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Vietnam prepares for flight reductions from April, after China and Thailand ban jet-fuel exports
Vietnam's authorities warned that the aviation industry should prepare for possible flight reductions in April, after China and Thailand stopped exports of jet-fuel due to the?Iran war. This increased the likelihood of shortages. Vietnam imports 60% of its jet-fuel needs from China and Thailand. Documents from the aviation regulator, and importers, seen by. In a document sent on March 9, the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam warned that there was a risk of jet fuel shortages in the months to come for Vietnamese airlines. The report said that airlines should review their plans and, in particular, domestic routes. It also instructed airport operators to provide additional parking spaces for Vietnamese carriers, "in the event they are forced to reduce operations due to a lack of aviation fuel." The document also showed that Singapore has reduced its supplies to Vietnam. Petrolimex, a major importer, and Skypec, a major supplier, both viewed separate documents by. Both said they could only guarantee jet-fuel supplies for March. They warned that April contracts might not be met by suppliers. Skypec asked the regulator to limit air travel to only essential domestic routes, if the conflict continues. All documents were released after China asked its refiners to refuse new exports in the early part of this month. This was before a ban on refined fuels exports that began March 11. Thailand banned the export of fuel oil to all countries, except Myanmar and Laos, on March 6. The regulator, ministry and two importers did not respond to comments. Vietnam Airlines, VietJet and other major airlines in Vietnam declined to comment. DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS MADE According to Chinese customs data, Vietnam was the third largest buyer of aviation fuel from China in last year's figures after Australia and Japan. The Southeast Asian nation has raised the issue both with China, its principal supplier, as well as Thailand. According to a Vietnamese news portal, Le Hoai Trung, the Foreign Minister, asked his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, for close coordination, "to ensure energy safety," during a long-planned meeting in Hanoi. The Chinese summary of the meeting did not mention energy security. State media reported that Pham Minh Chinh, the Prime Minister of Vietnam, asked Thailand on Friday to assist in addressing the shortage at a meeting he had with the Thai Ambassador in Vietnam. Requests for comment from the foreign ministers of Vietnam, China and Thailand were not immediately responded to. In its document, the Vietnam Aviation Authority noted that "in this context it is hard to find new suppliers." The report also said that Vietnam's two refineries were under pressure to expand their production of other oil-based products, which made it difficult for them increase their jet fuel output. The report also noted that even if fuel supply stabilizes, the rising prices of fuel will disrupt the industry. According to a March document sent to the aviation regulator, local?airline Sun PhuQuoc Airways intends to "adjust" flight schedules in the coming months because of the volatility in?fuel prices. The company has not responded to a comment request. The documents show that Petrolimex, Skypec and other companies have also indicated the increase in jet fuel prices and the consequent 'limitation of credit lines. They have urged the banks to provide more flexible financing till market conditions normalise. LSEG data show that front-month jet-fuel paper swaps are currently trading in Singapore at $157 a barrel, which is more than 1.5 times the price of pre-conflict levels.
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Dubai Media Office reports that a fire breaks out near Dubai International Airport following a drone attack.
The 'Dubai Media Office' said on Monday that authorities are?dealing?with a??fire? resulting??? from a drone attack near the Dubai International Airport. They added that there were no reported injuries. Dubai authorities stated that the drone attack had hit a fuel tank, and civil defence teams are working to control the fire. Gulf Arab states have been subjected to more than 2,000'missile and drone attacks' since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began on February 28. These include U.S. military bases and diplomatic missions, but also vital Gulf oil infrastructure and ports, airports and hotels, as well as residential and office buildings. The United Arab Emirates - which normalised its relations with Iran's arch enemy Israel in 2020 - has been the most affected by?the attacks. All Gulf Arab countries have been affected and have condemned Iran.
