect the NATO summit next week. They deployed combat helicopters, patrols at sea, more than 10,000 military and law enforcement personnel, bomb squads, and air defence systems. The closed-door event will be held at The Hague World Forum. It will include delegates and leaders of 32 countries including U.S. president Donald Trump, French president Emmanuel Macron and British prime minister Keirstarmer. Seven Dutch frigates will be deployed as part of the largest security operation in the country. Dennis Oorburg, commander of Tromp frigate, said, "The goal is to observe all that's going on in the area, both at sea and in the sky." Pieter-Jaap Aalbersberg, the Dutch counterterrorism chief, told Dutch broadcaster NOS about cybersecurity risks being closely monitored. On Monday, heads of state and ministers will arrive at Schiphol Airport and then be escorted via a secure highway to The Hague. The Dutch King Willem-Alexander is hosting a state dinner on Tuesday for NATO leaders. The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been invited but has not confirmed his attendance. Mark Rutte, NATO's chief, will officially open the summit on Wednesday. He hopes to achieve consensus among leaders about a target of 5% for defence spending, as demanded by Trump. The Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, however, has been against the higher target. Protests will be held around the summit. These include a planned blockade of the highway by Extinction Rebellion activists, demonstrations against the conflict in Gaza, and hate speech directed at LGBTI+. The police say that protests are allowed within the "limits of the law". Reporting by Bart Biesemans, Charlotte Van Campenhout and Alison Williams from Scheveningen.
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Kazakhstan's daily oil and condensate output is expected to increase by 6% this June, the ministry reports
The Energy Ministry and the National Statistics Bureau have both reported that the daily production of oil and gas condensate in Kazakhstan is expected to increase by 6% compared to May. The OPEC+ producers have criticized its output for exceeding the quota. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that Kazakhstan's average daily production of oil and gas condensate in June will rise to 285,000 tons or 2,140 million barrels a day. Uses a conversion factor 7.5 barrels to a ton. Output stood at 269,000 tons in May, statistics bureau data showed. The ministry reported that the average daily production of oil and gas condensate for the first 10 days in June was 285,000 tons. It added that it would remain the same if there were no unforeseeable events. The Ministry did not specify the oilfields that were increasing production. Tengiz, a giant oilfield in Kazakhstan, was responsible for a surge in production this year. According to sources familiar with industry data, the production at Tengiz reached 118.100 tons (940,000 bpd) in the first ten days of June compared to 102.160 tons in May. Tengizchevroil is the operator of this field and does not comment about its activities. Alibek Zhamauov, deputy energy minister of Kazakhstan, said in May that production at Tengiz was down due to maintenance. Kazakhstan wants to increase its oil and gas condensate output by almost 10% in 2025, from 87.56 millions tons in 2024. (Reporting and editing by Jason Neely).
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Asian spot LNG price at 4-month-high on supply concerns
This week, Asian spot LNG prices reached their highest level in the past four months due to concerns about disruptions of supply caused by the Israel-Iran war. Average LNG price for August deliveries into North-east Asia According to industry sources, the price of gas was $14.00 per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu), an increase of 11% over $12.60/mmBtu from last week. This is also the highest since February 21. Israel launched an attack on Iran last Friday after claiming that Tehran was close to developing nuclear weapons. Iran, which claims its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, responded with drone and missile strikes against Israel. Prices have increased sharply in the past few days. Toby Copson is the chairman of Davenport Energy Partners. He said that they are pricing in possible supply disruptions from the Middle East, and that war premiums will continue to rise as long as the conflict continues. He added that "while demand is not high in Asia, some may bid on cargoes for any possible tightening supply." Alex Froley is a senior LNG analyst with data intelligence firm ICIS. He says that Chinese demand in June was around 12% less than the same period last year. Froley stated that "Geopolitics is likely to continue to drive market volatility, but if the physical supply continues to be stable then it could ease off in time." So far, there has been no significant disruption in the physical LNG cargoes. QatarEnergy instructed tankers to stay outside the Strait of Hormuz only until the day before loading. Martin Senior, the head of LNG pricing for Argus, stated that certain buyers could bid higher than European buyers in order to attract Atlantic Basin cargoes because of disruption at Hormuz. Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabobank, believes that a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to happen in the future. The fundamental risk to markets is that the energy infrastructure of Qatar will be caught in the crossfire if there's an escalation. She added that damage to the LNG export infrastructure or gas production sites, as well shipping operations will have a bullish impact on long-term gas prices. Gas prices in Europe at the Dutch TTF Hub eased on Friday, after reaching a new 11-week high Thursday. However, they remain volatile. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe LNG Marker price benchmark (NWM) for cargoes to be delivered in August ex-ship on June 19. This represents a $0.385/mmBtu reduction from the July futures prices at the TTF Hub. This weekly increase of 15.5% is the largest in nearly four months. Spark Commodities set the June price at 13.587/mmBtu. Argus estimated the July price at $13.825/mmBtu. Qasim Afghanistan, an analyst at Spark Commodities, says that the U.S. Arbitrage to North-East Asia via the Cape of Good Hope now points more to Europe while the arbitrage through Panama still points to Asia. On Friday, the LNG market saw its biggest week-on-week rise since October 2023, at $49750/day. Meanwhile, Pacific rates were unchanged at $32,000/day. (Reporting and editing by Nina Chestney; Marwa Rashad)
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As inventories shrink, premiums for copper contracts on the nearby LME soar.
