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As investor demand cools, yields rise as a result of hyperscaler debt binge

As investors become more selective, major U.S. tech companies are borrowing heavily to fund their artificial intelligence builds. The yields on these loans have been steadily increasing.

According to a LSEG analysis, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta Platforms issued approximately $194 billion of bonds between 2026 and July 7. This is up 79% compared to roughly $108 billion of bonds from 2025.

Goldman Sachs expects the bond issuance of five hyperscalers including Microsoft Corporation to reach approximately $250 billion this year, and $400 billion by 2027.

These investment-grade companies have seen their borrowing spreads increase over the risk-free rate for all major maturity buckets.

In 2025, the spread between 2- and 4-year bonds for Amazon, Alphabet (Alphabet), Meta, and Oracle rose from 30 to 40 basis point. The median spread for 5- to 7 year debt rose from 50 basis to 60 basis, and the median spread for bonds maturing more than 20 years increased from 108.5 to 118 basis.

The performance of the secondary market has also declined. An analysis of LSEG's data revealed that 78 out of 91?hyperscaler bond issued in 2026, with comparable pricing data, were trading higher yields at the end of July than they did at issuance. The median increase was approximately 22 basis points.

Colby Stilson is the head of fixed income for Brown Advisory.

I don't think that this type of supply will disappear in the near term. Technically, this puts pressure on spreads."

While investor demand is still high in absolute terms, it has decreased as the supply has increased.

Apollo Global Management reported that cover ratios, which are a measure for investor orders in relation to the amount of hyperscaler bonds sold, have fallen from almost five times in Feburary to less than two times in July.

A cover ratio three times means that investors ordered three dollars worth of bonds per dollar sold. Apollo said that the drop in demand suggests that borrowers will have to increase their spreads for future deals.

Recent Amazon sales show the shift. AlphaSense's research reports showed that its March U.S. dollar bond sale was 3.4 times more than its July offering.

Stilson stated that "we're already experiencing fatigue in the credit markets as they support this massive debt issue."

Sage Advisory reported that Amazon's $25 billion bond sale pushed a 30-year Amazon Bond issued earlier this year?about 20 basis points wide. The report estimated that the combined U.S. dollar debt footprint of hyperscalers had more than doubled to $360 billion since September.

Sage Advisory stated that "each successive jumbo transaction has pushed spreads further before they finally stabilize and experience modest rallying."

The data on new-issue concessions in the LSEG dataset 'pointed the same way. A new-issue concession refers to the additional yield that a borrower provides investors in order to price a bond sale relative to existing debt.

The latest reading, based on a transaction with Amazon, shows that the median concession level rose from 2.25 basis point in 2025 to 12 basis points by 2026.

Goldman expects hyperscaler capital expenses to reach $750 billion by?2026. Operating cash flows are projected to be around $778 billion. Debt issuance is expected to equal about a third of capital expenditure this year, and about 35% of capital expenditure in 2027.

Goldman said that market saturation and issuer consolidation were likely to become more restrictive as issuance accelerates. Meanwhile, falling cover ratios are wider spreads indicate investors already demand greater compensation for the supply.

(source: Reuters)