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As tariffs hit, Peru, the top blueberry supplier in the USA, looks to China.

Blueberry bushes as tall as two meters stretch to the horizon in Peru's Pisco Desert before giving way to dunes. Genetic innovations have allowed varieties such as Eureka Sunset to grow in this type of arid terrain, some 250 km (155 miles south of Lima). Since more than a century, the healthy berries are being shipped north to U.S. grocery shelves. But there's a new competitor in town: China.

The United States is fighting a trade war with other countries, and Peruvian growers are seeking new markets to sell their products. Their best customer, America, has been increasing the tariffs on its partners. China is insatiable and built a new port near Lima to cut shipping times across the Pacific by half.

The export share will change to other markets, said Miguel Bentin. He is the general manager of the Valle y Pampa Farm, a major blueberry producer that began production in 2012. At the time, the harvest was a tenth the size of what it is now.

Deserts have long been used to grow grapes for Pisco brandy (the base of Pisco Sour cocktail). But blueberry farmers transformed the landscape, drilling up to 100 meters deep wells to provide water to the crops, and hiring workers to take care of them. Bentin claims that they are now looking for new customers. Bentin said at the farm that the full potential of China's market for our products had not yet been realized. Valle y Pampa ships 60 percent of its blueberries in the United States, and the other 40 percent to Europe. It is, however, planning to make its first large shipment to China this year in order for it not be affected by the 10% U.S. duty on all Peruvian goods.

According to a half dozen ministers and officials from the agriculture and export sector, as well as government presentations, Peru will surpass Chile by 2021 in terms of exports. The blueberry industry has also been expanding into new markets.

In mid-May, Ursula Leon, Peru's Minister of Foreign Trade and Tourism, said that the search for new markets for agricultural exports in Asia, Europe, and Oceania has intensified. She explained that U.S. Tariffs could slow down the booming growth of deep purple fruits that boosted Peru exports by $2.3 billion in 2013. The 2025-2026 crop is expected to increase by 25%, to 400,000 tonnes. After a meeting, Leon said that if the U.S. Tariff Measure is maintained, there will be a decline in shipments in the agricultural and textile sectors, as well as in mining. She listed India, Indonesia and China among the markets that have growth potential. Peru is in negotiations to eliminate U.S. Tariffs that it claims violate a free-trade agreement. Prices will rise for U.S. customers if supplies from Peru decline. Andean countries are the top suppliers of blueberries in the United States, ahead of Mexico and Chile. Tariffs could affect product availability because a large portion of produce is imported into the U.S., and cannot be produced locally. Ben Wynkoop, Global Industry Strategist of Grocery & Convenience at Blue Yonder which provides supply-chain software to global retailers, said.

He added that, depending on the severity, small retailers with little negotiation power could face inventory shortages. This is especially true for blueberries.

Gabriel Amaro is the head of the Peruvian Association of Agricultural Producers' Guilds. He said that farmers are lobbying government to find a way to protect the free-trade agreement and soften the impact.

Our strategy is to diversify the market. We have a list of products to help us open markets in Asia.

David Magana is a senior research analyst with Rabobank who has a specialization in the global fruit markets. He downplayed any impact tariffs may have had. He said that China produces more berries than the United States for more months in the year.

Magana added, "I don't believe anyone in the industry expects China to overtake the U.S.A. as the primary source of Peruvian blueberries."

CHINA-OWNED, PORT A IS A GAME CHANGER

Peru's larger farm exports, which include grapes and avocados, rose by 22% last year to $12.8 billion. These were mainly exported to the United States of America and Europe. Blueberry exports fell 30% in the first quarter this year compared to last year due to a shift in harvest timing. Even as U.S. quarterly shipments decreased, shipments to China increased, albeit from a lower baseline. Chancay in Peru, the new Chinese-controlled Port, reduces sea travel times to Asia by half, to 20 days. This is a great advantage for fruit preservation. Guangzhou, a port in China, opened a direct route from Chancay to the rest of Asia.

Chancay was used by Fruitist to ship 15-18 containers worth of blueberries from the United States to China in late 2018. Fruitist is a U.S.-based fruit company that exports most of its blueberries out of Peru. John Early, Fruitist’s director of global business, said that the system transforms the logistics and shipping for anyone who is involved in the fresh fruit industry in Peru. There is a great opportunity to grow that business in China.

Bentin, the manager of Valle y Pampa in the Pisco desert, agreed. He predicted a noticeable rise to China once the harvest peaks around August. He said that the port of Chancay is a game-changer, due to its lower costs and quicker transit times.

(source: Reuters)