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AI race replaces e-commerce growth engine in Asian air cargo

As cross-border ecommerce loses steam, the global race to develop artificial intelligence is changing Asia's air freight map. Airlines are redesigning their networks to focus on growing semiconductor manufacturing centers.

Airlines and logistics companies claim that unlike the parcel boom following the pandemic, the 'demand for AI infrastructure' is backed by multi-year orders of advanced memory chips and processing units and hundreds of millions of dollars in?planned? investment into data centres.

Moreover, the tighter import regulations in the U.S.A. and Europe that have been affecting the recent growth of the e-commerce industry are dampening it.

When Xeneta's freight analytics company released its mid-year forecast this month, Niall van de Wouw said that e-commerce used to be the single largest growth pillar for air freight.

Korean Air Lines is one of the most obvious examples of this transition.

Cargo revenue grew 46% to 1.54 trillion won ($1.07billion) in the second quarter, driven by AI chips and server racks. The airline said that these items had replaced ecommerce from China as their primary growth engine.

Jaedong Eum is the executive vice president of Korean Air and head its cargo division. He said that high-tech advanced cargo has "rapidly expanded" as a key growth driver.

He said that the demand is unusually obvious, as orders for high-bandwidth processors and memory chips are already two to three year out, even though supply continues to be insufficient.

According to Xeneta, global semiconductor sales in April more than doubled from the previous year. This is the strongest growth in records dating back to 1986. China's low value and ecommerce exports, on the other hand, fell 7% in may, marking its sixth consecutive month of decline.

Last year, the U.S. stopped granting duty-free treatment to low-value imports coming from China. This month, the European Union also eliminated its own threshold for duty-free goods.

Shein, a fast-fashion retailer, said that the changes have hurt its U.S. operations and are expected to cause further headwinds in Europe. Japan's ANA ?Holdings said in a statement that the EU move was ?a downside risk for the broader cargo market even as semiconductor-related shipments remained strong.

REDRAWING TRADE ROUTES

Changes in the cargo mix are also changing trade routes throughout Asia. Japan exports semiconductor production equipment, South Korea makes advanced memory chips, and Taiwan is the center of cutting-edge chip manufacturing.

Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand are becoming increasingly important hubs of manufacturing and assembly for AI servers that will be shipped to North America and Europe.

The first-half freight throughput at Singapore Changi Airport increased 8.7% on an annual basis, mainly due to the strong demand for semiconductors in the world, according to Lim Ching Kiat. He is the executive vice president of the airport group responsible for air hubs and cargo development.

The airlines are reorganizing themselves around these flows.

Japan Airlines reported that technology products accounted?for about 80% of a rise in air exports out of Asia, excluding China during the last year. This highlights how semiconductors and AI-related equipment are reshaping the regional cargo flow. It has increased freighter services connecting semiconductor hubs like Taipei and Bangkok with Tokyo Narita Airport.

ANA announced that it would be integrating Nippon Cargo Airlines in order to move more large freighters - on to trans-Pacific and European route while using its Asian Network to funnel semiconductor cargo out of manufacturing hubs throughout the region.

China Airlines, a Taiwanese carrier, has increased its Southeast Asia freighter flights as manufacturers diversify their production. The demand for AI-related cargo helped to increase cargo volumes by 8.1% during the first half year. EVA Airways reported that AI-related shipments account for as much as half of their cargo revenue.

AI hardware, according to airlines, requires different handling than traditional air freight, because it often includes high-value semiconductor manufacturing gear, graphics processors, and complete server racks.

IATA, the airline group, estimates that AI-related cargo will account for 53.5% in value of all goods transported by air in 2025. However, it will only make up 7% of total cargo volume. AI hardware, unlike much of the e-commerce goods, is small, valuable, and can be time-critical for data centres to stay on schedule. This makes air transportation worth it.

Cathay Pacific Airways has announced that it has introduced a software program to automatically determine how sensitive semiconductor equipment and AI Hardware should be loaded into aircraft.

This surge is also straining the cargo infrastructure. Dimerco Express Group reported that AI and semiconductor shipments filled Taiwan's Taipei airport cargo hub in July to capacity, causing freight space to be tight on routes into the U.S.

Eum, Korean Air's CEO, said that the demand for cargo would continue to be strong through 2026. Reporting by Julie Zhu and Lisa Baertlein, Los Angeles. Editing by Jamie Freed.

(source: Reuters)