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Bousso: Trump's sweet spot for oil prices is a 'no-man's-land' for the rest of us.
In recent months, oil prices have fluctuated within a relatively small range between $60 and $70 per barrel. This reflects both warnings about rising oil supplies and concerns over trade wars or geopolitical conflict. This may be a'sweet spot' for U.S. president Donald Trump but it's a 'no-man's land" for oil producers. The low end of the range was reached in mid-October. This allowed Trump to carry out his threats to impose severe sanctions against Russia's two giant oil companies, Lukoil & Rosneft. These two firms account for 5% of world output. Trump calculated that the escalation in the economic war against Moscow would not cause severe disruptions and price spikes, as the oil market today is oversupplied. Despite the low prices, the United States remains the top oil producer in the world. In October, the U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its production forecasts by 100,000 barrels a day to 13.5 millions bpd. It also raised output forecasts for next year. CONFUSION REIGNS ON MARKET DIRECTION Does the U.S. President have a right to expect that prices will stay rangebound? Who you ask is important. The International Energy Agency predicts a massive oversupply next year of nearly 4 million bpd, or nearly 4% of the global demand. This could cause prices to plummet, forcing many producers into drastic production cuts. The world's leaders in energy do not appear to be too concerned. During a gathering of oil traders in Abu Dhabi, last week, some suggested that the feared oil oversupply might not be as great as the IEA estimates. This is due to disagreements over demand. While IEA analysts expect consumption to increase by 700,000 bpd in this year, OPEC analysts put growth at almost twice that rate, at 1.3million bpd. China's massive stockpiling, about which Beijing has not provided any data this year, has further complicated the picture of demand. The assessment of supply has also been distorted by the reduced visibility of a large part of the oil markets due to the increased use of tankers that violate sanctions to transport Russian oil, Iranian oil, and Venezuelan oil. The OPEC+ coalition is clearly hedging their bets. Last week, it called for a modest rise in production in December to 137,000 bpd. This would be followed by a break through the first quarter next year. MAJOR MUDDLE THROUGH Western oil majors have signaled that they do not expect to see dramatic changes in prices in the near term. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are among the major U.S. producers of shale gas. They plan to increase their output in coming years. Exxon, America's largest oil company, increased its production forecast for 2025 in the oil-rich Permian Basin by 100,000 barrels per day, to 1.6 millions boed. It maintained the 2027 output of 2 million boed. Chevron has also increased its Permian production in the third quarter, and plans to keep it at 1,000,000 boed. In recent years, these firms have made significant cost reductions to be able to pay dividends and generate profits even when crude prices are around $60 per barrel. Oil majors have even indicated that they can continue to repurchase shares at current prices. However, they may need debt markets in order to do this. SWEET SPOT OR "NO MAN'S LAND"? Does this mean everyone will be satisfied if the prices stay within the narrow band of today? Hardly. Many OPEC producers need oil prices to be much higher than the current range for their national finances. Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven is $92 per barrel, according the International Monetary Fund. The current oil price range also poses a problem for the market in general. The supply-demand equilibrium will be in limbo until prices break through the floor of this range. If OPEC's optimistic forecasts of demand do not materialize, a violent price correction could occur. This is because swing producers, especially U.S. Shale Drillers, won't be forced to drastically reduce production until prices drop below $60 per barrel over a long period of time. According to a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, existing wells in big shale areas can produce profit at U.S. crude oil prices of between $26 and $45 per barrel. According to the survey, companies are also planning on drilling new wells between $61-$70 per barrel. Big offshore projects can also generate profits for much lower prices, between $40 and $50 per barrel. The risk of oversupply will continue to increase if these producers maintain production. There are certainly signs that drilling activity is slowing down in the U.S. Shale. According to Baker Hughes, the number of rigs operating onshore has decreased by 10% this year. If the IEA oversupply scenario becomes reality, a larger correction will be required. Oil would need to fall to $50 per barrel for a prolonged period of time to force producers into a sharp reduction in drilling and to allow supply and demand rebalance. President Trump – and U.S. customers – might be okay with it, but U.S. manufacturers and many OPEC member states would not. Subscribe to my Power Up newsletter to receive my weekly column, plus additional energy insights and links trending stories in your mailbox every Monday and Thursday. Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
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Ten charts showing global trends in energy and emissions since the Paris Treaty: Maguire
