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How prepared is the U.S. grid for extreme heat this Summer?

Grid operators in the U.S. are reworking their forecasting techniques, reforming power markets, and streamlining the interconnection process to connect more energy into the grid. This is due to a combination of extreme weather conditions and the growth of data centers, which has increased power demand.

Federal regulators warned earlier this year that the summer 2025 power consumption will be higher than in the previous four summers due to high temperatures and the expansion power-hungry power centers. In recent weeks, heat waves have already put strain on the nation's power grid.

"Extreme weather is becoming more frequent, and we're adjusting our plans to that," said Dan Lockwood.

Here are the grid operators' plans to meet summer demand and their longer-term efforts to stabilize the system.

PJM predicted that power consumption would peak at 154,000 MW by the end of summer. The company, the largest grid operator of the U.S., and which serves one fifth of Americans, has said that it is prepared to meet this demand but has warned that in extreme scenarios, it could reach an all-time peak of 166,000MW. The company would then ask customers to reduce their electricity use in exchange of compensation.

PJM has streamlined its interconnection processes to bring new energy onto the grid. It has also accelerated projects that don't require extensive grid upgrades in order to connect to system.

California Independent System Operator reported a surplus of 1,451MW in power this summer, compared to the industry standard, which is one emergency every 10 years. This is a significant change from the estimate of a 1,700 MW shortfall three years ago.

Dede Subakti is the vice president for system operations at CAISO. She said that CAISO also has been adding new power quickly to its grid. In fact, around 25 GW have been added in the last five year. This has been largely battery storage which helps balance demand and supply. The total battery storage pool for CAISO is now 11 GW.

Subakti stated, "With this added capacity, we are in a good position for summer 2025."

CAISO stated that the grid may still experience shortfalls in the event of a prolonged heat wave affecting the entire West or if wildfires cause damage to power transmission lines.

ISO-NEW ENGLAND

ISO New England expects that electricity demand this summer will reach 24,803MW under normal weather conditions, and 25,886MW if extended heatwaves occur. However, it believes they have enough power to meet the demand.

ISO-NE, one of the grid operators evaluating possible changes to its capacity-auction to improve grid reliability. The "prompt auction" will be held just before power is required, rather than the current three-year advance practice.

It also plans to introduce two seasonal commitment periods each year to address the unique risks that the summer and winter demand poses to the grid. The company plans to submit an initial proposal regarding this new market structure before the end of the year.

Midcontinent Independent System Operator has predicted that the peak demand for electricity in its area could reach 123 GW by summer. It also predicts that 138 GW will be available to meet this demand. It warned, like other grid operators, that extreme weather still poses a threat to the grid.

MISO has made changes to its wholesale market as grid risks have increased. This includes assessing the reliability and efficiency of its infrastructure seasonally. In its most recent auction, it implemented a reliability-based demand curve. Under this system, the price of energy resources rises as the grid nears its minimum requirements.

MISO is expected to add around 31 GW nameplate power from 2020 to mid-2025. Another 10.9 GW is estimated for this year. Nearly 11 GW in power resources are scheduled to be retired between 2020 and early 2026. (Reporting and editing by Liz Hampton, David Holmes, and Kavya Balaraman)

(source: Reuters)