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JetBlue Airways' return to profitability may be affected by the Spirit bailout and its large fuel bill

JetBlue Airways, which was on its way to its first profit since the pandemic began, has been forced to increase its debt in order to quell bankruptcy speculation. New York-based JetBlue Airways began the year with a sense of confidence that a multi-year restructuring, which was launched in 2024, would be successful as cost pressures had eased and demand for travel remained strong. Fuel prices have increased since the Middle East war broke out, and a possible U.S. bailout for Spirit Airlines could undermine JetBlue's fragile recoveries. Wall Street wonders if the airline can survive the worst jet-fuel supply crisis in the history of the industry, a result of Washington's Iran war. The war is destroying profits for U.S. carriers, even though they are reporting high demand.

INVESTORS WAIT FOR QUARTERLY RESULT

JetBlue will report its quarterly results on February 2, and Wall Street is expected to scrutinize the impact of high jet fuel prices on the carrier's margins. The company?recorded net annual losses since 2019, and has promised to break even this year on a net-basis.

Jet Forward, its turnaround program, netted the airline $300 million before taxes, interest and other expenses in 2025. Its forecast for 2026 also included a similar amount, assuming a fuel average of $2.27 / gallon. Last month, however, the airline revised its fuel estimate for the first quarter to $3.01-$3.06 per gallon.

JetBlue would have to spend $2.5 billion, or $450 million more, than in 2025 if it consumed 826 million gallons in 2026 at $3.04 per gallon. The costs of these increases would cancel out the savings that JetBlue had made last year from its lower fuel consumption, which could have been used to pay off some of the $9.5 billion it owed in debts and lease obligations.

Daniel McKenzie is an equity analyst with Seaport Research. He expects JetBlue to increase its fuel expenses by 40% annually to $2.9 billion. He assumes JetBlue will offset about 30% of these costs by higher revenues, resulting in a pre-tax profit of approximately $1.1 billion.

JetBlue has declined to comment about this story.

LIQUIDITY NOT AN IMMEDIATE CONCERN JetBlue concerns go beyond jet ?fuel prices. Spirit Airlines' rescue by the government could lead to a renewed competition among JetBlue's leisure travelers for low-cost routes.

Budget carrier JetBlue is taking steps to correct its course. JetBlue CEO Joanna Geraghty said last week that the low-budget airline was not contemplating bankruptcy this year. JetBlue's debt is high for its size but it ended the year with $2.3 billion cash.

JetBlue has also significant assets that it can borrow against. Joseph Rohlena of Fitch's North American Airlines analyst said that JetBlue was not concerned about liquidity at this time. Fitch downgraded JetBlue's credit rating earlier this month to CCC+. The company was worried about its ability to pay for fixed expenses with?its earnings.

Rohlena, who was referring to raising money, said that if fuel prices remain high, or if the demand for oil starts to fall, and they start to burn more cash, then it may be necessary to return to the market.

JetBlue is a smaller?carrier with fewer international flights. It also offers premium seating options that are highly sought after by affluent travellers.

Even these carriers have reported significant pressure due to rising fuel prices.

Delta expects to recover 40 to 50 cents for every dollar more it spends on extra fuel in this quarter. United will see a similar gap, before it improves later in the year. Alaska Airlines only recovers about a third of the fuel increase. This forced it to withdraw their forecast.

(source: Reuters)