The premiums for copper contracts near London Metal Exchange have increased to their highest level since October 2022 due to low inventories, large cash contracts and warrants held by traders. The title document that confers ownership on metal is a warrant. Tom-next, also known as the premium or backwardation that is charged for purchasing copper tomorrow and then selling it the next day, is currently trading at above The price of a metric tonne is $48. This compares to a $2 discount at the beginning of the week. The premium for the cash Copper Contract over the Three-Month Forward It is now trading at $180 per ton, up from $3 a month earlier. LME data shows that one company holds a dominant position with more than 90% of 0#LMEWHC> copper warrants or cash contracts, and two other companies hold 50%-79%. The dominant position would have triggered LME lending guidelines, which requires those with large trading or warrant positions to lend metal at specified premiums to other market participants. The guidelines aim to maintain market liquidity, and to prevent a single entity from squeezing the market or cornering it. The 99,200 tons of copper in LME warehouses has dropped by more than 60% from the middle February to its lowest level since August 2023. . The cancellation of warrants and the metal that was earmarked to be delivered shows 45%, or 44,800 tonnes more copper. A large amount of copper from LME's warehouses was shipped to the United States. Prices soared in the United States after President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into possible tariffs for copper imports as a way to rebuild U.S. manufacturing. COMEX copper is around $4.781 cents per lb, or $10,540 per ton, compared to $9,690 for the LME's three-month futures. Copper is an important material in power generation and construction. (Reporting and editing by Shailesh Kuber; reporting by Pratima Deai)
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China's teapots are slowing the purchase of Iranian oil, resulting in steeper discounts on Iranian oil
As independent refiners reduce their purchases due to the rise in crude oil prices, sellers of Iranian oil are offering greater discounts to China this month. They want to reduce their inventories. Three traders reported that Iranian Light crude oil was being traded between $3.30 and $35 a barrel under ICE Brent, compared with a discount around $2.50 in June. The main Chinese buyers for Iranian crude are independent refineries known as teapots. Since the conflict between Israel and Iran began last week, crude oil prices have risen by $10 per barrel. According to traders, teapots in the province of Shandong, a major refining hub, have suffered their worst losses ever this year. Consultancy Sublime Information estimates the average loss at 353 Yuan ($49.15 per metric ton) this week. Sublime data revealed that Shandong refinery operation remained at 51% capacity on June 18 compared to 64% one year ago. Storage Increasing According to Vortexa, the stocks of Iranian crude oil in China, on tankers in Chinese ports and near them, as well as in floating storage near Malaysia, Singapore and Malaysia, total 70 million barrels. China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, has enough to last two months. Kpler's tanker tracking data indicates that this year, more than 30,000,000 barrels of oil were stored in floating storage. Kpler, as well as Vortexa, estimate the total Iranian oil in floating storage at 120 million barrels. This is the highest since at least the year 2023. Reports indicate that recent U.S. restrictions on three Chinese teapots have slowed down purchases from independent mid-sized retailers who were worried about being classified. One trader estimated that the Iranian oil delivered to China in the first half 2025 would be replaced by 100,000 barrels of non-sanctioned crude. This is a fraction of the 1,4-1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil per day.
