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Sources say that Russian oil producers may declare force majeure in response to attacks on Baltic ports
Two 'industry' sources said that Russian oil producers warned buyers on Friday they could declare force majeure over supplies from major Baltic Sea ports, as Ukraine continues to attack Russian energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said this week that Kyiv uses long-range attacks to maintain pressure on Russia, after international sanctions against Moscow were eased because of global supply disruptions caused by the Iran War. Sources said that Ukrainian drones targeted the port of Ust-Luga on Friday, where an ongoing fire from a strike made Wednesday still burned. The raids have halted oil loadings in the port since Wednesday, according to sources. They also said that the official suspension notice issued by the Ust-Luga Port Authority did not specify a timeframe for the resumption. According to one source, oil loading from the Ust-Luga Terminal may not resume before mid-April. Primorsk was also damaged by the recent attacks. However, it resumed partial oil and fuel loadings on Thursday. Alexander Drozdenko is the governor of the north-western Leningrad region, where the two ports are located. He said on Friday in a Telegram post that the area has been experiencing "unprecedented drone attacks" since March 22. According to calculations based upon market data, at least 40% of Russia's capacity to export oil is at a standstill because of?Ukrainian attacks on drones, a disputed attack on a pipeline, and the seizure or tankers. (Reporting and Editing by Joe Bavier).
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The high shipping costs and contract structure limit Russia's ability to reroute LNG away from Europe
Industry analysts say that Russia's threats to stop LNG deliveries to Europe and divert cargoes towards Asia would be difficult to achieve due to its long-term agreements and the need for more Arctic class tankers. In a television interview conducted in early March, President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would'stop gas deliveries to Europe immediately and seek long-term commitments from other buyers. Gas prices have risen due to the impact of the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran, which has effectively cut off 20% of the global LNG supply. Russia could be forced to look for alternative customers in order to obtain LNG, as the European Union has banned Russian LNG imports under short-term contracts starting April 25, and long-term agreements beginning January 1, 2027. In a TV interview, Putin said that he had been "thinking aloud" and said: "Perhaps we would be better off if we stopped supplying the European Market right now." Analysts said that the structure of Russia’s LNG contracts left it with limited flexibility to ship gas elsewhere. Kpler data shows that the European Union will import 14.94 million metric tonnes (mt) or 20.3 billion cubic meters (bcm), from the Yamal LNG Project in Russia's Western Arctic by 2025. Around 70% of the Yamal volumes are bound to long-term agreements. Tom Marzec Manser, Director Europe gas & LNG, Wood Mackenzie, stated that Russian companies had around 2.4 mt spot LNG available in this year. It would be uneconomical to send those volumes before the Arctic routes reopen in the summer. Marzec-Manser said that based on the available volumes for the remainder of the year, "a maximum of 1.7 mt can be diverted from Europe to Asia." According to Eurostat, this represents approximately 1.7% of EU LNG imports in 2025, which total 100.5 million tonnes. Shipping the gas can be a challenge, despite the fact that there is a supply. The Northern Sea Route along the Russian Arctic coast is the fastest way to reach Asian customers, but it is only navigable part of the time. Kjell Eikland of Eikland Energy, a shipping consultancy that analyses energy shipping, says that ARC7 ice class vessels are able to travel via the Northern Sea Route between July and late November. Analysts and shipping data indicate that cargos bound for Asia must always travel through the Suez Canal, or via the Cape of Good Hope. This can take up to twice as long, depending on the route. According to Eikland, Yamal LNG exports 18 millions of tons per annum. He said that to maintain this level, and to serve customers in Asia by 2027, Novatek, Yamal LNG’s majority owner, would have to charter 25 to 35 additional tankers for the winter to ship LNG through the Suez Canal, or Cape of Good Hope. Eikland stated that re-routing 30 percent of the volumes sold in spot contracts this year from Europe to Asia could require ten additional vessels. Since early March, Russia has avoided using the Suez route after a tanker containing 'Russian LNG' caught fire near the coast of Libya. Moscow described the incident in Libya as an attack launched by Ukrainian drones. Ukraine has not responded. Need for Big Discounts The issue of financing is another major obstacle for Russia. Yamal does not face direct sanctions by the U.S. and?Europe but many other Russian LNG facilities, vessels, and finance companies do, making it difficult to obtain trade financing. LNG trading sources told that ?payment for extra LNG flows would likely have to be outside conventional banking channels, largely through government-to-government arrangements. According to a Rystad Energy analyst, Masanori Odaka: "LNG freight rates have risen following the Middle East Crisis, so diverting to Asia only makes sense at substantially discounted prices." Analysts said that given the rise in LNG prices, even a steep discount on Russian LNG could still be "too expensive" for Asia's price-sensitive buyers. Analysts said that China, which is already Russia's largest customer, would likely seek large price discounts if it were to purchase any additional Russian LNG. China has taken in all volumes of Russia's Arctic LNG-2 project sanctioned by the United Nations, but at a steep discount of 30-40% to LNG benchmark prices.
