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FOREX Dollar rallies amid rising oil prices and AI concerns

The U.S. Dollar rose to its highest level in two weeks on Monday, as the conflict in the Middle East drove up oil prices and pushed investors into the "safe-haven" currency. This weighed on the yen's recent gains.

The dollar was boosted by the warnings from CEOs of frontier companies about AI's potential dangers. Meanwhile, rising bets placed on the Federal Reserve raising rates on Wednesday also helped the U.S. Dollar.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks currency against six major counterparts, rose last by almost 0.4%, after previously touching 99.6, the highest level since September 2.

The euro dropped to its lowest level in a month at $1.153, and last fell by 0.4%. Meanwhile, the British pound slid 0.3% to reach $1.35.

Brent crude rose 3% to $108 per barrel, unnerving investors. Global bond yields also returned to multi-year highs.

The Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, came after the Kingdom shut down its main pipe for bypassing Strait of Hormuz. This added to the concerns about energy supply.

Diplomacy in the U.S.-Iran conflict appeared to be stumbling, as a meeting was postponed between Tehran and Gulf governments. Supply concerns were exacerbated by attacks on ships in the area.

Francesco Pesole is a currency strategist with ING. He said, "Gulf developments are still concerning and AI-related headlines?are further weighing down on equities. In this environment, the dollar should be supported."

The Japanese yen was a notable loser, giving up a portion of its recent gains. This has been driven by increasing bets that the Bank of Japan will raise rates.

The U.S. Dollar rose 0.7% to 154.55 Japanese Yen from last week's nearly seven-month low of below 153.

CENTRAL BANKS UNDER PRESSURE

This week, the key question on the markets is whether or not the U.S. Fed raises interest rates this Wednesday as a response to the surge in energy prices which has driven diesel to new record highs.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, money markets on Monday indicated a 90% chance of an interest rate hike. This is up from 60% a week earlier.

The U.S. Dollar has strengthened modestly this week as a result of expectations that the Fed would begin to tighten monetary policy, said Lee Hardman senior currency analyst at MUFG.

Hardman also said that the Fed may be reluctant to raise rates too aggressively during an election year. This could limit the dollar's gains.

Bond yields have reached multi-decade or multi-year highs in Japan, Europe, and the U.S. due to the increasing bets placed on rate hikes. The FX market is not yet feeling the full impact of the rate hikes, since yields are moving largely in tandem.

The markets are almost certain that the Bank of Japan is going to raise interest rates this Friday. They will be searching for any clues as to whether there will be more.

There are signs of a'shift in the market sentiment towards the yen. Speculators have taken a net-long position on the Japanese currency for the first since February.

Bank of England will likely keep borrowing costs unchanged on Thursday. However, traders expect an increase in rates later this year as well as more in 2027 following the European Central Bank's hike last week.

(source: Reuters)