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Prices of oil are set to fall for the second consecutive week due to US-China trade conflict

The oil prices fell for the second consecutive week on Friday, amid investor concerns about a recession caused by the growing trade war between China and the United States.

Brent crude futures fell 25 cents or 0.39% on the day to $63.08 per barrel at 1312 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude dropped 30 cents or 0.50% to $59.77.

Brent and WTI will both decline by 3.8% and 3.5% respectively this week, after losing about 11% each last week. Brent fell below $60 per barrel this week, its lowest level since February 2021.

Analyst Giovanni Staunovo of UBS said that "China's retaliation, coupled with increased U.S. Tariffs, has weighed on the market sentiment, and driven oil prices down."

China announced Friday that, starting Saturday, it will increase its tariffs on U.S. products from 84% to 125%, an increase from the previous announcement of 84%. This follows a Thursday tariff hike by U.S. president Donald Trump, who raised them from 145% to 150%.

Trump paused the heavy tariffs this week against dozens of trading partners. But a dispute between two of the largest economies in world is likely to disrupt trade routes and reduce global trade, which will impact global economic growth.

Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said that even though the tariffs on China were delayed by 90-days, the damage to the market had already been done. Prices are now struggling to recover stability.

BMI analysts expect prices to remain under pressure, as investors evaluate ongoing trade negotiations, and the rising tensions between Washington, D.C., and Beijing.

Energy Information Administration of the United States lowered their global economic growth predictions on Thursday and warned that tariffs may have a significant impact on oil prices. It lowered its U.S. oil demand and global oil consumption forecasts for both this year and next.

A poll shows that China's economic growth in 2025 is likely to be lower than last year, due to the U.S.'s tariffs, which are increasing pressure on China, the world's largest oil importer.

Director of the United Nations trade agency, said that the impact of tariffs on developing countries could be "catastrophic".

ANZ Bank analysts predict oil consumption will fall by 1% if the global economy growth falls below 3%. Senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said.

Varga, of PVM, said that oil prices fell on Thursday, as traders focused primarily on tariffs and largely avoided the new U.S. sanctions against Iran.

On Thursday, the U.S. placed sanctions on a network of Iranian oil traders that included a crude oil storage facility in China.

Iran's foreign ministry has said that the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Saturday in Oman will get "a real chance" from Iran. Reporting by Robert Harvey, Sudarshan Varadhan, Arunima Kumra, Kirby Donovan, David Goodman. Editing by David Goodman.

(source: Reuters)