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Grid monitor: Japan could face a power shortage in 2050

In a long-term projection, Japan's power transmission operators warned that the country could be facing a major power shortage in 2050 due to a surge in demand and if aging thermal plants and older nuclear power plants were not replaced.

Japan has been predicting a decline in electricity demand for years due to the shrinking population. However, it recently updated this forecast to include new demand from chip factories and data centres.

According to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators' scenarios, Japan's electric demand will rise by 8-42% in 2050 compared to 2019 before the COVID outbreak.

The scenario that highlights the 89-gigawatt shortage if the demand reaches 1,25 terawatt hours, the upper limit of its demand forecast in 2050, is one of the scenarios.

This is the first longer-term forecast that has been produced by this group.

Shinpei Konishi, the general manager of Its, told reporters that the forecast was released to "improve predictability for power companies and other stakeholders planning investment."

These scenarios include input from experts from three organisations, as well as comments from groups and companies in the energy industry. They also include a kilowatt hour gap analysis to estimate how much thermal power is needed to meet reserve margins.

Konishi stated that the outlook is based on expected growth due to expanding data centres, network, semiconductor production and vehicle electrification.

The current predictions of the power industry experts vary widely, and they are divided over how much the AI boom is expected to increase electricity demand.

The largest projected shortfall, 89 GW, is found in a scenario that assumes no replacement for aging thermal plants and the decommissioning nuclear plants older than 60 years.

Under the same conditions of demand, even with a full replacement thermal and nuclear capacity there is still a shortfall of 23 GW.

A low-demand scenario involving plant replacements results in a surplus 12 GW.

Each model is based on a nighttime summer scenario when solar output drops, and cooling demand peaks. This represents the worst conditions.

The group predicts that renewable energy capacity will increase between 170 GW to 260 GW by 2050.

The latest Japanese energy plan predicts that power generation will grow from levels in 2023 to 1,100-1200 TWh by 2040. Grid group forecasts that demand will reach 900-1100 TWh in 2040.

The report noted that the scenarios were not in line with the energy plan of government, since they served different purposes.

(source: Reuters)