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Andy Home: Risks to Western aluminum supply increase as Iran war escalates
The Strait of Hormuz is the Gulf's main shipping chokepoint, and it is no longer just about oil?and?gas. According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), the region is a major producer of aluminum, with over 8% global production last year. Smelters from Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates ship over 5 million metric tonnes of metal through the Hormuz Strait every year. Bauxite, alumina and other materials are transported the opposite way in order to feed the smelters. These plants have not yet been targeted directly in the increasing hostilities. Qatar Aluminium, owned jointly by Norsk Hydro of Norway and QatarEnergy in Qatar, is already facing closure due to the disruptions caused by the suspension of the country's natural gas production. The greater the danger to Western manufacturers, the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Key Western Supplier Middle East has become a major hub for aluminium production in the past two decades. The region's vast gas reserves are used to power the energy intensive smelting processes. The Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) production has increased from 2.7 millions tons in 2010 up to 6.2 millions last year. It is now the second-largest regional supplier, outside of China. Make that the biggest. In the IAI's figures for Europe (the largest non-Chinese production hub in Europe on paper), there are 4 million tons of Russian metal produced annually. Due to Ukraine sanctions, Russian aluminum cannot be imported into the U.S. The European Union has also phased out imports for the same reasons. GCC metal producers are a key component of Western supplies of a material used in a variety of industries, from packaging to automotive and construction. MULTIPLE CHANNELS Multiple channels are involved in the potential impact of Western buyers. Gulf smelters export more than just primary aluminium. The smelters are also important producers of alloys, and they feed the local clusters of semi-manufactured products plants. According to World Bureau of Metal Statistics' official data, Bahrain exported 1 million tons of metal alloys, 500,000 tons of finished products, and 160,000 tonnes of virgin metal in the past year. Exports were made to more than 70 countries, with significant amounts going to Europe and America. A protracted stoppage of regional production or exports would affect multiple countries, and many parts of the processing chains. VULNERABLE MARTENS Aluminium is still as vulnerable to supply disruptions as it has been for years. China's smelter industry has reached its 45 million ton capacity limit, causing both exports and output growth to slow. The phase-outs of Russian imports and the closing of the Mozal Smelter in Mozambique have squeezed Western buyers. London Metal Exchange's (LME) stock, which includes metal stored off-warrant, dropped by 331,000 tonnes last year. It has also fallen another 84,000 tonnes since January 1. LME Aluminium prices were already rising before the Iran Crisis. The news on Tuesday that Qatar Aluminium may be facing a suspension in operations, has pushed three-month metal up to $3,315 a ton. This is within striking distance from January's near-four-year-high of $3,356. Power THREAT Western aluminium purchasers are likely to experience a supply shock. However, it is also possible that a second one will occur in the form higher energy prices. The closure of other smelters because of high electricity prices is one reason that GCC has become such an important part of the Western market. Mozal, a Mozambican plant that is a major European supplier, is an example. The surge in power prices that followed the invasion of Ukraine by Russia four years ago has led to the loss of several plants across Europe. Western aluminum producers do not need another energy shock. The last thing Western buyers want is to lose their supply due to producers on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz. Andy Home is a journalist. This column is a favorite of yours? Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance is available at Open Interest. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Australian shares fall over 2% after hot GDP data reignites rate-hike speculation
Australian shares continued to fall on Wednesday. This was largely due to a sell-off in most sectors. The surprising?brisk growth of the economy rekindled bets for interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the escalating Middle East conflict increased inflation concerns. If current losses continue, the S&P/ASX 200 will have its worst session since February 6, if it falls below 8,881.90. This week the benchmark index has dropped more than 3%, putting it on track for its largest weekly decline since April of last year. Data released earlier today showed that Australia's economy expanded at the fastest pace in almost three years in the December quarter. This sparked inflation fears and reinforced the belief that rates would need to be raised to "cool down" the momentum. The markets currently expect a rate increase of one quarter point at the 17th meeting. This is compared to 28% on the previous day. The escalating Middle East conflict has also dimmed the outlook for equity markets, which could lead to a global inflation wave. Even though Australia is an energy exporter net, the sustained rise in oil prices acts as a tax to consumers and businesses. Tony Sycamore is an analyst with IG. He said, "The Reserve Bank of Australia board will remain laser-focused on the Middle East conflict and its risks in terms of a supply scare feeding into higher inflation." Financials in Sydney fell 1.8%, marking the?fifth consecutive session of declines. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Australia's largest lender, fell 1.5%. The remaining "big four" Australian banks declined between 1.3% to 2.7%. Investors weighed the rising freight costs due to the escalating conflict in Iran as they weighed down on iron ore price fluctuations. BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue all dropped between 0.8% to 3.3%. Virgin Australia's stock dropped as much as 3.7%, to a "one-month low". Larger rival Qantas fell 1.6%. The benchmark S&P/NZX 50 fell 0.9% in New Zealand to 13,491.97, and was on course for its third consecutive session of losses. (Reporting from Nichiket Tanishk and Kumar Tanishk, Bengaluru. Editing by Rashmi aich and Subhranshu sahu.)
