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Shipping companies pull out of Hong Kong to avoid US-China risks

Some shipping companies move their operations discreetly out of Hong Kong, and remove vessels from its registry. Some shipping companies are making contingency planning to do this.

Six shipping executives have said that these low-profile actions are motivated by a fear that their vessels could be seized by Chinese authorities, or face U.S. sanction in the event of a clash between Beijing and Washington. The people said that the growing U.S. scrutiny over the importance of China’s commercial fleet to a potential military conflict, such as one over Taiwan, and Beijing's emphasis of Hong Kong's role in serving Chinese interests is causing concern in the shipping industry. Last month, the U.S. Trade Representative proposed imposing steep U.S. fees on Chinese shipping firms and other companies that operate Chinese-built ships to counter China's "targeted dominant" in shipbuilding and maritime logistic. Washington warned American companies in September about the growing risks associated with operating in Hong Kong. The U.S. has already imposed sanctions on officials who are involved in a crackdown.

Hong Kong has been the hub of shipowners for over a century, as well as brokers, financiers underwriters, and lawyers who support them. Official data shows that its maritime and port industries accounted for 4,2% of the GDP in 2022.

VesselsValue - a subsidiary company of Veson Nautical, a maritime data group - reports that the city's flag was flown on eight out of ten ships in the world.

Interviews with two dozen people familiar with Hong Kong including shipping executives and lawyers revealed a growing concern about the possibility that commercial maritime operations in Hong Kong could be caught up by forces outside their control if a U.S. - China military conflict occurs.

Many pointed out China's increased focus on national security goals, trade frictions, and Hong Kong's leader's broad powers to take control of shipping if necessary, as he is accountable to Beijing.

One executive who, like many others, was allowed to remain anonymous to discuss this sensitive subject said: "We do not want to be in the position where China is knocking on our door, requesting our ships, while the U.S. targets us from the other side."

Previously, the concerns of shipowners as well as their efforts to limit exposure to Hong Kong were not reported. In recent years the perception of risk has increased, in line with the tightening security environment in the Chinese-ruled area and the tensions between two of the largest economies in the world.

Turning Tide

To comply with safety and environment rules, commercial ships must be registered or flagged with a specific country or jurisdiction.

VesselsValue, an independent research firm, found that despite the influx of Chinese ships on Hong Kong's register, the number oceangoing vessels registered in the city dropped by more than 8% in January, from 2,580 in January 2004. Government data show a similar drop.

In 2023 and 2024 74 ships, mostly dry-bulk carriers, were re-flagged for Singapore and Marshall Islands. These vessels transport commodities like coal, iron ore, and grain. VesselsValue reports that 15 tankers and 7 container ships left Hong Kong's registry to fly these flags.

Hong Kong's ship registry has seen a dramatic decline in the last two years. Official data shows that it grew by 400% over the past 20 years.

Hong Kong's Government responded to questions by saying that it is normal for shipping companies, given the changing geopolitical, trade and economic circumstances, to review their operations. It is also normal for the numbers of ships registered to fluctuate over the short-term.

A spokesperson stated that Hong Kong will "continue to excel" as an international shipping center, highlighting a variety of incentives, such as profits tax breaks and environmental subsidies, for shipowners.

The spokesperson stated that neither the laws governing registry nor the emergency provisions empower Hong Kong's leader in commandeering ships to serve as part of a Chinese merchant navy.

When asked to comment on the concerns of industry players about how emergency powers from colonial times might be used during a conflict between the U.S. and China, the spokesperson declined. The provisions give the leader of the city "any regulation whatsoever", which includes taking control over vessels and property.

China's commerce and defence ministries did not respond to questions regarding the role of the merchant fleet in Beijing’s warfighting plan, the possible involvement of Hong Kong flagged vessels, or the concerns of commercial shipowners.

The U.S. Treasury declined to comment on potential sanctions, concerns of shipping executives, or the role played by Hong Kong-registered ships in a Chinese commercial fleet.

Lawyers and executives agree that ships can be reflagged in a variety of ways, including through the sale, chartering or redeployment on different routes.

Basil Karatzas of Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co in the U.S. said that Singapore was becoming the preferred domicile for businesses with less exposure to Chinese shipping or cargo trade. It offered many efficiencies including its legal system but also a lower risk than Hong Kong.

Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority stated that decisions regarding domiciles and flags were based on business considerations. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore said it had not noticed any "significant changes" in the number Hong Kong shipping companies moving operations or reflagging vessels to Singapore.

MERCHANT FLEEET

Executives and lawyers agree that Hong Kong's registry for shipping is highly regarded by the industry because of its high safety and regulatory standards. This allows its ships to easily pass through foreign ports. Many of China's international state-owned vessels now fly Hong Kong's banner.

According to PLA military studies and four security analysts, in a conflict these tankers and bulk carriers would be the backbone of the merchant fleet that supplies China's oil and food needs.

The U.S., on the other hand, has a very small shipbuilding industry. It also has far fewer vessels under its flag. Three analysts say that while China's growing state-owned fleet would be a target of the U.S. during a military conflict, Beijing would need other vessels in order to supply its needs, given its reliance on international shipping lanes and vast needs.