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Sources: China relaxes BHP iron-ore ban for a week
Sources said on Friday that China will ease the ban on BHP's Jimblebar Fines, an iron-ore product, until next week. This comes only one day after Beijing tightened restrictions on its third largest supplier. China Mineral Resources Group (the state-run iron ore purchaser) told domestic steelmills they could take "delivery of Jimblebar fins already at port for around a week," said three sources who were familiar with the matter, but on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the issue. Steelmakers and traders are excluded from the exception. CMRG?barred? steelmakers and traders? from purchasing Jimblebar?fines in September and has progressively increased its restrictions. Most recently, this week, it is negotiating the terms of BHP’s 2026 supply agreement. Iron ore prices reached a two-month high on Friday as traders feared further bans could limit the iron ore supply at ports. The temporary reprieve highlights CMRG's?challenge? in lowering prices, when its primary tool is to remove supply from the market. One of the sources said that "the move is to reinin iron ore price rally." CMRG and BHPB did not respond immediately to requests for comments outside of normal working hours. Louise Heavens, News (reporting)
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Honda's $15,7 billion writedown on EVs is painful but China problems loom in the future
Honda's $15 billion write-down of its electric vehicles business is more than just a painful reversal in its U.S. strategy. It also shows that it will face even greater challenges from China where it faces an ever-widening technology gap. The second largest automaker in Japan announced on Thursday that it will restructure its electric vehicle business, primarily in the U.S., and write off some Chinese operations. This could cost an estimated?2.5 trillion dollars. It also said that it would report its first loss as a publicly listed company in nearly 70 years. It announced that it would cancel the three battery-powered models planned for the U.S. where demand for electric vehicles has plummeted since President Donald Trump cut subsidies. Honda sold 84,000 battery-powered vehicles last year, just 2.5% of its 3.4 million global vehicle sales. According to Christopher Richter, an automotive analyst at CLSA, the scale of the write-down reflects Honda's massive investments in research and production capacity, as it sought to sell more EVs. He said that the automaker should have acted faster to halt this investment when Trump returned to power. He said, "They took far too long to think about this." "They cancelled these projects almost on the eve before they were released." Honda unveiled its first two concept models of the "Honda 0 Series" in Las Vegas, including the Saloon Sedan, in January 2024. It had planned to launch the first vehicle in the series this year in North America. These plans have now been scrapped. The company has cancelled the three models which were to be produced in the U.S. The company will experience cash outflows up to 1.7 trillion Japanese yen as part of the financial hit. This is largely because of the costs of compensating its suppliers. Seiji Sugiura is a senior analyst with Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory (the research arm of Tokai Tokyo Securities) and he wrote to clients that he was "shocked by the scale" of this writedown. This decision was made at a time when it was very difficult, before mass production and after significant budgets were already committed. It was an extremely tough call. Honda is now pivoting to hybrids in America?and will be looking to strengthen its lineup and cost-competitiveness in India where it believes it could expand. CHINA'S PERFORMANCE SIGNS DEEPER EV TRUUBLES Honda may be putting behind them the worst, but fixing their China business could prove to be a greater challenge. The automaker said it was unable to compete with the newer Chinese companies, primarily because of their shorter development cycles, and?their strengths in software-driven cars, including advanced driver assistance systems. Honda said that in a competitive environment that was so difficult, it had been unable to produce products that were more cost-effective than those of the newer EV manufacturers. This resulted in a decrease in competitiveness. Vincent Sun, senior analyst at Morningstar said that there is uncertainty regarding Honda's ability to meet the technology challenge in the long-term. He said, "The move raises concerns about Honda's long-term technological competitiveness." Honda launched several battery-powered vehicles in China, the largest auto market in the world, but only sold 17,000 of them last year. This is just 2.5% of the 677,000 cars it sold there and just a fifth of the global total of electric vehicles. Analysts said that Sony Honda Mobility - the joint venture between Honda and Sony Group to develop the Afeela sedan - could also pose a risk. Honda announced on Thursday that the direction of its joint venture is being discussed but no decision has been made.
