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Is Europe's recovery in gas demand derailed by the Iran crisis or is it just dented? Maguire
Gas-fired electricity production in Europe reached multi-year-highs early in 2026. This raised hopes among LNG exporters that Europe was regaining a taste for this fuel. Gas consumption has slowed down significantly in March. The average level of gas production across the key consumers is down by about a third compared to the previous month. At least part of this slowdown is likely due to a sharp rise in regional gas prices in the wake of the U.S. - Iran war that began on February 28, 2008. The above-average temperatures in Central and Western Europe have also 'cut regional gas consumption, as heating demands have dropped sharply since the beginning of the year. The low regional gas inventory levels, which need to be replenished before next winter and trigger regular import orders, even if industrial and power gas usage remains soft will further obscure the demand picture. The global LNG industry is facing major challenges as it invests billions in new export capacities on the assumption that Europe will continue to grow its gas demand. The future gas consumption in Europe will have a significant impact on several clean-tech industries, including developers of renewable energy and manufacturers of heat pumps and batteries. Here are some data and trends that can help industries and analysts grapple with this issue. They may be useful guidesposts to the true demand potential of Europe. Power Trends Gas consumption for electricity production peaks during the winter, when heating demands are highest. Then, it drops sharply between spring and autumn. Ember data show that between 2019 and 2025 the gas-fired production averaged 110 Terawatt Hours (TWh), per month, from October to February, but fell to 87 TWh, per month, from April to Septembre. The roughly 26% drop in consumption at the mid-year mark creates an uneven burn in Europe's electricity system, despite the fact that the fuel is still responsible for 25% of the total output. The annual drop in gas consumption by utilities could be underway, despite market anxiety over the Middle East crisis. Any sudden cold snaps in the spring may result in a new burst of gas demand, further reducing regional fuel stocks. Storage Problems Europe's gas stockpiles hover around 27% capacity. This is the lowest level for this time of year in 2022. The optimistic outlook for LNG exports through 2026 had led utilities to draw down their stocks during the winter. However, the recent halt of LNG exports by Qatar has caused a rapid reevaluation of this calculus. Qatar, the second largest LNG exporter by 2025 in the world, is still offline. This means that Europe's storage operators need to replenish their stockpiles before the winter. In the past, Europe's total inventories of gas hovered around 2,000 billion cubic foot (bcf), which was enough to meet normal heating requirements through winter. The current inventory is around 370 BCF, so it will need to expand by about 1,600 BCF over the next 235 or so days. Gas storage operators will need to inject approximately 6.9 bcf/day (bcfd), which is equivalent to two large LNG tanks per day, in order for them reach this total. According to Kpler's estimates, in Europe, in 2025 three large LNG tanks will discharge their cargo on average per day. This means that storage companies can secure two tankers per a day. According to LSEG, the majority of Europe's natural gas is delivered via pipeline. Around 17 bcfd are distributed throughout Europe by countries like Norway, North Africa, and Azerbaijan. As they refill their tanks, tank farms will choose cheaper pipelined LNG supplies but will also tap the LNG market if prices is attractive. PIVOT INDUSTRIAL Gas demand is also influenced by the health of Europe's industry. Fertilizer producers, chemical plants and steel mills, as well as a large number of production lines, have historically been "steady" gas consumers. The collective gas consumption of businesses has fallen sharply in the years since Russia invaded Ukraine, 2022. It has also remained soft amid a subdued economy across Europe. Volkswagen, Europe's largest automaker, reported layoffs this year and a decline in profits. European policymakers are currently drafting new industrial heating rules to help some sectors replace volatile natural gas with cheaper electric. To reduce the need to import gas, lawmakers are taking steps to increase supplies of biomethane. This is mainly generated from agricultural facilities and municipal waste disposal sites. These measures could reduce the total amount of industrial gas used, but they would also create an extra demand for electricity, which would require the power sector to provide at a low cost. Gas-dependent businesses have no choice but to burn gas as long as they can and reduce output when they cannot. It is likely that Europe's gas consumption trends will remain choppy in the near future, even as power and industrial users reduce their dependence on gas. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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DHL Express maintains investment plans in Middle East despite the war
