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Bousso: Iran's 'tollbooth' at Hormuz will hard-wire higher energy costs
For now, the war that shut down the Strait of Hormuz is over. Tehran's insistence on acting as the toll booth keeper for the world's critical?oil artery could make energy markets more vulnerable and lead to higher prices. According to U.S. president Donald Trump, the U.S., Iran and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire on Tuesday, which was mediated by Pakistan. Tehran must halt its blockade against oil and gas through the Strait. According to an Iranian official, the waterway through which a fifth or more of the world's gas and oil flowed prior to the U.S./Israeli war against Iran, it could reopen by Friday, but in a?limited?fashion, under Iranian control. Tehran also said on Tuesday that it would charge ships passing through the strait a fee under a permanent deal. The strait is only 34 km wide (21 miles) at its narrowest part between Iran and Oman. Some media reports suggest that Oman is strongly opposing any such toll system under the existing agreements. Others claim that a similar toll system already exists. In an interview with ABC News, Trump stated that the U.S. also considered setting up a joint-venture to charge ships tolls to access Hormuz. It is unclear how such a plan would work in reality. Iran could have the upper hand. The conflict has shown?Tehran’s ability to use drones, sea mines and missiles to attack dozens of vessels - giving it powerful leverage without a formal ban. A toll system in Iran would violate one of the most fundamental principles of international law, freedom of navigation. Under this principle, ships may navigate international waters free of interference by coastal states. The United States has always positioned itself as a global guarantor, enforcing that principle through diplomatic pressure and naval patrols. Washington would be forced to make a major strategic shift if it allowed Iran to control the Hormuz Strait. This would also represent a shock to the Middle East's oil and gas industry, which is the lifeblood of many countries, including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. This would create a layer of permanent political risk, both for Gulf producers and customers. Tehran would have disproportionate control over which ships could transit at what time. Iran could, for instance, outright ban Israeli-owned vessels, slow Saudi shipments in order to exert pressure on Riyadh or use delays as a leverage in unrelated disputes. They would not want Tehran to have such a strong grip on their main trade route. The implications for Asian buyers would be serious. China, Japan South Korea and India are heavily dependent on Gulf supply. Even modest and unpredictable disruptions could have a significant impact on refining margins and spot prices for liquefied gas and inflation expectations. It is unclear how much damage will be caused by the transit of vessels from Iran to friendly nations like China, India, Iraq, and Pakistan. HIGHER COSTS The toll could be significant financially. According to reports, the toll could cost as much as $2 million for each transit. This is roughly equivalent to the total cost to charter a large crude carrier to travel from the Middle East all the way to China in 2025. In addition to the death toll, increased security risks will increase insurance premiums for LNG carriers and tankers entering the Gulf. This will further drive up transportation costs. The war-risk premiums, which were volatile even before the conflict, will likely continue to be a structural feature of the market. Some ships could try to follow the coastline of Oman while transiting Hormuz. This would reduce the overall traffic volume and still expose ships to Iranian missiles, drones, and fast-attack craft. ALTERNATIVE ROUTES OF EXPORT These risks, combined with the uncertainty surrounding relations with Iran, will likely lead Saudi Arabia and UAE to continue using alternative oil export routes that were used during the war for many months, if they are not years. Saudi Aramco, the state oil giant, began pumping large quantities of crude through its East West pipeline to the Red Sea Port of Yanbu soon after the outbreak of war on February 28. This was done in accordance with contingency plans that were developed specifically for such a situation. The pipeline can transport 7 million barrels a day. Of this, 5 million barrels a day are exported, and the remainder is used to feed domestic refineries. According to Kpler, Saudi Arabia exported an average of 3.3 million barrels per day from its west coast ports in March. This is nearly half of the volume it will export by 2025. Even these alternatives have proven to be vulnerable. An industry source said that the East-West pipeline had been hit by an Iranian attack just hours after ceasefire announcement. Flows were expected to be affected. The UAE also diverted additional volumes via its pipeline to Fujairah's oil terminal outside of the Gulf. Kpler reports that exports from Fujairah increased to 1.6m bpd from averaging 1.1m bpd since 2025. These routes are essential for producers and buyers to hedge against the Hormuz threat, but they do not offer a full solution due to their limited capacity and vulnerability to regional tensions. The mere possibility of Iranian oversight is already changing risk perceptions, even if the full toll system never materializes. Iranian control of the Strait would give Tehran disproportionate power in the region's economic lifeline. Saudi Arabia and allies will resist this, whether diplomatically or not. Although the ceasefire is holding, for Gulf oil exporters and their allies, the battle for Hormuz has just begun. Ron Bousso is a columnist at. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Russian drones damage substation in Odesa region, Ukrainian officials say
