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Delta halts growth plans due to fuel price spike

Delta Air Lines, on Wednesday, halted all capacity expansions for the current quarter. The company also forecast a profit that was below Wall Street's expectations. It warned that the Iran War would drive up jet fuel costs by more than $2 billion in the quarter ending June.

Ed Bastian, CEO of the Atlanta-based carrier, said that it was "imprudent" to give an updated outlook for the full year due to uncertainty about how long fuel prices would remain high.

Extreme swings in jet-fuel prices have forced airlines to rethink their growth plans.

According to the trade group Airlines for America, jet fuel prices were $4.81 per gallon on February 8, up from $2.50 before the first U.S./Israeli strike on Iran in February. Delta expects to spend about $4.30 per gallon during the second quarter.

The U.S. president Donald Trump announced late on Tuesday a ceasefire of two weeks with Iran. This sparked a rally for airline stocks and a drop in oil prices to below $100 per barrel.

Delta's shares rose 6% during midday trading. Southwest Airlines, United Airlines, Alaska Airlines and?American Airlines all saw their shares rise between 7% to 11%.

Bastian, Delta's chief financial officer, told analysts on the earnings call: "We woke this morning with very different fuel assumptions from what we had before we went to sleep."

He said that the company expected oil prices to remain "higher" for a longer period of time than originally predicted, making immediate relief uncertain. Some airline executives also stated that they don't see any immediate relief.

Fuel costs typically account for about a quarter of airline operating expenses, making carriers vulnerable when fuel prices rise faster than the fares which are usually set months or weeks in advance.

The current price increase is the first major stress test for the airline industry after the pandemic. It will be a test of how much they can charge travelers and how quickly costs will rise.

Bastian stated that it would accelerate structural changes across the industry.

He said, "It will separate the winners from the losers and force the weaker ones to take some significant steps either to get better or to do something else."

CARRIERS SLASH LOWER MARGIN ROUTES

Delta announced that it would reduce capacity by approximately 3.5 percentage points compared to its original plan. It noted that its growth forecast now has a “downward bias” until fuel prices improve. The capacity reductions are mainly aimed at lower-revenue flights, like overnight red-eye flights or some midweek services.

To conserve fuel and protect margins, other carriers have begun to trim schedules as well, especially on routes with lower margins and travel that is less time sensitive. Since March 13, U.S. Airlines have reduced planned domestic capacity by more than a half-point.

Airlines have so far relied on the still-strong demand for travel to recover a portion of their higher fuel bills through fare increases and baggage fees, as well as other ancillary fees.

Bastian stated that Delta aims to recover between 40% and 50% of the higher fuel costs during the second quarter. On Tuesday, Delta announced that it would be increasing the 'checked bag fees' for new bookings. This follows similar moves by United Airlines and JetBlue Airways.

Bastian hinted that the increased fees might stick. He said that at this price of fuel it is hard to say anything was temporary.

He downplayed concerns that higher fares and charges could impact demand. He said ticket sales have increased at a double-digit rate year-on-year in the last month, and momentum has continued into the second quarter.

He said that higher-income travelers are resilient, and Delta has yet to notice any change in demand.

Delta, unlike its main rivals, has a buffer that is a Pennsylvania-based refinery owned by a subsidiary. The refinery is expected to generate $300 million in revenue in the second quarter. This is up from $60 million in March.

Delta anticipates earnings adjusted of $1.00 to $1.50 a share for the quarter ending June. According to LSEG, the midpoint of the forecast is $1.25, which is below the average $1.41 that analysts are expecting.

The airline's adjusted earnings per share for the March quarter were 64 cents, exceeding analysts' expectations of 57 cents.

In January, the company forecast adjusted earnings per share of $6.50 - $7.50 for the full year. According to LSEG data, analysts now expect earnings per share of $5.40.

(source: Reuters)