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Senate approves funding for Homeland Security in large part after airport shutdown
On Friday, the U.S. senate passed a bill that would?finance the Department of Homeland Security while withholding funds from ICE. This was in response to a partial government shutdown lasting weeks which caused major disruptions at airports. Senate Democrats blocked DHS funding in November, when they sought to curb the Trump administration's immigration crackdown after federal agents killed two U.S. Citizens in Minneapolis. A funding shortage has left tens and thousands of Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employees without pay. This has led some airport security officers to call in sick, or even resign. Donald Trump announced on Thursday that he would pay 50,000 airport workers to address the staff shortages which have caused travel to be hampered across the country. The Senate bill would fund DHS elements such as the TSA and U.S. Coast Guard, but withhold funding from Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection. The bill could be voted on by the House of Representatives as early as this Friday. Chuck Schumer, Democratic Senate Minority Leader, said in a statement that "this agreement funds TSA and the Coast Guard. It also funds FEMA and CISA. This agreement strengthens border security?and entry ports, keeping America safe." He added that "Democrats were steadfast in their opposition to Donald Trump's deadly and rogue militia getting more funding if there are no serious reforms." Republican Senator Susan Collins, who chairs Senate Appropriations Committee said Democrats have damaged Congress' annual funding processes, weakened the national?security and set "a precedence that they may regret one day". She said that Democrats remained intransigent with their demands.
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Lufthansa signs wage agreement with German ground staff
The 'Lufthansa Group' has reached an agreement on collective bargaining for more than 20,000 ground staff in Germany, allowing them to breathe easier as other labour disputes continue. Verdi, a trade union, reported that the agreement reached after four rounds of?talks will see the basic?salary for ground staff raised by 4.65% total in two steps. The '2,2% initial raise was agreed retroactively by Lufthansa for air freight and maintenance and repair units as of January 1, this year. Staff at the passenger?business Deutsche Lufthansa AG will receive their raise one year after that date due to a "challenging environment". From March 1, 2027 there will be a 2.4% increase across all businesses. The airline is still 'in a protracted dispute over benefits with the pilots and flight attendants, who are on strike. (Reporting by Klaus Lauer; writing by Miranda Murray, Ludwig Burger and Thomas Seythal, editing by Thomas Seythal).
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Wall St Week Ahead: US jobs data will give an economic outlook for war-torn markets
The U.S. Employment Report next week will be a major economic event for investors. They'll also closely monitor the Iran War, which is now in its second month. The markets will continue to focus on the impact of the Middle East conflict that has slashed a large portion of oil supply. U.S. crude oil?is up over 60% year-to date to almost $100 a barrel. This has led to U.S. gas prices to?surge at $4 per gallon. This could squeeze consumer spending. Investors worried about inflation pushed benchmark Treasury yields to their highest level since last summer. This could put pressure on equity valuations. The S&P 500 index, which is the standard for the stock market, fell sharply on Thursday. Its slide has now reached nearly 6% in the time since the U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran at the end of February. The Nasdaq Composite closed down by more than 10% compared to its all-time October high, confirming that it was in correction. Jim Baird of Plante Moran Financial Advisors, Chief Investment Officer, stated that the stock market would likely remain headline driven in the coming days due to conflicting signs of a possible de-escalation. Baird stated that any signs of a positive breakthrough in the discussions with Iran, and a cessation in the conflict in Iran would go a great way to 'providing a sense of reassurance and boost sentiment for investors. "Anything which would indicate that this could become longer and drawn-out would be a negative to investor sentiment, and would