Donald Trump has been keeping a close eye on strategic maritime operations. Trump said in his January inauguration address that he would "take back" control of the Panama Canal from China. Trump did not provide specifics but his remarks focused on two Panama port operated by a Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison Holdings subsidiary. The group did not respond to any questions regarding Trump's remarks, but agreed to sell the majority of the subsidiary's shares to a consortium led by BlackRock this week, giving U.S. interest control over the port. Trump said to Congress that his administration would create a shipbuilding office in the White House, and provide new tax incentives.

In a study conducted by the U.S. Congress in November 2023, it was stated that "cargo vessels typically transport 90% of military equipment required in overseas conflicts". The report noted that Chinese shipyards ordered 1,794 ocean-going large ships in 2022 compared to five in the U.S.

Merchant vessels played a crucial role in Britain's 1982 long-range operation to retake Argentina's Falkland Islands. Declassified CIA files show that UK-flagged ships operated out of Hong Kong, many of which were owned or controlled by Chinese firms, supplied communist Hanoi in the Vietnam War.

In 2013, President Xi Jinping outlined the need for a Chinese merchant fleet that would help to build China's maritime strength in a Politburo session.

In the past decade, Chinese military and government documents and studies have emphasized the dual-use value of China’s merchant ships.

According to state media, regulations enacted in 2014 required Chinese builders to build five types of commercial ships, including tankers and container ships, to be able to serve military requirements.

Since then, COSCO has seen a significant increase in its line.

Documents from COSCO show that China places political commissars, officers who make sure Communist Party goals are served, on nominally civil ships.

The U.S. banned COSCO subsidiaries in January for what they said were links with the Chinese military.

COSCO has not responded to any questions regarding its deployment of commissars, U.S. restrictions, or what role COSCO's ships -- including those with Hong Kong flags -- might play in wartime.

'REALLY DE-RISKED'

Hong Kong is still an important shipowners' base, despite geopolitical issues. Some shipowners are quietly hedging.

Taylor Maritime (London-listed) a company that was founded in Hong Kong, in 2014, has a much smaller presence in Hong Kong now after several strategic moves in the last few years.

It has been flagging its ships in Singapore and the Marshall Islands since 2021. The company has offices in London, Guernsey and Singapore.

A person with knowledge of the matter said that the firm "really reduced the risk of Hong Kong". This was due to investors' fears of a Chinese invasion in Taiwan and the Communist Party taking control of Hong Kong.

Taylor Maritime's spokesperson stated that the company initially moved its Asia-based teams from Hong Kong to Singapore to be closer to their clients.

Taylor Maritime, after acquiring Grindrod, a shipping company with an Asia office in Singapore and expanding its operations there, relocated certain functions from Hong Kong to Singapore, where it became the primary Asia hub.

Two people with knowledge of the situation said that Pacific Basin Shipping, a Hong Kong listed company, has always flagged its 110 bulk carrier fleet in Hong Kong. However, it is now preparing contingency plans for them to be registered elsewhere while it assesses possible risks.

Pacific Basin's spokesperson stated that the company constantly evaluated geopolitical risk but its fleet still flew the Hong Kong flag "which, at least for the moment, outweighs the challenges".

The spokesperson stated that "Being located in Hong Kong places us near China's 40% share of the global dry bulk export/import activity as well as close to Asia's strong industrial and economic growth regions."

Angad Banga said that shipping firms adjust contingency plans based upon risk assessments, but he has not heard of concerns regarding the commandeering vessels.

Banga said that although some organizations may be re-evaluating their operational strategies, they do not see a widespread exodus from Hong Kong or a loss of confidence. The city, he added, remained attractive to maritime commerce.

Some industry figures have described a general unease in Hong Kong, which has affected their planning.

Three lawyers have said that, until recently, contracts for the increasing number of ships constructed in China that are financed by Chinese banks stipulated that the ship must fly the Hong Kong Flag.

Lawyers said that in the past two years some companies have added a disclaimer to their contracts, stating that they are willing to consider other flags as an alternative. Could not independently verify these changes. Beijing officials have stressed that Hong Kong is important in achieving national security goals. They also referred to China's modernisation of its military and refusal to abandon the use of force against Taiwan.

Three executives and lawyers said that the sweeping security laws, which were first implemented in Hong Kong in July 2021 and then strengthened in March 2020, have increased dangers.

Lawyers said that any attempt by Hong Kong’s leader to commandeer ships in an emergency could prove difficult, since locally registered vessels often travel routes far away from Hong Kong. They said that such powers, which have been in place for a long time, now needed to be seen through the lens of national security.

One lawyer stated that some shipowners would not object to a request from the government to hand over their vessels. This could be due to patriotism, or because they might profit by a crisis.

Another veteran lawyer said that it is "better to avoid being in a situation where you could be asked".

It was not an issue a few short years ago. The national security map has been redrawn. (Reporting and editing by David Crawshaw; Additional reporting by Andrea Shalal, Idrees, and Idrees in Washington and Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong;

(source: Reuters)