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US airline CEOs call on Congress to resolve the standoff and pay airport security personnel
Chief executive officers from major U.S. Airlines urged Congress to act quickly on Sunday to end the?29-day partial shutdown of the government that has forced 50,000 airport?security?officers to work without being paid, warning this could further disrupt U.S. airline travel. Travel at major airports has been disrupted by the absence of Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers in the past week. This is alarming as spring break travel continues. In an open letter sent to Congress, the CEOs of American Airlines and United Airlines, as well as those from Southwest Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Alaska Air, Delta Air Lines and other airlines, wrote that "too many travelers have to wait in painfully long lines at checkpoints." First, the leaders must immediately reach an agreement on funding for Homeland Security. They added that they needed to take action so the problem would never happen again. A 43-day shutdown of the government in fall 2017 caused widespread flight disruptions. The FAA then ordered 10% flight cuts at major airports. "Once again, air travel is the political ball amid another government shut down," wrote the CEOs. The group of airline executives, which includes senior executives from cargo carriers such as FedEx, UPS, and Atlas Air, called for legislation that would ensure critical government aviation staff are paid during future shutdowns. Both parties of the Senate failed to reach an agreement on funding the TSA last Thursday, despite the fact that the TSA reported last week the resignation of more than 300 officers since the shutdown began. Homeland Security Department funding expired on February 13, after Congress failed in its efforts to reach an agreement on immigration enforcement reforms requested by Democrats. "We're going to make it through this." Sean Duffy, U.S. Transport Secretary, said on Fox News Channel "Sunday Morning Futures" that he believes Democrats will come to their senses. Duffy hopes that Democrats will not wait for Americans to be hurt or killed before putting your security before those who have entered the country illegally. The airlines are anticipating a record spring travel period. 171 million passengers will fly during this period, an increase of 4% over the same two-month period in last year. Some airports, like Houston Hobby, New Orleans, and Newark, reported security lines that exceeded two hours last week as TSA absences increased. On Saturday, Newark announced it was experiencing longer than normal delays. The CEOs wrote: "Americans in your districts and home states are tired of the long lines, travel delays and cancellations that result from a'shutdown after shutdown. Airports are closing security checkpoints, and raising money to pay TSA employees for food and other necessities while they work without pay. Reporting by David Shepardson, Additional reporting in New York by Gertrude Chavez Dreyfuss; Editing and Jamie Freed by Diane Craft and Jamie Freed
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Iraq claims Kurdish authorities refuse to allow it to send oil through their pipeline
The Iraqi 'oil ministry' said that the Kurdistan Regional Government?refused it to use a pipeline for an alternative route for crude shipments disrupted by?the Iran _conflict. It accused authorities in Kurdistan of placing irrelevant conditions. Senior Kurdish officials told authorities that they would welcome the Iraqi government using the pipeline. However, Baghdad must first lift its "dollar embargo", which he called on the region. "We want to make a deal." "We want to help Iraq, and bring relief? to the markets. But this embargo has got to end first," said the official. Sources told The Daily Mail on 8 March that oil production in Iraq's southern oilfields has fallen 70%, to just 1.3 million barrels per day, as the Iran conflict has effectively closed off the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq's Oil Ministry sent a letter to the Kurdistan Regional Government in early March asking for permission to pump 100,000 barrels of crude oil per day from the Kirkuk oilfields to Turkey's Ceyhan Energy Hub through the Kurdistan Pipeline Network, according to two oil officials last week. The Kurdish official stated that they were pressing to end what he said was a ban on the region’s banks being able to access dollars for importing goods through its borders and airports. Kurdish officials claim that tensions have increased with Baghdad after the federal government implemented a new electronic system to monitor imports and revenue. The KRG views this as a move undermining their autonomy and control over trade. Iraq's Oil Ministry said that the?Kurdistan Regional Government’s Ministry of Natural Resources had "set up a number conditions unrelated to crude oil exports." Reporting by Muhammad Al Gebaly; Editing by Andrew Heavens