Officials from Ukraine said that Russian drones destroyed a substation in the southern Odesa region of Ukraine on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Moscow's forces repeatedly attacked areas further east, killing one person. Oleh Kiper, regional governor of Odesa region, said that emergency services were on the scene and there had been no reported injuries. DTEK is a large energy company. It said that?one of their substations was damaged. Crews were waiting for word to start repairs. DTEK stated that the area had been under Russian attack "almost around the clock". Ukraine's energy infrastructure has been attacked for months. In the four-year conflict, the Russian military has repeatedly targeted the Black Sea port of Odesa and the areas around it. Ivan Fedorov said that a glide bomb strike overnight killed a man outside of Zaporizhzhia in the southeast. Oleksandr Gisha, the Governor of Dnipropetrovsk, said that Russian artillery and drones attacked a number of towns in the region nearly 40 times during the day. Officials have also reported drone attacks in Sloviansk near the frontline in the eastern Donetsk Region, in Kherson in the south, and Sumy in the border region with Russia. Venyamin Kodratiev, the governor of southern Russia's Krasnodar Region, said that falling drone debris killed an individual on a balcony of a building located northeast of the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. It was not possible to independently verify the accounts of either side. Reporting by Ron Popeski, Oleksandr Kozoukhar and Stephen Coates; Editing by David Gregorio & Stephen Coates
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Russian drones damage substation in Odesa region, Ukrainian officials say
Russian drones destroyed a power station in Ukraine's southern Odesa region, officials said. Meanwhile, Moscow's forces attacked areas further east repeatedly, killing one person and injuring eight others. Oleh Kiper said in Telegram that emergency services were still at the scene of the attack. He stated that no injuries were reported. DTEK is a large private energy company. One of its substations was damaged. Crews waited for word to start repairs. DTEK claimed that the area had been under Russian attacks "almost around the clock". Ukraine has been attacked by the Russian military for several months. The Black Sea port of Odesa is vital for many Ukrainian exports. Areas in the surrounding area have also been frequently targeted by the Russian military during the four-year conflict. Ivan Fedorov is the governor of Zaporizhzhia, a region in the south-east. He said that a glide bomb strike overnight killed a man outside a village near Zaporizhzhia, which is also known as Zaporizhzhia. Two women were also injured. Oleksandr Gánchá, the?governor in the Dnipropetrovsk Region, said that Russian artillery and drones had struck a number of?towns almost 40 times during the day. At least three people have been injured. Officials reported drone attacks that caused injuries in Sloviansk near the frontline, in eastern Donetsk Region, in Kherson Region to the south, and in Sumy Region, on the border of Russia. Reporting by Ron Popeski, Oleksandr Kozoukhar and David Gregorio
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Southwest will fly wine free as an airline fee rises
Southwest Airlines is offering to fly wine?free of charge from certain parts of the United States. West Coast airlines have launched new flights to California's wine country, a rare freebie in an era of high fuel prices. The carrier announced on Wednesday that passengers will be able to "check in one case of wine" for free starting April 24, mainly from the wine regions along the West coast. The carrier announced its decision as it began service to Santa Rosa, California on Tuesday. Southwest Airlines and Delta Air Lines announced this week that they will increase fees for checked baggage, following the lead of United Airlines and JetBlue in the U.S. to offset rising jet fuel prices linked to the Middle East war. Jet fuel prices have been rising in the global aviation industry, and are expected to continue for several months despite a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. Iran. Since the pandemic began, U.S. airlines have built their business on premium travelers, corporate accounts, and loyalty program members. They bet that these customers will not pull out when fares increase.
