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FOREX Dollar gains as Middle East conflict boosts oil and Fed hike looms

As investors prepared for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the U.S. Dollar rose on Monday.

The dollar is supported by the warnings of leaders of the largest AI companies regarding the dangers of AI.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks currency against six major counterparts, rose last by almost 0.6%, after previously touching 99.648, it's highest since September 2.

The euro dropped to its lowest level in a month at $1.153, and last fell by 0.5%. Meanwhile, the British pound dropped 0.5% to reach $1.3474.

Brent crude rose 3% to $108 per barrel, causing investors to panic and send global bond yields towards multi-year highs.

Concerns about energy supply were heightened by the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter. The kingdom had shut down its main oil pipeline for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

The diplomatic effort to end the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has appeared to be stumbling. A meeting between Tehran, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf countries was postponed. Supply concerns were exacerbated by attacks?on vessels in the region.

Francesco Pesole is a currency strategist with ING. He said, "Gulf developments are still concerning and AI-related headlines further weigh on equities. In this environment, the dollar should be supported."

Banks in Central are under pressure

This week, the key question on the minds of investors is whether or not the U.S. Fed plans to raise interest rates this Wednesday as a result of?the surge in energy prices which has driven?diesel up to record levels and helped to lift underlying inflation more than expected for August.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, money markets pointed Monday to an approximately 90% chance of a hike in interest rates, up from 60% a week earlier.

The U.S. Dollar has strengthened modestly this week as expectations have grown that the Fed is going to tighten monetary policy, said Lee Hardman senior currency analyst at MUFG.

The recent strength of the dollar is not without risk.

In a recent note, Scotiabank analysts headed by Shaun Osborne stated that an unchanged Fed decision would be a shock to the markets and a "clear negative" for the USD.

They wrote that "but a dovish hike" which did not commit to any additional actions would also weigh on the USD."

The Japanese yen weakened on Monday as it gave up some of the recent gains, which were driven by increasing bets about Bank of Japan rate increases.

The U.S. dollar rose 0.9% to 154.88 Japanese yen from last week's near seven-month low of below 153.

Bond yields have reached multi-year highs or even multi-decade levels in the U.S. and Europe. The impact of the FX market is relatively small, since yields are moving in lockstep.

The markets are almost certain that the Bank of Japan is going to raise interest rates this Friday. They will be watching for any clues as to whether there will be more increases.

There are signs of a change in the market's sentiment towards the yen. Speculators have taken a net-long?position for the Japanese currency, the first since February.

On Thursday, the?Bank of England will likely keep borrowing costs at current levels. However, traders expect an increase in rates later this year as well as more in 2027 following last week's rate hike by the European Central Bank.

Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency, edged higher for a second session in a row, rising 0.6% to $78,805.

(source: Reuters)