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After a terminal attack, an Indian vessel leaves Fujairah in the UAE
India's Government said that an Indian flagged vessel, loaded with 80.800 metric tonnes of Murban oil from the United Arab Emirates, left Fujairah on Sunday. This was a day after sources reported that'some loading operations were suspended' at the UAE port. Sources said that oil loading operations in the UAE's Fujairah, a major hub for bunkering and crude export, have resumed following a Saturday drone attack and fire. However, it is unclear whether the operations are back to normal. India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas stated that the vessel, Jag Laadki was loading oil at Single Point Mooring when Fujairah Terminal was attacked. The statement stated that the vessel and all Indians on board were safe. Fujairah is outside the Strait of Hormuz and the "outlet" for UAE Murban crude oil. This volume is equal to 1% of global demand. Since the United States, Israel and other countries began a bombing on Iran in February, Tehran has stopped traffic through the Strait. The strait runs past its coast. Around 20% of the world's oil and seaborne natural gas are supplied through it. A spokesperson for the Indian foreign ministry said that India has sought safe passage to 22 of its vessels, which are stranded in the Strait of Hormuz west of Iran. This comes after Iran granted a few Indian ships a rare exception to their blockade. Two Indian flagged LPG carriers carrying 92,712 tons of LPG each, Shivalik Nanda De, and headed to India, both crossed the Strait of Hormuz Saturday. The ships are expected to arrive in Mundra, India on March 16, and Kandla, India on March 17. (Reporting and editing by Aide Lewis in Mumbai, Vibhuti sharma)
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US airline CEOs call on Congress to resolve the standoff and pay airport security personnel
The CEOs from major U.S. Airlines urged Congress to act quickly on Sunday to end the 29-day partial shutdown of the government that has forced 50,000 security officers at airports to work without being paid, warning it could disrupt U.S. air travel. Travel disruptions at major airports due to the absence of Transportation Security Administration? officers have been occurring for the past week. This is alarming, as spring break travel continues. In an open letter addressed to Congress, the CEOs of American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, JetBlue Airlines, Alaska Air, and other airlines wrote: "Too many travellers are waiting in extremely long and painfully slow lines at checkpoints." First, they should come together to agree on funding the Department of Homeland Security. They added that they needed to take action so this problem would never happen again. A 43-day shutdown of the government caused widespread flight disruptions last fall. The FAA then ordered a 10% cut in flights at major airports. "Once more, air travel is the political football amid another government shut down," wrote CEOs. The group of airline executives, which includes senior executives from FedEx, UPS, and Atlas Air, called for legislation that would ensure critical government aviation staff are paid during future shutdowns. Both parties of senators failed to succeed in their competing attempts on Thursday to fund the TSA. The TSA reported last week that over 300 officers had quit since the shutdown started. Homeland Security Department funding expired on February 13, after Congress failed in its efforts to reach an agreement on the immigration enforcement reforms that Democrats demanded. The airlines are anticipating a record spring travel period. 171 million passengers will fly during this period, an increase of 4% over the same period last year. Some airports, like Houston Hobby,?New Orleans, and Newark, reported that security lines were longer than two hours last week as TSA absences increased. On Saturday, Newark also said it experienced higher-than-normal delay. The CEOs wrote: "Americans in your districts and states are tired of the?long queues at airports?, travel delays?and flight cancellations? caused by shutdowns after shutdowns? Some airports have closed security checkpoints, while others are raising money to pay TSA workers for food and other necessities. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; David Shepardson)
Exclusive: Canada's Trans Mountain Pipeline lowers its forecasts of the amount of oil that it will ship
Documents filed by Trans Mountain Oil Pipeline's operator reveal that the company has revised its forecasts of how much oil will flow through the system in the next three-year period, due to the fact that the pipeline is being used less than anticipated.
Trans Mountain's lower forecasts filed with Canada Energy Regulator by Trans Mountain last month were not previously reported. Analysts said that the lower forecasts show oil companies' unwillingness to pay the higher tolls Trans Mountain, owned by the government, has charged customers to transport oil via the newly expanded pipeline.