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Oxa, a UK-based startup that develops self-driving vehicles, raises $103mln in order to expand at airports and ports
Oxa, the British self-driving company, has raised $103 million in funding from investors. The money will be used to scale up autonomous vehicle operations focusing on ports, airports, warehouses, and other industrial applications. Oxa is based in central England and said that 50 million dollars of its Series D round funding came from the UK National Wealth Fund. It also included investments by Nvidia venture capital NVentures, BP Ventures, and Nvidia. Oxa, unlike robotaxi developers who are focused on passenger cars, is focused on "industrial'mobile autonomy", which is what founder Paul Newman refers to. There is less complexity in this area because there is less pedestrian traffic and less?encounters. Newman stated that it is extremely difficult to achieve this in the passenger car market. In the industrial sector, it is very clear what needs to be done to create a product. Oxa creates the software and hardware that goes on vehicles. It can "autonomise", in less than a day, a heavy-duty truck for port work. The company has now raised over $250 million in funding, which will allow it to expand its operations and work with DHL and BP. Newman said that the funding would be used to deploy Oxa's technology in projects the company plans to announce soon. Last month, the British self-driving company Wayve announced a $1.2billion Series D funding round. The company is collaborating with Uber on robotaxis, and several automakers are working on driver-assistance technologies. (Reporting by Nick Carey, editing by Barbara Lewis).
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Australian shares continue to decline on Middle East conflict. GDP data is in focus
Australian shares fell below the key 9,000-level on Wednesday, mainly due to concerns over inflationary effects of the Middle East conflict. S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.5% at 2322 GMT, extending its losses for a second session. The benchmark index closed Tuesday down 1.3%. Investors' concerns over inflation were heightened by the rising oil prices caused by the Middle East conflict. Gold stocks were the primary percentage laggards. They fell 6.6%, as bullion price retreated amid stronger?dollars and lower rate-cutting prospects. Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining both fell by 6.7% and 6.3%. BHP, Rio Tinto, and other mining giants fell 4% and 2,9% respectively. Fortescue fell 3% as well. Virgin Australia, a major airline in Australia, dropped as much as 4 percent to an all-time low. Larger rival Qantas fell 1%. Investors are awaiting Australia's fourth quarter gross domestic product, after Tuesday's data showed that net exports had a lesser impact on growth and public spending was higher than expected. Governor Michele Bullock stated on Tuesday that the central bank may raise rates in March, if inflation expectations are at risk of becoming unanchored. Financials, the heavyweights of the market, fell?0.8% for their fifth straight session. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Australia's largest lender, fell as much as 1.3%. The remaining "big four banks" also dropped between 0.8% to 1.3%. After three consecutive sessions of gains, energy stocks fell by 1.2%. Consumer staples dropped 1.2% while real estate stocks fell 0.8%. The benchmark S&P/NZX 50 fell 0.4% in?New Zealand to 13,563.85, a session that will be the third consecutive one of declines. (Reporting from Nichiket in Bengaluru, editing by Rashmi aich)
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MSC will offload all cargo bound to Gulf at the nearest safe seaport
MSC, world's largest ocean container carrier, announced on Tuesday that all cargo bound for Gulf ports will be unloaded at the nearest safe seaport, due to the ongoing hostilities between the United States and Israel. Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran. MSC, based in Geneva, said that the "End of Voyage Declaration" also applies to containers which have been loaded with cargo but are empty and intended to be exported to ports in the Gulf. MSC announced that a mandatory surcharge $800 per container would be applied to all affected shipments?without exception' to cover deviation costs. The company stated that it "sincerely regrets" the need for this decision. Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime's container shipping consultancy, Vespucci Maritime CEO, stated on Linkedin that customers will be responsible for their container at the discharge -port. He said that shippers were responsible for paying port fees and finding alternative transportation. As a result of the hostilities, oil tankers and containers have backed up in the Strait of Hormuz, causing global fuel prices to soar. According to Drewry, an?London-based maritime consultancy, as of Sunday there were 158 container vessels?present throughout the Middle East including the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, which represents just 2.1% of current 'active' container ship fleet. MSC and Ocean 'Network Express (ONE) stopped accepting cargo bound to the affected areas of?the Middle East earlier this week. Experts in the industry warned that hostilities could cause a cascade of delays and disruptions, which could last for weeks as operators reroute vessels, containers, and other assets. In a report published on Tuesday, Simon Heaney said that container shipping had less to lose from the Iran conflict than other sectors. However, it could not escape disruptions and increased costs. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Lisa Baertlein)