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Amazon is under investigation by the UK Grocery Watchdog for alleged payment delays to suppliers
The British grocery regulator launched an investigation on Amazon on Friday, looking into whether the U.S. retailer had violated rules regarding timely payments to suppliers over a period of three years. The Groceries Code Adjudicator said that it suspected Amazon of breaking paragraph 5 of Groceries Supply Code of Practice which mandates prompt payments to suppliers. Mark White, an adjudicator at the Amazon Suppliers' Forum, said that "the alleged delays may expose Amazon suppliers and their partners to excessive risks and unexpected costs. This could affect their ability to innovate and invest." Amazon's spokesperson stated that it takes the Groceries Supply Code of Practice seriously and will fully cooperate with White and his investigations. The spokesperson stated, "While we're disappointed by this decision, it is a great opportunity for us to demonstrate our continued compliance with this section of the Code." White stated that he had launched an investigation that would cover the time between Amazon's designation of March 2022 to June 2025. The evidence was gathered from multiple sources who were not named. The GCA stated that it would investigate the impact and scale of any delays. It will focus on Amazon's payments systems, its handling of supplier disputes regarding deductions and whether or not it unfairly uses settlements for deductions in commercial negotiations. The GCA threatened Amazon last year with a formal inquiry if the company did not improve compliance with the GSCOP. The code aims at ensuring that Britain's 14 biggest grocery retailers, such as Tesco and Sainsbury's, treat their suppliers fairly. In its annual survey for 2024, the regulator found that less than half the respondents who directly supplied Amazon thought the U.S. giant complied "consistently", or "mostly". Amazon announced at the time that it had improved its services for grocery suppliers compared to last year, including clearer explanations of cost price increases, minimum periods before de-listing and a major upgrade in handling invoice disputes. The GCA has the power to impose fines of up 1% of the UK turnover of large retailers. (Reporting and additional reporting by James Davey, Writing by Sam Tabahriti, Editing by Joe Bavier & Louise Heavens).
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Belgium announces border controls in immigration clampdown
By Charlotte Van Campenhout BRUSSELS - The government announced that Belgium would introduce border checks to curb illegal immigration. This is another restriction on the free movement of people across Europe's Schengen area. Anneleen Van Bossuyt's spokesperson, who is the junior minister of migration, announced on Friday that the restrictions will begin this summer in the country bordering the Netherlands, France and Germany. "Time for entry checks. Belgium cannot be a magnet to those who are stopped elsewhere. Van Bossuyt, writing on X, said: "Our message is clear. Belgium will not tolerate illegal immigration and asylum shopping." This announcement comes after similar actions by the Netherlands, Germany and other countries in Europe, as part of a wider crackdown on migration on the continent. The checks will be conducted in a targeted way on major access routes such as motorway parking lots, bus traffic, certain trains, and intra-Schengen flight from countries that have high migration pressure such as Greece and Italy," said a late Thursday statement by the Belgian government. Bart De Wever is the Prime Minister of his right-leaning Government, and has been in office since February. He said that curbing immigration was a top priority. The Schengen Area is open to all 29 of its member states, allowing them to travel freely between each other. Article 23 of the Schengen Borders Code allows members to temporarily reinstate border controls in response security or migration pressures. The Belgian Immigration Office spokesperson said that it is difficult to estimate the illegal immigration numbers without systematic border checks. The Federal Agency for the Reception of Asylum Seekers has revealed that Belgium, which is one of the richest countries in the world, will receive 39,615 applications for asylum in 2024. This represents an increase of 11.6% over 2023. According to figures, the country was only able to accommodate 35,600 applicants by 2024. This left many new arrivals with no proper housing. Charlotte Van Campenhout reported and Andrew Heavens edited.
As US rate cuts expectations decline, gold is poised to have its worst week in over a month
The gold price fell on Friday, and was on track for its worst weekly performance for more than a week after the Federal Reserve moderated expectations for rate reductions and temporarily eased concerns over an imminent U.S. strike on Iran.
As of 0851 GMT spot gold was down 0.6% at $3,350.66 per ounce and 2.4% on the week. U.S. Gold Futures fell 1.2% to $3366.30.
The dollar has gained 0.5% this week, and is on track to make its largest weekly gain in more than a month. This makes gold more expensive for those who hold other currencies.
The White House announced on Thursday that President Donald Trump would decide within the next two week whether or not the U.S. is going to get involved in Israel-Iran's air war. Israel and Iran's war in the air entered its second week on Saturday.
Trump's deadline of two weeks "indicates a bit more hope that things can cool down before U.S. involvement with that military strike." "I think this is easing some of that anxiety in the markets, which has allowed gold prices to deflate just a bit," said Nitesh Sharma, commodities strategist at WisdomTree.
In a low-interest rate environment, gold, which is a safe haven during political and economic unrest, tends to flourish.
The Fed held its interest rates steady at the current range of 4.25% to 4.50% on Wednesday but reduced its outlook for future rate cuts due to an increasingly challenging economic outlook.
Trump reiterated on Thursday his call for the Federal Reserve's interest rate to be cut by 2.5 percentage points.
Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said that "gold, silver, platinum, all suffered setbacks after traders booked profits following Wednesday's FOMC Meeting."
Gold is expected to continue its current consolidation phase, with support at around $3,320, followed by $3.245."
Palladium increased 0.1%, to $1,051.53, while spot silver fell 1%, to $36.01 an ounce. After hitting its highest price in more than 10 years during the previous session, platinum fell by 1.4% to $1289.52. (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton in Bengaluru, Anushree Mokherjee)
(source: Reuters)