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After price reforms, China's solar capacity will slow down in H2.

Analysts say that China's solar power capacity is expected to slow down in the second half 2025, as the reforms which remove guaranteed pricing will create uncertainty. However, full-year additions are still expected to reach a high record due frontloading.

The slowing of growth in the largest solar fleet in the world is a new blow to solar manufacturers who are already struggling under massive overcapacity, and a price war.

Morningstar estimates that global solar manufacturers, most of whom are located in China, can produce more than twice as many panels this year.

According to the National Energy Administration's data, China added 212 gigawatts in solar power capacity through June. This is more than twice the additions for the first half of 2024.

Analysts' latest forecasts show that, based on this figure, capacity additions will likely be roughly halved in the second half of the year compared to the previous year.

Natixis analysts expect 300 GW in new solar by 2025, based on their mid-point scenario. This means that 88 GW of new solar will be added in the remainder of the year based on calculations excluding the first half NEA.

Fitch Solutions BMI predicts a gain of 310GW annually, which would translate to a gain of only 98GW expected for the remainder of the year.

NEA data revealed that 175 GW solar power was added in 2024's second half, as part of a 277 GW annual record.

The power reforms that were introduced in the first half of this year eliminated a guaranteed return rate for renewable energy projects. This forced projects to be built after June to sell electricity at market rates.

Investors used to fixed prices are left uncertain about the rate of return. The exact market mechanisms may differ from province to province, adding further confusion.

The NEA data revealed that companies increased their capacity in the first half of 2018, adding 93 GW new capacity in May. This dropped to 14 GW by June.

Linda Zeng is a senior analyst at BMI who specializes in renewable energy and power.

She thinks annual additions will be higher because of "the sheer size of the first half." We expect that the additions will be similar to June's rate, which isn't super high.

Zeng said that solar installations will reach a plateau around 250 GW annually by 2026. Colleen howe, Christian Schmollinger (Editing)

(source: Reuters)