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Andy Home: The ROI-Congo pivots to the west under the cover of cobalt control

The ambitions of the Democratic Republic of Congo in cobalt are?becoming more and more clear.

Export restrictions have been used by the world's biggest producer of strategic metals, which are used in everything from stealth bombers to mobile phones, to reduce excesses and raise prices.

Kinshasa is trying to shift its focus away from Chinese operators and towards the United States, as it gains more control of its cobalt industry.

This rebalancing is accompanied by a renewed effort to integrate the artisanal and smaller-scale mining sector (ASM), a minefield of ethical issues for Western cobalt purchasers, into official sectors.

MOVING MARKETS

Congo has restricted cobalt exports from February of last year. A full ban was replaced by a quota-based system in October.

Shipments only started picking up again early this year due to teething problems with the new administrativesystem.

China's import numbers are still very low. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics which collects customs data, the largest buyer of Congolese Cobalt imported only 5,000 metric tonnes between January and April. This is down from nearly 200,000 tons during the same period in 2025.

The stock surplus built up by previous years' Congolese production has cushioned the supply shock.

Cobalt metal prices have been flat so far this year. However, at $26 per lb they are more than twice as high as before Congo stopped exports in early last year.

Supply chain tensions are increasing.

The price of cobalt hydrxide, the form in which the metal is shipped by Congo has continued to rise, and it now trades at the same level or even higher than the?metal prices this year.

According to Ying Lu of Project Blue consultancy, this price inversion is reshaping supply chains as refineries use more metal to make sulphate - the type cobalt that battery manufacturers use.

This may not just be a temporary glitch. Project Blue says that this shift in pricing suggests the market is charging a premium for cobalt units originating from the DRC.

Securing Access

As U.S. investments increase in Kinshasa, China's refiners will find it more difficult to secure access to Congo cobalt.

The Congo's mineral wealth, especially cobalt, was the foundation of the U.S.-brokered agreement with Congo and Rwanda last June to end years' hostilities.

Recent announcements indicate that the deal is beginning to work.

Virtus Minerals - which describes itself as an U.S. critical minerals platform - bought the privately held Chemaf cobalt and copper mines in may and hopes to resume full operations following years of uncertainty.

The Congo's Entreprise Generale du Cobalt has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Trafigura, a trading house in the United States and EVelution for the supply of the latter's new proposed cobalt refinery.

The Lobito Atlantic Railway is another U.S.-backed project that links the Congolese Copper Belt with the Angolan Port of Lobito.

Western operators now have a viable alternative to the Chinese-backed TAZARA rail, which carries goods to the Tanzanian port at Dar es Salaam.

ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANALL 'GOLDSTANDARD'

EGC must ensure that ASM it provides to its Western partners are ethically pure.

Illegal mining in Congo and the cobalt markets has been a problem for many years.

Kinshasa tried to integrate its shadow mining industry before, but with limited success.

A new venture between the EGC and Mercuria, a trading house, aims to "establish" a "Gold Standard", for responsible ASM mining at the Kasulo site.

If Congo is to reduce its dependency on China by opening up new markets in the United States, it must assure Western consumers that they are not purchasing "blood cobalt".

More Power

This year, events have conspired in a way that will increase Congo's influence on the cobalt markets.

Sherritt International’s Canadian refining operation is under serious scrutiny after the latest round of U.S. Sanctions forced the company's joint venture operations in Cuba to be discontinued.

Ambatovy's nickel-cobalt operations are being sold to a new owner after a cyclone knocked them out in February.

The nickel refineries in Indonesia, another non-Congo cobalt source, are under pressure due to reduced mining quotas, and problems with sourcing the sulphuric acids they need.

The Congo, which is already responsible for 70% of the global mining supply.

This power is being used to redefine the cobalt markets and the strategic position of the country in the global race for critical minerals.

Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)