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Fed rate cut betting revived, in a small way, by the ceasefire in the Iran war
Federal Reserve policymakers could consider lowering interest rates this year, now that the?announcement of a two-week pause in the Iran conflict?has eased fears about a resurgence of inflation. However, with the uncertainty surrounding the prospects for peace, and oil prices 30% higher than their prewar level, it is still far from certain. On Wednesday, traders bet on the possible impact of a lasting Middle East settlement and the reopening of Strait of Hormuz for shipping. Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon and an Iranian attack on a Saudi Arabian pipeline have raised uncertainty about the temporary truce. Minutes from the Fed meeting of March showed that some central bankers were willing to raise rates if inflation remained high. The data expected this week is likely to show that consumer prices rose in March at an unprecedented pace, not seen since 2022 when post-pandemic inflation peaked and triggered a round of aggressive Fed rate increases. Fed policymakers have said that a temporary spike in headline prices would not warrant a change in short-term rates. However, a longer-lasting conflict and higher prices which could affect household finances could force policymakers to make a tough choice. They could either keep rates high in order to combat inflation, or reduce rates to cushion the economy. As a U.S. peace delegation was heading to Pakistan this weekend for talks, traders hedged their bets. Interest rate futures contracts reflect a 1 in 4 chance that the U.S. will cut interest rates by year's end. This is down from a 65% probability of a rate reduction priced immediately following the ceasefire. However, it's also a big shift from the time before the ceasefire when traders had already built in some chances of a Fed interest rate hike. Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha wrote: "With conditions less likely to force the Fed to raise this year, we believe the market should be pricing closer to a full cut in the U.S.," The'shift in expectations of central banks after the ceasefire announcement is more apparent elsewhere - traders are reducing their bets that multiple rate increases by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England would occur. Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed did not dwell on the implications of a ceasefire for interest rate policy when she spoke Wednesday. She told the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce that it is too early to tell how the 'Iran War and higher oil prices will affect the economy, because it depends how long the conflict lasts. She said, "There is a concern this may push inflation higher: it's our responsibility to focus on that." "There's concern that the labor market might not be as solid. But we don't see that. We're just seeing it settle in a good spot." (Reporting and editing by Andrea Ricci)
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Israeli strikes on Gaza kill four including Al Jazeera journalists, doctors say
Local health officials and Qatari television reported that Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza Strip resulted in the deaths of four people, including an Al Jazeera reporter. Health authorities reported that the strike which killed Al Jazeera's Mohammed?Washah was on a vehicle that he and another Palestinian were driving along a?coastal route in Gaza City. The military accused Washah in February 2024 at the height of the?Israeli?war on Gaza of being a Hamas military wing member. The photos, it claimed, showed him using weapons systems. The photos were found on a computer, which it claimed troops had taken during a raid to Gaza. Hamas, and Al Jazeera both denied Washah's affiliation at the time. Israel's military didn't immediately reply to a request for a comment about his death. Al Jazeera reported that the drone attack killed him. Hamas's government-run media office in Gaza has condemned the killing of Washah. Two more people killed in Gaza Medics in Gaza reported that an Israeli airstrike had killed two people, but did not provide any details. Israel's military did not immediately comment on the incident. Israel and Hamas signed a deal in October last year, mediated by the United States. The agreement was intended to stop violence on?Palestinian soil. Both sides accuse one another of breaching the agreement. Since the agreement, Israeli fire has killed 700 people. Israel claims that four militants have killed Israeli soldiers during the same time period. Israel has killed Al Jazeera reporters in Gaza and the West Bank occupation. Anas Al-Sharif, a journalist for Al Jazeera, was killed in August 2025 along with four of his colleagues by an Israeli airstrike. The military claimed he was the leader of a Hamas militant group, but Al Jazeera denied this. Shireen Abu-Akleh, a U.S. citizen and Palestinian, was killed by Israeli troops in May 2022 while covering a military mission in Jenin, a West Bank city. According to the military, an investigation concluded that she was most likely killed unintentionally by Israeli forces. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, 223 journalists and media professionals were killed in Gaza and Lebanon. Journalists working for the. According to CPJ, the count includes 210 Palestinians who were killed by Israel on Gaza, 11 by Israel in Lebanon and two Israelis killed in the Hamas attack in October 2023, which started the Gaza War. CPJ claims that Israel has never made anyone responsible for the killing of journalists by its military. A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces said that they have targeted only combatants and military targets, avoiding civilians and journalists. They also warned about the inherent dangers of staying in active battle zones, despite their best efforts to minimize harm. The military has claimed at times without providing any verifiable proof that journalists were murdered because they had links with Hamas. Their news organizations denied this.