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Sources say that a Russian-flagged LNG tanker is on fire in Mediterranean. The crew has been located in a lifeboat near Libya
The 'Russian flagged liquefied gas tanker Arctic Metagaz' is burning in the Mediterranean Sea, according to maritime security sources. Malta's Armed Forces said that the crew of the vessel had been found safe and sound in a lifeboat in Libya's search and rescue region. According to data from the MarineTraffic platform, the vessel under U.S. sanctions and UK sanctions sailed off the coast of Malta as recently as Monday. One of the sources claimed that Ukraine was suspected of committing the attack. However, no evidence was provided. Malta's military said that they received a distress call about the ship and located it. They did not elaborate on its condition. "Survivors were then?located in the Libyan SRR, in a lifeboat, during the search efforts." In a Facebook press release, they reported that all crew members were safe onboard the lifeboat. The Russian LNG producer Novatek, the vessel's manager in Russia LLC SMP Techmanagement and Russia's Transport Ministry did not immediately respond to comment requests. Separately, the Security Service of Ukraine did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Reporting by Jonathan Saul and Renee Maltezou; editing by Susan Fenton & David Gregorio
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Israel's UN representative says that Israel and the US control nearly all Iranian airspace.
Danny Danon, Israel's U.N. ambassador, said that Israel and the United States control almost all of Iran's airspace. Danon said to reporters at the United Nations in New York that the conflict between Iran and Israel would not end within a day, or even a week. "We knew this wasn't going to be a simple war. We know the capabilities of the Iranian regime. He said that they spent billions on "the infrastructure of terror" and knew it would be a serious operation. "But it won't last forever. We are superior. We have superiority. Danon responded that the U.S. Israeli and U.S. attacks against Iran since Saturday have succeeded in degrading Iran's capabilities. He said that it would be more difficult for Iran to launch missiles, but he did add that the country had hidden launchers in caves and underground. I think the operation will be gradual. Danon said the Lebanese Government should also act immediately against Hezbollah terrorists who are attacking Israel from Lebanese soil to prevent a further escalation. He said that Nawaf 'Salam, the Lebanese prime minister, was right to say that Hezbollah should disarm. He said that "but statements don't dismantle missiles." "We expect that the Lebanese government will'restrain Hezbollah and take control. Act now to prevent a further escalation. Hezbollah militants in Lebanon opened fire on Israel Monday with drones and rockets. Lebanon banned military activities of?Hezbollah on Monday, but militants fired missiles at Israel on Tuesday for the second consecutive day. Israel responded with troops in southern Lebanon, and waves of airstrikes. (Reporting and editing by Cynthia Osterman; David Brunnstrom)
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NTSB: Waymo robotaxis passed illegally stopped school buses, according to new incidents
The National Transportation Safety Board announced Tuesday that it is investigating a new incident from January in which Waymo's self-driving cars passed a stopped school bus with its lights activated, in violation of Texas state law. Alphabet recalled their self-driving cars in December after Texas officials claimed they had illegally overtaken school buses 19 times since the beginning of the school year. NTSB reported that a new incident happened in Austin, Texas on January 12 as a school bus loaded passengers. The incident is currently under investigation. The NTSB stated that 'the Waymo stopped to look at the bus. But then, other vehicles passed by the bus. This prompted Waymo ask a human remote assistance operator whether it was a "school bus with active signal?" The?agent replied no and then Waymo passed by the bus. The NTSB will issue safety recommendations in order to prevent similar incidents. Waymo has expressed its appreciation for the NTSB's work. Waymo reported in December that a software problem contributed to the self-driving cars initially slowing down or stopping at a school bus, and then continuing. In October, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened its first?probe into Waymo cars near school buses. Austin Independent School District reported that five incidents took place in November, after Waymo released an earlier software upgrade to fix the problem. Waymo declined to comply with the request made by the school system in order to stop operations near schools at pick-up or drop-off time until the company could verify that the vehicles did not violate the law. NHTSA as well as the NTSB are investigating the Jan. 23 collision between a self driving Waymo and a 9-year-old California girl who was running across the street from behind a double parked SUV towards a school. Waymo claims that the vehicle detected the girl immediately, and braked hard to reduce speed from 17 mph down to 6 mph. (Reporting and editing by David Shepardson, Chizu Nomiyama, and Nick Zieminski).
