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Consultancies predict a rise in Brazil's soya output

On Monday, agribusiness consultants released their first predictions for Brazil's soybean production in 2025/2026. They expect an increase due to geopolitical uncertainty.

Brazil and the United States are the top two soybean producers in the world.

Celeres Consultoria forecasts soybean exports at 110 million tonnes, an increase of 106 million from last season.

Celeres stated that factors such as the expected rise in Brazil's surplus, and uncertainty regarding U.S. Foreign Policy are driving growth in oilseeds exports for 2025/26.

Last week, the U.S. government imposed a tariff of 50% on certain Brazilian goods that will take effect on 6 August. However, some sectors were exempted from this duty. This sparked expectations of further negotiations.

StoneX analyst Ana Luiza Lodi stated that "Geopolitical issues and tariffs could benefit Brazilian soybeans," especially because of the possibility of friction between China and the U.S.

StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean crop will increase by 5.6% in 2025/26, with a production forecast of 178.2 millions tons based on increased planted area and yields.

The consultancy predicts that the soybean area will increase by 2% by 2025/26, with an increase in productivity being driven by the recovery of the crop, in Rio Grande do Sul, the state which was severely affected by extreme flooding last year.

StoneX has also increased its forecast of Brazil's second corn crop for 2024/25 to 111.7 millions tons, an increase of 3.2% over the previous estimate.

AgRural, an agribusiness consulting firm, released data on Monday showing that 81% of the second corn crop for 2025 had been harvested by farmers in Brazil's central-south region as of last week. Reporting by Isabel Teles & Roberto Samora. Mark Potter edited the article.

(source: Reuters)