The energy sector and its emissions have changed a great deal and a little in the decade following the historic COP21 Paris Agreement, which aimed to reduce global warming. The explosion of renewable energy and the surge in sales of electric vehicles have upset the global car and power markets, and led to a "electrify all" campaign across the globe. The global production and use of crude oil, natural gas and coal have also continued to rise to new records. This has led to an increase in energy consumption emissions that will be nearly 10% higher in 2024 than in 2015. Here are 10 charts that show the trends in global energy consumption and power pollution to help you get a better idea of the situation as the COP30 Climate Meetings begin in Brazil. FOSSIL FUELS STILL ROUND THE ROAST Even after the most rapid rollout of renewable energy in a decade, global energy supply remains overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels. The Energy Institute reports that fossil fuels still account for 87% of the world's energy supply, due to historically high usage of crude oil and coal, as well as natural gas. Good news for those who support clean energy: fossil fuels are down from 89% of the total in 2015 and will continue to fall. The bad news is that global fossil fuel consumption continues to rise despite the reduction of coal burning in many countries and the acceleration of the shift towards electric transport and industrial processes. EVER CLEANER ELECTRICITY Solar panels, wind turbines and battery systems have seen record growth, which is boosting the percentage of clean energy in electricity generation. Ember data shows that global clean electricity supply has increased by 22% between 2015 and 2024. Meanwhile, fossil fuel generation has decreased by 11%. In Europe and Latin America, the utility systems generate more than 60% of their electricity from renewable sources. The global average hovers around 40%. RENEWABLES RISE Renewable energy has been the main story in the world's energy systems for the past decade. In the period between 2015 and 2024, there has been a surge of 68% in electricity consumption from renewable sources. This includes electricity networks as well as industrial power systems. Solar power production has risen by nearly 700% since 2015. Wind power has risen by 200%. In the last decade, Asia has been the leader in the deployment of solar and wind technology. By 2024, Asia will account for 45% all renewable energy production. Europe has the second largest renewables deployment, with roughly 20% of the market, followed by North America with 18%. Asia is the largest solar market in the world, with a share of around 60%. Europe and North America follow closely behind. Asia is also the leader in wind energy deployment. Emissions Impact Since 2015, energy emissions have decreased in North America and Europe due to the rapid increase in renewables worldwide, along with the reduction of coal-fired electricity production in many countries. The Energy Institute reports that energy emissions in Asia accounted for 52 percent of total energy emissions last fiscal year. Since 2015, the United States, Japan, and Germany have all reduced their energy emissions more than any other country. However, the U.S. and other major economies, including Japan, Germany, and Germany, have taken steps in order to reduce pollution, but their collective reductions have been more or less offset by rising pollution elsewhere. Data from the Energy Institute shows that China has increased its energy pollution more than 20 of the largest economies have reduced their emissions collectively since 2015. When you consider the rising pollution levels in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, the global trend of energy pollution is still on the rise. BATTERY BOOM Battery energy storage systems are growing rapidly. This could slow down the future growth of energy emissions, particularly in countries with a large footprint of solar production. Asia is the leader in the deployment of utility scale battery systems. This is largely due to China's position as the world's top battery manufacturer. The United States and Australia have also a large BESS capacity. This should allow utilities to make better use of their solar assets, by charging the batteries during periods when solar production is at its peak and then dispatching them as demand increases. BESS deployment is the next step in the energy transition and will help major power systems meet more of their commitments from the Paris COP gathering 10 years ago. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for. You like this article? Check it out Open Interest The new global financial commentary source (ROI) is your go-to for all the latest news and analysis. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on You can find us on LinkedIn.
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Two trains collide in Slovakia, injuring many passengers
Police and Slovakia's Interior Minister said that two trains collided in Slovakia Sunday night after one train ran into the rear of the other. Dozens of passengers were injured, they added. Matus Sutaj Estok, the Interior Minister who spoke at the accident site, said in a televised press briefing that 11 people were hospitalized and dozens of others were only lightly injured. He said that there were no fatalities in the accident. The accident occurred on the corridor connecting Bratislava, the capital city, with Pezinok (about 20 km) to the northeast. According to preliminary information there was neither a head-on collision nor a derailment of trains," the police posted on Facebook. The news website Aktuality.sk quoted a passenger who described the crash as a "bang". This is the second accident in Slovakia within the last month. Two trains collided Eastern Slovakia on October 13, injuring 91 people.