DHL Express Europe's CEO Mike Parra stated on Thursday that the company will continue to invest in the Middle East despite the conflict in Iran, as the region plays a crucial role for its business over the long term. The Deutsche Post DHL Group has announced investments of more than 500 millions?euros (577 million dollars) in the Middle East, especially in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Parra, a journalist in Amsterdam, said: "Investments continue in the Middle East. We see the Middle East as having a key role for us from a long-term standpoint." The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which took place on February 28, resulted in airport closures throughout the Middle East. They also effectively halted shipping along the Strait of Hormuz - a major global trading route for energy. Parra stated that in response to airport closings, the company has "connected the Middle East and Europe via road." We fly in from Asia to Kazakhstan. We are flying into Kazakhstan from Asia, and then we will be trucking across the Middle East. We have contingency plans in place." He said that higher costs are being passed on to customers as a surcharge for security risks. Parra said that "we're paying higher levels of insurance for our pilots and the assets that fly into markets at risk." ($1 = 0.8661 euro) (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Inti Landauro, Anthony Deutsch)
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Serbia's NIS requests a new waiver of US sanctions to allow crude imports
The U.S. has granted another waiver to Serbia's Russian owned NIS Oil Company, which allows crude imports until the sale of the company?to Hungary MOL is completed. NIS operates a single oil refinery for Serbia in Pancevo. It supplies the Balkan nation with 80% of its fuel requirements. In October, the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions against NIS as part of "broader measures" targeting Russia's oil and gas sector in response to Moscow's conflict in Ukraine. In December last year, the?OFAC granted NIS until 24 March to negotiate the sale?of majority stakes?held by Russia’s Gazprom and Gazprom. The waiver also allowed NIS to import crude oil until March 20, when it expires. NIS released a statement saying that the request to OFAC emphasized "the importance of regular operations of the company for the (Serbian economy), especially given global developments and current conditions on the oil market. It also pointed to the advanced negotiations to alter NIS's ownership." MOL announced on January 19 that it had signed a binding contract with Russian companies in order to purchase their stakes in NIS. Gazprom holds a?11.3% stake in NIS and Gazprom neft a?44.9% stake. The Serbian government owns a 29.9% stake in NIS, with the rest owned by small shareholders and employees. Kazakhstan was Serbia's biggest crude?supplier in the past year, accounting nearly 60% of imports. Nigeria and Guyana were next. Iraq used to be the largest supplier, with more than 50% in 2022. However, this situation has changed due to changes in market conditions. All imported crude oil arrives by tankers on the Croatian island Krk, and then is transported via the JANAF pipeline. Reporting by Aleksandar Vasovic. Mark Potter edited the article.
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Indian rice exports are slowing down as the Middle East war increases freight and insurance costs
Five exporters said that the U.S. and Israel war on Iran is causing a slowdown in rice exports out of India. The increased freight costs and insurance rates are making it harder for exporters?to secure vessels. India exports more rice than Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan combined. The rising freight rates have caused concern among both buyers and vendors, resulting in a significant slowdown of the signing of new deals for exports, according to Nitin Gupta. Senior vice president at Olam Agri India. "Freight prices are rising daily." Gupta stated that shippers were adding emergency fuel surcharges, war surcharges, and other surcharges to imports. Since the maritime traffic along?Strait of Hormuz was all but stopped more than a fortnight ago, shipping insurance and freight rates are on the rise. Oil shipments have been disrupted by 20%, which has led to a rise in global energy prices. This includes bunker fuel. According to Himanshu Agrawal of Satyam Balajee, the executive director for rice exporter Satyam Balajee, they have difficulty arranging logistics in order to fulfill new orders. "Importing nations are holding adequate stocks with a large amount still in transit. So, there are no panic purchases by buyers at this time. Agrawal stated that they are waiting for dust to settle. India ships its non-basmati to countries such as Bangladesh and Benin. It also exports premium basmati to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. Exporters in New Delhi reported that the Strait of Hormuz has effectively blocked the flow of Indian 'basmati rice' to major Middle Eastern markets including Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. He said: "Sellers... don't know when ships will be unloaded, or when they'll receive payment." This year, India's rice output jumped to a record high. Mukesh Jain is an exporter who said that he had enough exports to meet demand. He also stated that the depreciation of the rupee was helping. However, the bottlenecks in the logistics were preventing the signing new contracts. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Liffey; Reporting by Rajendra J. Jadhav)
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State rail company reports that grain deliveries from Ukraine to ports have risen 10% in March.
