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Andy Home: The ROI-Congo pivots to the west under cover of cobalt control

Cobalt ambitions of the Democratic Republic of Congo are becoming more and more apparent.

Export restrictions were used by the world's biggest producer of the strategic metal used in everything from stealth bombers to mobile phones, to "drain" the market and raise prices.

Kinshasa, as it gains more control of its cobalt industry, is also trying to lessen its reliance on Chinese operators, and pivot toward the West, particularly the United States.

The rebalancing is accompanied by new attempts to integrate the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM), a minefield of ethical issues for Western cobalt purchasers, into official sector.

MOVING MARKETS

Congo has restricted cobalt exports from February of last year. A full ban was replaced by a quota-based system in October.

Shipments only started picking up again early this year due to teething problems with the new administrativesystem.

China's import numbers are still very low. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics which collects customs data, the largest buyer of Congolese Cobalt imported only 5,000 metric tonnes between January and April. This is down from nearly 200,000 tons during the same period in 2025.

Stocks accumulated in previous years due to Congolese excess production cushioned the supply shock until recently.

Cobalt prices have been flat so far this season, but at $26.00 a lb they are more than twice as high as before Congo stopped exports in early 2018.

Supply chain tension is increasing.

The price of cobalt hydrxide, which is the form in which the metal was shipped by Congo has continued to rise, and it now trades at a level that is equal or even higher than the metal price.

According to Ying Lu of Project Blue consultancy, this price?inversion is reshaping supply chains as refineries use more metal in order to produce sulphate - the type cobalt that battery manufacturers use.

This may not just be a passing trend. Project Blue says that this shift in pricing "suggests the market is charging a premium for cobalt units originating from the DRC".

Securing Access

As U.S. investments begin to flow into Kinshasa, China's refiners will find it more difficult to secure access to Congo cobalt.

The Congo's mineral wealth, especially cobalt, was the foundation of the?U.S. brokered deal last June with Congo and Rwanda that ended years of hostilities.

Recent announcements indicate that the deal is beginning to work.

Virtus Minerals is a U.S. critical minerals platform that bought privately-owned Chemaf Copper and Cobalt Mines in May. It aims to resume full operations following years of uncertainty.

The Congo's Entreprise Generale du Cobalt has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Trafigura, a trading house in the United States and EVelution for the supply of the latter's new proposed cobalt refinery.

The Lobito Atlantic Railway is another U.S.-backed project that links the Congolese Copper Belt with the Angolan Port of Lobito.

Western operators have a new alternative to the Chinese-backed TAZARA rail, which carries goods to the Tanzanian port Dar es Salaam.

ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANALL 'GOLDSTANDARD'

EGC must ensure that ASM it provides to its Western partners are ethically pure.

Illegal mining in Congo, and often under dangerous conditions, casts a shadow on the market for?cobalt.

Kinshasa tried to integrate its shadow mining industry before, but with limited success.

A new venture between EGC and Mercuria, a trading house, aims to create a "Gold Standard" for responsible ASM mining of cobalt at the Kasulo Mine site.

If Congo is to reduce its dependency on China by opening up new markets in the United States, it must assure Western consumers that they are not purchasing "blood cobalt".

More Power

The events of this year have conspired together to increase Congo's influence over the cobalt markets even further.

Sherritt International’s Canadian refining operation is under serious scrutiny after the latest round of U.S. Sanctions forced the company's joint venture operations in Cuba to be discontinued.

Ambatovy's nickel-cobalt operations are being sold to a new owner after they were destroyed by a cyclone that hit Madagascar in February.

The nickel refineries in Indonesia, another non-Congo cobalt source, are under pressure due to reduced mining quotas, and the difficulty of obtaining?sulphuric acids, which many require for their processing.

Congo is a country that already produces 70% of the world's mine supply.

This power is being used to redefine not only the cobalt markets but also the strategic position of the country in the global race for critical minerals.

Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)