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Transportation secretary: US air travel is expected to drop to a trickle as a result of the shutdown
Due to a shortage of air traffic controllers, U.S. flights are expected to be "a trickle" as the shutdown continues. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy made the announcement in comments that were broadcast on Sunday. After a Saturday plagued by thousands of cancellations and delays, major airlines faced a third consecutive day of flight restrictions. The government shutdown has now lasted a record-breaking 40 days. This has caused a shortage of air traffic control officers who, along with other federal employees, are not paid for several weeks. Duffy, on CNN's State of the Union program, said: "It will only get worse... the next two weeks you'll see air travel reduced to a trickle." Travel is a common activity in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving Day, the biggest holiday in the United States, which falls this year on November 27. Duffy stated that "many of them will not be able get on an aircraft, as there won't be many flights if the thing doesn't reopen." DAILY FLIGHTS CUT In order to ensure air traffic safety, the Federal Aviation Administration has instructed airlines to reduce 4% of flights daily at 40 major airports starting Friday. The Federal Aviation Administration has mandated that flight reductions reach 6% by Tuesday, and then 10% by November 14th. The FAA said on Saturday that a shortage of air traffic control personnel was affecting 42 airport towers, other centers, and delaying flights at least in 12 major U.S. Cities, including Atlanta Newark San Francisco Chicago and New York. Duffy stated that a growing number of air traffic controllers have retired after the shutdown began on October 1. CNN reported that the FAA was 1,000 to 2,000 air traffic controllers short. Duffy stated that he had paid experienced controllers not to retire and stay on the job. "I used have four controllers leave a day prior to the shutdown. Now up to fifteen to twenty a day retire." On Saturday, 1,550 flights were cancelled and 6,700 flights were delayed. This is up from the 1,025 cancellations on Friday and the 7,000 flights that were delayed. Officials from airlines privately stated that the sheer number of delays programs makes it almost impossible to plan and schedule many flights. They also expressed concern about the future performance of the system if the staffing problems worsen. About 700 flights were cut by the four biggest carriers, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines, starting on Friday. On Sunday, the airlines will cancel about 700 flights. During the shutdown of the federal government, 13,000 air-traffic controllers and 50,000 screeners were forced to work for free. Duffy said earlier that he would require a 20% reduction in air traffic, if more controllers stopped showing up to work. Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, of Texas, said that the FAA told him that more than 500 reports of safety incidents involving air traffic controllers due to fatigue have been filed by pilots since the shutdown began. (Reporting from David Shepardson, Washington; additional reporting from David Ljunggren, Ottawa; editing by Christopher Cushing and Sergio Non)
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US airlines prepare for third day of flight restrictions
After a weekend of flight delays caused by a shortage of air traffic controllers, major airlines are preparing for the third day of mandatory government-mandated flight reductions. Federal Aviation Administration has instructed airlines to reduce 4% of flights daily starting Friday in 40 major airports due to safety concerns regarding air traffic control. The record-breaking shutdown has left air traffic controllers, and other federal employees who haven't been paid in weeks, short. The reduction in flight numbers is to be 6% by Tuesday, and 10% by November 14th. The FAA announced on Saturday that there are air traffic control staffing shortfalls in 42 airport towers, other centers, and at least 12 major U.S. Cities including Atlanta, Newark San Francisco, Chicago, and New York. On Saturday, 1,550 flights were cancelled and 6,700 were delayed compared to Friday's 1,025 cancellations and 7,500 delays. Officials from airlines privately stated that the sheer number of delays programs makes it almost impossible to plan and schedule many flights. They also expressed concern about the future performance of the system if the staffing problems worsen. About 700 flights were cut by the four biggest carriers, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines, starting on Friday. About the same number flights are expected to be cancelled on Sunday. During the shutdown of the federal government, 13,000 air-traffic controllers and 50,000 screeners were forced to work for free. Sean Duffy, the U.S. Transportation secretary, said he might require a 20% reduction in air traffic if fewer controllers show up to work. Duffy said, "I evaluate the data." We're going make decisions based upon what we see on the airspace. Ted Cruz, a Republican senator, said that the FAA told him that more than 500 pilots had filed safety reports since the shutdown began about errors made by air traffic control because of fatigue. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; David Shepardson)
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UK provides Belgium with defence equipment to combat drones