The pipeline is not using 20% of its capacity, reserved for spot shipments, because the shipping costs are much higher than those on the Enbridge Mainline, North America's largest crude pipeline, which transports oil from Western Canada to Eastern Canada and U.S. Midwest markets.
These lower estimates raise doubts about the Trans Mountain Pipeline's ability generate revenue and attract private sector buyers. Ottawa has stated that it will eventually sell the pipeline.
The lower expected usage is also a sign of the difficulty in diversifying Canadian oil imports from the U.S. which purchases 90% of Canadian crude. Trans Mountain is Canada’s only east-west operating pipeline, and its only outlet for Asia and markets outside the U.S. Analysts and Trans Mountain themselves have stated that business could quickly improve if U.S. president Donald Trump slaps a tariff on Canadian oil.
In May 2024, the expanded pipeline of 890,000 barrels per day (bpd), which runs from Alberta up to Canada's Pacific Coast coast, will begin service. Trans Mountain predicted that the pipeline would be used 96% of the time in 2025, which is its first year of operation, and this was as recent as November.
The latest documents don't show the pickup the pipeline operator anticipated. Trans Mountain shipped only 18,500 barrels per day (bpd) of spot cargoes in its first eight-month period, as opposed to the forecast 30,600. Total utilization for 2024 was 77%, far below the forecasted 83%.
According to the new forecasts, pipelines will be 84% full by this year, 88% in 2026, and 92% in 2027. It is now expected that the pipeline will not reach 96% utilization before 2028.
Trans Mountain's spokesperson told an email sent to Tuesday that spot shipments are dependent on factors such as Canadian crude production, differentials in crude oil prices at global hub markets, and rates for marine freight.
Analysts pointed to massive budget overruns in construction and the fact that Trans Mountain raised its tolls for customers last spring. The total construction cost was C$34 billion. This is nearly five times the 2017 estimate.
Trans Mountain will bear approximately 70% of the cost overruns, but the remaining third - more than $9 billion - is considered to be "uncapped costs", which increases tolls according to a formula that was agreed upon by shippers and approved more than 10 years ago by the Canada Energy Regulator.
Trans Mountain estimated that contracted shippers would pay more than twice as much in 2017. Spot shippers are charged even higher toll rates.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Cenovus Energy, two of the largest contracted shippers, have resisted. This year, a regulatory hearing will be held to determine if the toll increases are fair.
'PROBLEM with Pipelines'
Trans Mountain's main competitor, Enbridge Mainline, which transports crude oil to the U.S. Midwest, and eastern Canada offers 100% spot-capacity. The tolls on this line are about half of Trans Mountain's.
In an email sent on Tuesday, Enbridge's spokesperson stated that the demand for space along the Mainline from shippers has been greater than the supply "for the majority of months" since Trans Mountain opened.
Rory Johnston is an energy analyst who founded the Commodity Context Newsletter. He said that Trans Mountain's revised estimates show that shipping via the pipeline has become "too costly" for certain oil producers.
Johnston stated that "this is the fundamental issue with pipelines and why it is so hard to get private actors into this space any more."
Richard Masson is a former CEO of Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission and executive fellow at University of Calgary School of Public Policy.
Uncertainty remained about whether oil would be included as part of President Donald Trump’s announcements on tariffs, expected to take place Wednesday.
Masson stated that Trans Mountain volumes could change at a moment's notice if conditions in the U.S. change.
Trans Mountain has also reduced its revenue forecasts for the next three year as a result. Trans Mountain's revenue forecasts for 2025 have been reduced from an earlier estimate of $3.0 Billion to $2.7 Billion, $2.9 Billion from an estimate of $3.1Billion for 2026 and $3.0Billion for 2027. (Reporting and editing by Caroline Stauffer, David Gregorio, and Amanda Stephenson)
(source: Reuters)