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Wall St Week Ahead: Investors watch for Fed clues and earnings signs, as tech wobbles

Investors will be looking for clues to the possibility of an impending rate hike and the early signs of a crucial earnings season in the coming weeks as they gauge the strength the U.S. Stock Market's rally. The second half 2026 began 'this week, much like the first half did.' Heavyweight technology shares were swaying the major indexes. The minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting last month, along with earnings from Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo and other companies, may provide new signs for a market that has been shaky in recent weeks.

The market has seen gains over the last few months thanks to tech shares, and in particular semiconductors. The benchmark S&P 500 rose 14.9% during the second quarter, which ended on Tuesday. This was its best quarter since 2019. In recent months, this group has seen dramatic swings, with some steep drops to close out the week. Over the last month, other sectors such as financial, industrial, and healthcare stocks have done well, giving investors hope of a healthy market rotation.

Joe Mazzola is the head trading and derivatives strategy at Charles Schwab. He said, "I'll be watching to see if that broadening persists." If you start to see a prolonged pullback of some technology winners, will that mean the market is going backwards?

INVESTORS GET RATE INSIGHTS FROM FED MINUTES. The interest rate outlook has changed from the expectations of equity-friendly rates cuts at the start of the year to the projections of increases in the months ahead. These expectations of rate hikes were slightly reduced on Thursday after a less-than-expected job report. Following the Federal Reserve's meeting last month, which was led for the first time by Kevin Warsh as its new chairperson, hawkish bets were on the rise. He said the Fed would be focused on price stability and inflation that is above its 2% target. The minutes of that meeting will be published on Wednesday.

Warsh warned that the Fed would not 'hold the hand of the market any longer and had thrown out its forward guidance as to what it might do in the short term. This could make the minutes of future Fed meetings more significant.

Matthew Miskin is the co-chief investment strategy at Manulife John Hancock Investments.

Investors and markets will be asking: what is the new Fed Chairman and updated (Fed Policymaking Body) looking for in order to determine the future path of interest rates? Investors said that a key issue was how Fed policymakers viewed the inflationary impact on energy prices. Prices had declined in recent months due to the Iran war spikes. The extent of the divisions among Fed officials is another important topic.

Bonds can be more attractive to investors than stocks if interest rates rise. This is because higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for both consumers and businesses.

LSEG data showed that Fed fund futures were trading at roughly equal odds late Thursday night. The central?bank is expected to raise rates before its meeting in September. The Labor Department's data on Thursday showed that U.S. employment growth was slowed dramatically in June. This eased some concerns about a rate hike.

"If the Fed does become more restrictive and begins a tightening process, this is a risk for the market and valuations," James Ragan, director of investment research and co-CIO at D.A. Davidson. "I think it's important to get more information about what the Fed is thinking.

SEASONAL PIVOTAL EARNINGS

The release of data on manufacturing and services could clarify the inflation trend in a week that is relatively light for U.S. Economic Data.

In recent months, stocks have recovered from the declines caused by the U.S./Israeli conflict over Iran. The S&P 500 has risen more than 9% since 2026 while the Nasdaq Composite, which is heavily tech-heavy, has risen 11%. The market's rise was fueled by the surprising strength of first-quarter corporate profit. This has raised the bar as the second-quarter report season heats up this month.

Next week, two early reports will be released: Delta snacks and beverage maker PepsiCo. They offer different perspectives about consumer spending trends.

According to LSEG, IBES, the S&P 500 is expected to grow earnings in the second quarter by over 24%.

Keith Lerner is the chief investment officer of Truist Advisory Services. He said that if the north star is earnings, then the most important thing to do for earnings season is to confirm the earnings trajectory this year, and ensure the upward momentum will continue into next year. (Reporting and editing by Michelle Price, David Gregorio, and Lewis Krauskopf)

(source: Reuters)