The British military chief announced on Sunday that Britain will send experts and equipment to Belgium in order to combat drone sightings which have caused airports to temporarily close. In the past week, drones were spotted flying over Belgian airports and military base. Drones had caused significant disruptions across Europe during recent months. Richard Knighton (head of Britain's Armed Forces) told BBC that the Belgian counterpart asked for help and that equipment was on its way. He said that he and the defence secretary had agreed, at the end last week, to send our personnel and equipment to Belgium in order to assist them. However, he did not specify what equipment or how many people would be sent. Knighton said that it is not yet known who is behind the drone sightings. However, he noted that Russia has engaged in "hybrid war" over the past few years. Russia denies any involvement in the incident. Drones seen flying over airports in Belgium's capital and Liege, the east of the country, forced many planes to be diverted and some of those due to depart Tuesday were grounded. On Thursday, drone sightings forced airports to temporarily close in Sweden and other countries. On Friday, the German Defence Minister suggested that recent drone incidents in Belgium were linked to discussions about using frozen Russian assets held by Belgian financial institutions Euroclear to fund an enormous loan to Ukraine. (Reporting and editing by David Holmes; Andrew MacAskill)
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Philippines evacuates 100,000 as Fung-wong intensifies to super typhoon
Over 100,000 people were evacuated from the Philippines' eastern and northern regions on Sunday as Fung-wong intensified into a super typhoon, ahead of its arrival expected later that day. It is threatening to unleash torrential rainfall, destructive winds and storm surges. The Philippines has been flooded with storm alert signals. Signal No. The highest alert, Signal No. 5, was raised in southeastern Luzon including Catanduanes, coastal areas of Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur. Metro Manila and its surrounding areas were under Signal No. 3. Super Typhoon Uwan (185 kph) is expected to land in Aurora Province in central Luzon on Sunday evening at the latest. Already, parts of Eastern Visayas are experiencing power outages. Images shared by the Philippine Coast Guard showed evacuees transferring from narrow, long passenger boats to trucks waiting for them during preemptive rescue operations. 300 Flights Canceled According to the Civil Aviation Regulator, more than 300 domestic flights and international flights were cancelled. The video, shared by ABS-CBN News X, showed a stormy Catanduanes Province, with an overcast skies, violent tree branches swaying in the wind and heavy rain falling visibly and pounding on the area. Its intensity was audible. Fung-wong arrived in the Philippines only days after Typhoon Kalmaegi devastated the country, killing 204 and leaving a trail destruction. It then slammed into Vietnam where it killed five more people and destroyed coastal communities. On Saturday, in the central Vietnamese fishing village of Vung Cheo, hundreds of lobster farms were washed or damaged. Fishing vessels were piled in wrecks on the main road. Reporting by Karen Lema, Additional reporting by Minh Nguyen, Thinh Nguyen (both in Vietnam) Editing by Rod Nickel
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FAA bans MD-11 flights after UPS jet crash
After a deadly crash of a UPS MD-11 freighter in Louisville, Kentucky, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration issued an order on Saturday prohibiting MD-11 aircraft from flying until further inspection. At least 14 people were killed. UPS and FedEx have grounded their combined fleets of more than fifty McDonnell Douglas MD-11 freighters following a Boeing recommendation. The FAA stated that its emergency airworthiness instruction was prompted after the Tuesday crash in which the left motor and pylon separated from the aircraft during takeoff. The cause of detachment will be investigated. The U.S. regulator stated that "this condition could result in a loss of safe flight and landing". UPS stated that it was complying with the directive as it had grounded 26 MD-11 aircraft, which represents about 9% its fleet. Boeing announced on Saturday its support for the FAA's order. FAA Likely to Require Comprehensive Inspections Boeing acquired the MD-11 Program through its 1997 merger McDonnell Douglas. The FAA will likely require thorough engine and pylon checks before allowing planes to return to service. The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board leads the investigation into the crash at the airport of a 34-year old MD-11 freighter. The plane soared to about 100 feet (30 meters) before bursting into flames and destroying nearby businesses. As the plane rolled down the Louisville Airport runway, one of its three engines separated from the left wing. Safety investigators in the United States said on Friday that three UPS pilots tried to take control of the aircraft just before the crash. Reporting by David Shepardson, Washington DC; Allison Lampert, Montreal; Editing Sergio Non and Rod Nickel
Official data shows that fewer Germans are moving to the US since Trump took office.
Official data released on Monday showed that the number of Germans moving to the United States will drop sharply after the second term of Donald Trump.
According to preliminary data from the German federal statistics office, between January and September, emigration into the U.S. dropped by 17.8% on an annual basis, to 17,100.
The office released a statement saying that departures to the U.S. were at the lowest level since 2021, the year when the pandemic hit.
In the same time period, migration from the U.S. into Germany increased by 3.4%. This is the first time that the U.S. has seen more people move to Germany.
The tourism between the two countries has also decreased. In the period January-August, 1,96 million U.S. tourists visited Germany, a decline of 3.2% compared to 2024.
Arrivals in July fell by 10.2%, the most dramatic drop.
The U.S. remains the most popular non-European airport destination despite a decline of 1.3% in air travel to the U.S.
Spain, Turkey, and Italy were the top three foreign travel destinations for Germans during this period.
After several Germans were arrested at the border, Germany updated their travel advice for the U.S. in March. (Reporting and writing by Rene Wagner; editing by Thomas Seythal).
(source: Reuters)