certainly weigh on the market," Baird said. Tuesday marks the end of a difficult first quarter in U.S. equity markets. Stocks have been rattled by the Iran conflict and concerns over business disruptions caused by artificial intelligence. After three years of double-digit gains, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 5% in 2026. James Ragan is co-CIO at D.A. Davidson. "As we approach the final?couple days of the quarter I think you can see the market sentiment a little bit rolling over." A POSITIVE JOB NUMBER Data suggests that the March payroll report will show an increase of approximately 48,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate around 4.5%. The report is due April 3, when the U.S. Stock Markets will be closed on Good Friday. The previous report for February showed a surprising decline in jobs of 92,000. Ragan noted that, given the fact that the two previous monthly reports showed a negative growth in employment, "anything positive would be good for market," Ragan stated. Next week, we will also be receiving the retail sales figures for February as well as reports on manufacturing and service activity. Last year, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates due to concerns about an deteriorating labor markets. The U.S. Central Bank will be in a difficult position if employment problems become more serious. The Fed had already set a target for inflation, so the surge in energy prices is a barrier to any further rate reductions. According to LSEG data, the markets have 'factored in' no rate cuts this year. Fed funds futures are actually pricing in a small chance of a 2026 hike, according to LSEG. RISE IN YIELDS AND FALLING VALUES The benchmark yield on the 10-year Treasury note has increased to 4.4%, up from 4% just before the start of the war. David Bianco is Americas chief Investment Officer at DWS. He said that the equity market was also paying close attention to the increase in yields. He said that the rise in yields has a wide range of implications, including the mortgage market, debt sustainability for the U.S. Government, and the fair price to earnings valuation. In fact, in recent weeks the market has lowered its valuation. According to LSEG Datastream, the S&P 500 P/E ratio was just below 20 at the end of last year. It had been over 22 when the year began. This P/E remains above the long-term average of 16 Investors want to know the implications of the war on corporate profits and how this will affect energy prices. Delta Air Lines, FedEx and others recently released reports encouraging investors in the face of rising?fuel prices and other costs. Nike will announce its quarterly results on February 2, while the bulk first-quarter results won't be available for a few weeks. Bianco stated, "I believe the U.S. economic situation is still safe from recession." We can argue about the likelihood of a recession increasing as oil prices rise, but I think that we are still a long way from one. (Reporting and editing by Colin Barr, David Gregorio and Lewis Krauskopf)
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Kremlin: Russia does not want to harm US oil business with CPC
Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson on Friday, said that Russia does not seek to undermine U.S. interests in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. He was answering a question regarding comments made by several Russian experts on state television, who suggested that Russia should stop oil deliveries via the CPC to Kazakhstan as a response to Washington sanctions against Russia. CPC, in which U.S. oil giants ExxonMobil and Chevron are major shareholders, exports oil from a Russian port on the Black Sea. Peskov said in a daily press conference that "along with our American partners, we also have Kazakh partners." Despite everything, Russia is still a reliable guarantor for global energy security. CPC's terminal, which is near the?Russian?Black Sea Port of Novorossiysk was attacked by Ukrainian drones. The company has had to reduce its operations as a result. Peskov accused Ukraine "energy blackmail" for?the strikes. He said that?they were causing Russian and?U.S. Peskov accused Ukraine of "energy blackmail" over?the strikes, which he said?were causing Russian,?U.S. Reporting by Dmitry Antonov. Vladimir Soldatkin wrote the article. Mark Trevelyan, Mark Potter and Mark Trevelyan edited the text.
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Ukraine renews its attacks on Russian energy sites. What has been struck?