The weather was a factor in the 10% increase in grain shipments from Ukraine to Black Sea ports for export. Ukraine is one of the world's largest grain producers and exporters. More than 90% of grain exported by Ukraine goes to Black Sea ports via rail. Ukrzaliznytsia reported that so far in the month of March,?0.9 metric?tons grain had been delivered to ports. This is 8% more than during the same period last year. Last week, the company reported that grain shipments from Ukraine to ports increased by?5.5% year-on-year in February to?2.3 metric tons. As of March 6, data from Ukraine's Economy Ministry showed that 22.8 million tons of different grains had been exported so far during the 2025/26 July to June season, compared with 29.6 millions a season before. (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton; Reporting by Pavel Polityuk)
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Goldman Sachs delays BoE rate-cut outlook again on energy-driven inflation risks
Goldman Sachs has delayed its Bank of England rate cut outlook for the second time in this month, citing inflation risks from higher energy prices. They now expect three 25-basis point cuts in July and December this year and one in Febuary 2027. Goldman Sachs stated that while a rate reduction at the April 30 meeting is possible, if the energy crisis?eases quickly, policymakers will more likely wait until they have clearer data. According to the brokerage, the shift is due to the inflationary effect of higher energy prices in Europe. This will likely keep the Monetary Policy Committee on the defensive for the near future. Standard Chartered, Morgan Stanley and others have also pushed their Bank of England easing 'forecasts back, now projecting that the central bank will make its first rate cut during the second quater, due to the spike in energy prices linked to the 'Middle East conflict, which has increased inflation risks. Goldman Sachs predicts that the bank rate will 'ultimately settle at 3% by early 2027. However, in the event of a negative scenario, the MPC is only likely to deliver one cut for this year, and no cuts if conditions worsen.
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Honda reports a $3.6 billion loss for the year due to rising costs of EV restructuring
Honda warned that it would suffer a loss as high as $3.6 billion this year due to the rising cost of restructuring their struggling EV business. Japan's second largest automaker is the latest to announce a multi-billion-dollar loss due to a cooling in demand for EVs. This is especially true of the United States. Washington, under President Donald Trump has withdrawn the 'plug' on government support for EVs. This has forced Ford and Stellantis to rethink their strategy. Toshihiro Mbe, Honda's CEO, said at a press event that the company would "scrap the development of certain planned EV models" and instead focus on hybrids. The demand for hybrids has soared in the United States as well as elsewhere. The Japanese automaker expects to make a loss of up to 570 billion yen (about $3.6 billion) for the year ending March. This is a significant change from the previous forecast of a profit worth 550 billion. The company stated that it expects to incur up to 2.5 trillion yen worth of?expenses over several financial years as a result of the new strategy. The automaker announced that Mibe and Executive Vice President Noriya Kaihara would voluntarily give up?the equivalent 30% of their compensation during the next three months, while other executives will give up 20%. Honda will announce a new mid-to long-term strategy for its business in the next financial year. $1 = 158.9400 Japanese yen (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez, Christopher Cushing and Clarence Fernandez)
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Honda reports a loss of up to $3.5 billion in its fiscal year 2019 as it evaluates its EV strategy
Honda Motor said on Thursday that it could book an 'operating loss' of up to $3.5 billion for the financial year ending in this month, due to rising costs associated with its electric vehicle strategies. The Japanese automaker slashed their forecast from 550 billion yen 'profit to a loss between 270 billion yen and 550 billion yen (between $1.75 billion and $3.46 billion). They also cancelled the development and launch of certain U.S. made EVs due to a?slowdown on the North America EV Market. Honda held a press event at 07:30 GMT and said that it expected to incur losses of up to 2.5 trillion yen over several years as a result of its new strategy. The company also reduced its forecast for net profit ranges, from a profit of 300 billion to a loss between 420 and 690 billion yen. The automaker stated that it was aiming to?introduce next-generation hybrids and enhance its existing?hybrid line?to increase profitability. The automaker said that CEO Toshihiro Mbe and Executive vice president Noriya Kaihara would voluntarily give up?the equivalent 30% of their pay for three months, while other executives would give up 20%. Honda is planning to announce a "revised mid-to long-term business strategy" in the next financial year. ($1 =158.9400 Japanese yen) Reporting by Daniel Leussink, Kantaro Koiya and Christopher Cushing.
IEA: Russia's oil exports and revenue have been at their lowest level since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict.
The International Energy Agency reported on Thursday that Russia's crude-oil?and refined products?and revenues decreased in February to reach their lowest levels?since the onset of the Ukraine conflict 2022.
Russia's commodity revenue is a crucial?part of state budget proceeds, and it is?needed to support increasing military expenditures. Since the beginning of the Iran War at the end of February, Russian oil prices have increased.
The Paris-based IEA reported that Russia's crude exports decreased by 410,000 barrels a day from January to 4.2 millions?barrels a day.
The drop was caused by the?reduction of exports to India after 'Washington discouraged Russia from cooperating with it, and the?closure of the Druzhba Pipeline - which carries?flows?to Hungary, Slovakia and Ukraine - following the attacks against the pipeline infrastructure at the end if January. Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; editing by Tomaszjanowski
(source: Reuters)