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Saudi Red Sea oil exports are halted as Houthi attacks grow

Analysts say that all recent Yanbu loads have been done "darkly" to avoid being attacked by Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis. On July 20, the Houthis announced a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, opening a new front in the Iran War against the United States. Since then, they've claimed attacks against Saudi-linked oil tankers, Yanbu facilities, and most recently the Jazan refinery along the Red Sea Coast. This has led to more vessels operating without publically visible tracking data.

Dark voyages, or the increasing use of them, obscure the visibility of Saudi oil exports and make it difficult to determine the extent to which Houthi threats could disrupt crude flow.

The ship-tracking companies have?produced widely varying export estimates - a data that is used by the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC, and traders to assess and forecast global oil supply. Data analytics firm Vortexa reported that Yanbu loadings dropped to 2.38m barrels per day, from 2.71m the week before. Kpler predicted a more dramatic drop, to 1.78m bpd, from 4.04m, while AXSMarine estimated an increase to 850,000bpd, from 420,000bpd.

Saudi Aramco has not responded to a comment request.

CONDUCTED DARK

The?those?trying to track shipments depend on a vessel appearing again on tracking systems after it has left the area of high risk, using satellite data for cross-checking movements and trying to fill in any gaps.

Last week, all Yanbu liftings took place in the dark. "We're not currently seeing any loadings that have Automatic Identification System (AIS)," said Vortexa analyst George Morris.

Kpler analyst Nhway Khin Soe stated that about 70% of Saudi west-coast loadings in the last few weeks were dark. He added that all Yanbu cargoes 'loaded since July 23, involved vessels without continuous AIS cover.

Two years of Houthi attacks against commercial shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb strait, at the southernmost tip of the Red Sea, had already affected the flow of traffic. Kpler data shows that 32 vessels per day averaged transiting the waterway in the past week. This is down from 50 vessels a days before the Houthi group announced their latest blockade.

Saudi Arabia is sending more oil through the Red Sea via the Suez Canal and Egypt's SUMED Pipeline, which connects Ain Sokhna, on the Red Sea coast, to Sidi Kerir, on the Mediterranean.

Morris, Vortexa’s?spokesman, said that the average number of crude and condensate loadings at Sidi Kerir was 2.17 million bpd, which is around 50% more than the previous week. About 90% of total volumes were Saudi crude. War risk insurance costs have risen in recent days, and tanker companies also change their sailing strategies.

Major oil tanker operator DHT had previously departed the Red Sea via Bab al-Mandeb to lift oil.

Svein Moxnes Harfjeld, CEO of DHT, said in a recent earnings call that "that has become more challenging." It's fair that most VLCC (supertanker), not just ours have moved north and northwest.

(source: Reuters)