In recent weeks, Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian energy installations as peace talks failed to make progress. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, said that Ukraine used long-range attacks on?energy to maintain pressure on Russia following the lifting of international oil sanctions against Moscow in the aftermath of the Iran war. Here is a summary of the attacks. KIRISHI REFINERY The ?Kirishinefteorgsintez ?oil refinery in northwest Russia, one of the largest in the country, halted processing on Thursday following Ukrainian drone attacks that caused fires in some parts of the plant, two industry sources said. SARATOV REFINERY According to sources, the Saratov refinery controlled by Rosneft was attacked by a drone in March and since then, its crude distillation unit is no longer operational. The refinery will process 5.8 million metric tons of oil in 2024, which is 2.2% of the total Russian oil refining. ILSKY REFINERY On February 17, a fire broke out in the Ilsky oil refining plant, located in southern Russia. The cause was drone attacks. According to officials in the region, the fire was completely extinguished on February 18. Exports are the main focus of Ilsky's refinery. It has a?annual capacity of 6.6 millions tons of oil. VOLGOGRAD RIFINERY According to sources, drone attacks caused the Volgograd refinery owned by Lukoil to be completely shut down. Drones targeted, among others, the primary oil-processing unit CDU-1, whose daily capacity of 18,600 tonnes accounts for about 40% of the refinery's overall. The Volgograd refinery will process 13.7 million tonnes of oil in 2024. UKHTA RIFINERY According to officials in the region, a drone attack led to an explosion at the Ukhta Refinery owned by Lukoil on 12 February. Sources claim that the CDU-1 primary oil processing unit caught fire. The unit's capacity is approximately 6,000 tons per a day or one third of the refinery. By 2025, Ukhta Refinery in Northern Russia will process around 3,000,000 tons of oil. AFIPISKY REFINERY According to officials in the region, drone attacks caused a fire at the Afipsky Refinery on January 21, causing it to burn. Exports are the main focus of the refinery. In 2024, it will process 7.2 million tons of crude oil or 144,000 barrels a day. PORTS AND TTANKERS According to calculations based upon market data, at least 40% of Russia's capacity for oil exports was halted this week due to Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed assault on a major pipe and the seizure or tankers. This week, drones have repeatedly attacked the Baltic Sea ports Ust-Luga, and Primorsk. These are the main hubs of Russian oil exports in the region. Three sources confirmed that the Primorsk Port resumed fuel and oil loadings on Friday, but at a lower capacity due to damage caused to its infrastructure. Transneft, the Russian oil pipeline monopoly, has cut crude intake by about 250,000 barrels a day following a drone attack in Ukraine on February 23, which targeted a pumping station serving major oil hubs. On January 13, drones attacked two oil tankers, including one chartered for U.S. oil giant Chevron CVX.N. They were sailing towards a terminal along the Russian coast. Mark Trevelyan (reporting) Barbara Lewis, Sharon Singleton and Mark Trevelyan (editing)
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Fuel costs are increasing, so airlines are reducing their prices and cutting back on their outlook.
The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, which has pushed up jet fuel prices, has shook the aviation industry around the world. Airlines have been forced to increase fares and review financial forecasts. In recent weeks, jet fuel prices have risen from $85-$90 per barrel up to $150-$200 per barrel. This is a major financial blow to an industry that relies on fuel for as much as a quarter its operating costs. Here is an alphabetical list of the ways airlines are responding to this issue: AEGEAN AIRLINES The Greek airline anticipates that the suspension of Middle East flights, and the spike in fuel costs will have a "notable" impact on its first quarter results. AIR FRANCE-KLM The airline group?said that it planned to raise long-haul ticket?prices to address rising fuel costs. Cabin?fares are set to?rise?by 50 euros ($57). AIR NEW ZEALAND On March 10, the airline was among the first to announce a large increase in ticket prices. The airline also suspended its earnings projections for the full year due to volatile fuel markets. Price increases are NZ$10 on domestic flights, NZ$20 for short-haul international flights and NZ$90 for long-haul flights. Further price, schedule and network changes may be made if fuel prices continue to rise. AKASA AIR Akasa Airlines, based in India, announced that it would be introducing fuel surcharges ranging from 199 to 1,300 Indian Rupees ($2 - $14) for domestic and international flights. AMERICAN AIRLINES Fuel prices are on the rise, and American Airlines expects to incur $400 million more in expenses for the first quarter. CATHAY PACIFIC Hong Kong Airlines announced that it will increase fuel surcharges for all routes starting April 1. This is the second hike in two weeks following a hike on March 18. They will also review these charges every two weeks. Last month, the carrier, which reviews fuel charges monthly, maintained them at $72.90 per flight between Hong Kong and Europe, North America, or both. CEBU AIR The Philippines-based carrier?said that the sharp increase in fuel prices is a major concern. It will continue to review pricing and network