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Delta halts growth plans due to fuel price spike
Delta Air Lines, on Wednesday, halted all capacity expansions for the current quarter. The company also forecast a profit that was below Wall Street's expectations. It warned that the Iran War would drive up jet fuel costs by more than $2 billion in the quarter ending June. Ed Bastian, CEO of the Atlanta-based carrier, said that it was "imprudent" to give an updated outlook for the full year due to uncertainty about how long fuel prices would remain high. Extreme swings in jet-fuel prices have forced airlines to rethink their growth plans. According to the trade group Airlines for America, jet fuel prices were $4.81 per gallon on February 8, up from $2.50 before the first U.S./Israeli strike on Iran in February. Delta expects to spend about $4.30 per gallon during the second quarter. The U.S. president Donald Trump announced late on Tuesday a ceasefire of two weeks with Iran. This sparked a rally for airline stocks and a drop in oil prices to below $100 per barrel. Delta's shares rose 6% during midday trading. Southwest Airlines, United Airlines, Alaska Airlines and?American Airlines all saw their shares rise between 7% to 11%. Bastian, Delta's chief financial officer, told analysts on the earnings call: "We woke this morning with very different fuel assumptions from what we had before we went to sleep." He said that the company expected oil prices to remain "higher" for a longer period of time than originally predicted, making immediate relief uncertain. Some airline executives also stated that they don't see any immediate relief. Fuel costs typically account for about a quarter of airline operating expenses, making carriers vulnerable when fuel prices rise faster than the fares which are usually set months or weeks in advance. The current price increase is the first major stress test for the airline industry after the pandemic. It will be a test of how much they can charge travelers and how quickly costs will rise. Bastian stated that it would accelerate structural changes across the industry. He said, "It will separate the winners from the losers and force the weaker ones to take some significant steps either to get better or to do something else." CARRIERS SLASH LOWER MARGIN ROUTES Delta announced that it would reduce capacity by approximately 3.5 percentage points compared to its original plan. It noted that its growth forecast now has a “downward bias” until fuel prices improve. The capacity reductions are mainly aimed at lower-revenue flights, like overnight red-eye flights or some midweek services. To conserve fuel and protect margins, other carriers have begun to trim schedules as well, especially on routes with lower margins and travel that is less time sensitive. Since March 13, U.S. Airlines have reduced planned domestic capacity by more than a half-point. Airlines have so far relied on the still-strong demand for travel to recover a portion of their higher fuel bills through fare increases and baggage fees, as well as other ancillary fees. Bastian stated that Delta aims to recover between 40% and 50% of the higher fuel costs during the second quarter. On Tuesday, Delta announced that it would be increasing the 'checked bag fees' for new bookings. This follows similar moves by United Airlines and JetBlue Airways. Bastian hinted that the increased fees might stick. He said that at this price of fuel it is hard to say anything was temporary. He downplayed concerns that higher fares and charges could impact demand. He said ticket sales have increased at a double-digit rate year-on-year in the last month, and momentum has continued into the second quarter. He said that higher-income travelers are resilient, and Delta has yet to notice any change in demand. Delta, unlike its main rivals, has a buffer that is a Pennsylvania-based refinery owned by a subsidiary. The refinery is expected to generate $300 million in revenue in the second quarter. This is up from $60 million in March. Delta anticipates earnings adjusted of $1.00 to $1.50 a share for the quarter ending June. According to LSEG, the midpoint of the forecast is $1.25, which is below the average $1.41 that analysts are expecting. The airline's adjusted earnings per share for the March quarter were 64 cents, exceeding analysts' expectations of 57 cents. In January, the company forecast adjusted earnings per share of $6.50 - $7.50 for the full year. According to LSEG data, analysts now expect earnings per share of $5.40.