Mr Lufthansa uses crisis playbook to address costs and union disputes
Carsten Spohr, the chief executive of Lufthansa, is firmly focused on his expansive airline empire. In the background, giant screens flash flight delay data as well as other performance indicators. Spohr is a former pilot who has been in charge of a company that includes Germany's flagship airline, ITA Airways, Eurowings and other firms for more than a decade. He also led the firm through the pandemic, and a fatal crash, which occurred in?2015.
Spohr, one of the most prominent and divisive airline chiefs in recent years, is hoping to leverage his crisis management experience to help him overcome challenges, such as geopolitical disruptions and delays with plane deliveries, and to keep investors happy after years spent fighting unions and reducing shares. Spohr said he would focus on efficiency, centralise management of the 12 airlines in the group and increase long-haul flights.
Spohr told his office, which was surrounded by glass, that it helps to be a pilot in order to know the company well.
"Anyone can run a business in good weather." It's in crisis situations at the end that you can show your leadership.
Spohr is trying to get rid of the regional laggard label that Lufthansa has against Air France-KLM, British Airways and IAG.
This has taken some of the heat off but the margins are still narrow and the shares remain below the levels at which Spohr began his tenure.
Spohr stated that the company was improving in all areas, including punctuality, operations and efficiency. He added that he has no intention of stepping down before 2028, although "that is up to my wife and board to decide".
In the first nine months of 2025, more than 80% (of the flights) operated by Lufthansa reached the hubs of the airline in Frankfurt and Munich on time. This is the best punctuality rating in ten years.
Spohr admits that Lufthansa, which he called "the problem child" of the group in the past, has struggled. He wants margins to increase to?8-10% from 4.4% between 2028- 2030.
This may require Spohr to continue his "tough", impatient approach. Investors and those close to him have said that this had caused tension in the past.
Hendrik Schmidt, a Lufthansa shareholder DWS, praised Spohr for his long-term experience. "The board must work as a unit."
When asked about Spohr's record, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary praised him for his achievements, but admitted that he sometimes rubbed people the wrong way.
He said, "I think he's done a fantastic job."
Lufthansa is set to publish its annual results on Friday.
STANDOFF WITH UNIONS
Spohr must convince his supporters that Lufthansa’s darkest days are behind them. These were marred by missed goals, delivery delays and a slew of expensive strikes. Last month, hundreds of Lufthansa flight were cancelled due to pilots and attendants walking out. This caused disruptions for over 100,000 passengers.
Andreas Pinheiro is the president of Lufthansa Union VC. He said that when Spohr became CEO, there was a lot of optimism about smoother relations. However, this did not last.
He said that the "euphoria of the pilot at the helm" was quickly replaced by "skepticism", as the workers were "deliberately pitted together".
Spohr acknowledged the complexity of discussions with labour representatives but said that state-backed Middle Eastern carriers had a different set of challenges when it came to hiring and terminating people. He said, "It is not an even playing field."
Peter Gerber, CEO of Condor, a rival German airline, who worked for Spohr in Lufthansa at one time, defended Spohr's handling of union disputes and praised Gerber's quick thinking and ability to adapt during crises.
Gerber said, "He may have lived and breathed airline industry more than anyone else." The Germanwings crash of 2015 was perhaps the most difficult time in his career. He is responsible for Lufthansa's safety.
'MR LUFTHANSA'
Analysts and investors see the complex fleet of older Boeing and Airbus planes as a "major drag" on Lufthansa. Spohr claims that new deliveries will enable the airline to "finally unlock growth" including better fuel efficiency and lower maintenance costs.
After losses in 2024 the core brand?Lufthansa is being overhauled. This includes major investments in fleet renewal and updating outdated cabins.
Spohr's close associates spoke of his prominence and level of control. Former aviation officials who worked with Spohr called him "effectively demigod".
Ingo Speich, who is the head of Deka Investments, which owns a stake in Lufthansa said that if Spohr achieved his goals, it would enhance his legacy. He added that "no decision important bypasses him".
He said, "Carsten is Mr Lufthansa."
(source: Reuters)