strategies to minimize the impact. EASYJET EasyJet CEO Kentonjarvis said that European consumers can expect to pay higher prices for tickets towards the end summer when fuel hedges end. FRONTIER AÉRIENS Fuel prices have increased dramatically since the airline issued its forecast for the full year. HONG KONG Airlines The airline announced that it would increase fuel surcharges up to 35% starting March 12. The biggest increases would be on flights between Hong Kong, the Maldives and Bangladesh, and?Nepal where the charges would go from HK$284 to HK$384 (US$49). British Airways' owner IAG stated on March 10, that it does not intend to increase ticket price immediately as it has hedged a large amount of fuel in the short to medium term. INDIGO India's largest?airline announced that it will introduce fuel charges for domestic and international flights from March 14. The charge for flights into the Middle East is 900 rupees and for flights into Europe, 2,300 rupees. Sources say that the company is lobbying for the Indian government's reduction of fuel taxes. PAKISTAN INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS Fuel surcharges are cited as the reason for raising domestic fares up to $20, and international fares up to $100. PHILIPPINE AERLINES The airline stated that it had enough fuel to support its scheduled operations but didn't have a forecast beyond June or May. The company president Richard Nuttall said CNBC that the Philippines may eventually look at measures like rationing fuel purchases, as some countries have already done. QANTAS AIRWAYS On March 26, the Australian airline announced that it would be adding flights to Rome Paris and Singapore. It had previously said it would increase international fares. The airline said that it would be monitoring fuel security and prices, as well as demand. It could also make changes. Scandinavian Airlines announced that it would cancel 1000 flights in April due to high fuel and oil prices. In March, the airline said that it had cancelled "a couple hundred" flights. SAS, which has already raised flight prices, stated that the surge in fuel costs would be a major blow to the aviation sector, even if they tried to absorb them. SPRING AIRLINES Budget Chinese airline announced that it will increase fuel surcharges for domestic flights starting April 5. Details to be announced. THAI AIRWAYS The Thai carrier announced that it would increase fares between 10% and 15% in order to "address the rising fuel costs". TURKISH AIRLINES LUFTHANSA SunExpress, the?joint-venture between Turkish Airlines, Lufthansa and Lufthansa', announced that it would begin imposing a temporary fuel charge of 10 euros per passenger on routes between Turkey, Europe and Africa, starting May 1. The fuel surcharge will be applied to all bookings made after April 1, for departures after May 1. UNITED AIRLINES Scott Kirby, CEO of the U.S. carrier, said that the airline will?cut unprofitable flights in the next two quarters to prepare for oil prices remaining above $100 until 2027. Andrew Nocella, United's Chief Commercial Officer, said that the company was able to increase fares in response to a rapid rise in oil prices and jet fuel costs. VIETJET A potential fuel shortage has led to the Vietnamese budget airline reducing flight frequencies on certain routes. VIETNAM Airline Vietnam's aviation authority announced that the carrier will cancel 23 flights per day on domestic routes from April after it requested government assistance to remove an environmental tax. VIRGIN AUSTRALIA Virgin Australia announced that it would be adjusting its fares in order to reflect the rising cost pressures within the aviation industry, which were being exacerbated significantly by the Middle East situation. GREATER BAY Airlines Greater Bay Airlines, based in Hong Kong, said that it would increase fuel surcharges for most routes starting April 1, due to increased fuel prices related to the Iran War. However, charges on routes to mainland China and Japan will remain unchanged. The carrier has announced that the surcharge on flights between Hong Kong, Philippines and other destinations will be more than doubled.
Sources: Novatek suspends operations in Ust-Luga after drone attack
Three market sources have confirmed that Russian energy company Novatek suspended 'gas condensate export loadings and naphtha processing at its Ust-Luga facility following drone attacks which caused a fire at the facility. Novatek's cuts to naphtha exports will have an impact on Asian markets. They already experienced a feedstock shortage last March when the U.S./Iran conflict disrupted Middle East fuel shipments. These attacks were one of the most intense drone strikes in Russia's western energy corridor. The Baltic ports Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and the surrounding area were repeatedly targeted by drone strikes. Explosions tore through terminal infrastructure and ignited storage tanks, forcing emergency crews to battle huge columns of smoke.
The fire that broke out at Novatek’s Ust-Luga Complex damaged some of the processing units as well as a part of the fuel tanks.
Sources said that the time frame for repairs would be determined after a "full assessment" of the damages.
Novatek did not immediately respond to an inquiry for comment.
Three processing units of the Ust-Luga Complex, each with a 3 million ton capacity, refine stable condensate and produce light and heavy naphthas, jet fuels, ship 'fuel oil, and gasoil.
Data from the company show that in 2025?the complex processed 8 million tons of condensate gas.
(source: Reuters)