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Panama calls on China to respect its port rulings after detention of ships
Panama's top diplomatic official said on Wednesday that a.rise in inspections and.detentions of Panama flagged vessels in China was.caused by a Panama court decision.against Hong Kong based CK.Hutchison.and urged China to respect Panama's sovereign affairs. Panama's Supreme Court invalidated in January the legal framework that supported conglomerate CK Hutchison’s right to operate two key terminals close to the Panama Canal via its Panama unit, leading the Panama government cancel the cancellation of concessions. At a?conference in Asuncion, the capital of Paraguay, Panamanian foreign minister Javier Martinez-Acha expressed his hope that the increase in ship detentions seen in March will return to normal. He said that the ruling has led to an increase in the number of inspections and detentions of vessels flying our flags in ports of People's Republic of China. "Panama... respects the legal sovereignty of all countries and we ask only for the same treatment." The Chinese embassy in Panama didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Detentions are the latest flashpoint of the battle between China and the United States for influence on international trade. Panama, and its strategic canal that handles about 5% global maritime trade, is in the middle. Panama's Foreign Affairs Ministry thanked United States and other countries on Saturday for expressing concern about the detentions. The U.S. Maritime Commission, which is part of the U.S. Department of State, said in late March that it was closely watching the increase in the number of Panama-flagged ships being detained in China. China opposes CK Hutchison losing its port concessions and calls it "an act of bad faith." CK Hutchison has accused the Panamanian authorities of illegally seizing properties and filed an international arbitration against Panama. The company is claiming damages in excess of $2 billion. (Reporting from Asuncion by Daniela DeSantis; Writing by Brendan O'Boyle, Editing by Daina-Beth Solomon)
US FAA fines American Southwest Airlines for alleged drug and alcohol violations
The US Federal Aviation Administration proposed on Wednesday a civil fine of $255,000 against American Airlines, alleging the carrier had violated employee drug- and alcohol-testing regulations.
The FAA proposed an identical fine on Friday against Southwest Airlines.
The FAA announced on Wednesday that American had allowed 12 flight attendants to return to safety-sensitive work without having completed all of the required follow-up tests between May 2019 and Dec 2023.
American stated that it was reviewing FAA's notice. The'safety' of our team and customers is paramount. The airline stated that it takes drug and alcohol tests seriously, and works with the FAA on any issues.
The FAA announced a fine of $304,000 against Southwest on Friday. It claimed that the airline failed to perform required drug and alcohol tests for 11 employees including pilots. flight attendants. and aircraft mechanics. ?
The FAA stated that the employees had 'previously tested positively for alcohol or drugs, including marijuana and cocaine. The regulator stated that the employees performed safety-sensitive tasks between August 2021 to July 2024 when Southwest Airlines did not require them to undergo required follow-up tests.
Southwest Airlines said that it takes its drug and alcohol testing responsibility seriously and continues to engage with the FAA.
The airline stated that it took immediate action over two years ago to improve its procedures, and to strengthen oversight and accountability.
Both airlines have 30 calendar days to respond. Reporting by David Shepardson and Kanishka Singh; editing by David Ljunggren, David Gregorio and David Gregorio
(source: Reuters)