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India's fuel exports reach multi-year highs due to higher refinery runs and ethanol blending

Analysts and traders said that Indian oil refiners have increased gasoline and diesel exports at their highest level in several years due to expanded crude processing capacities and increased domestic fuel blending, which has released fuel supplies for overseas market.

Refiners are increasing runs in India and sending surplus barrels overseas. India sources about one-third of its crude oil from Russia.

The increase in exports will help meet Europe's demand for winter heating oil and support Indian refinery margins. Refiners have turned to Russian discounted crude after Europe and the U.S. placed sanctions on Moscow in February 2022 due to its invasion of Ukraine.

Washington D.C. accused India of profiteering, by importing Russian crude oil at lower rates and reselling it at higher rates. India said that its purchases had stabilised the markets.

According to Wood Mackenzie, India is expecting its crude processing to grow by between 130,000 and 160,000 barrels a day, to 5.51 million bpd. Gasoline exports are expected to reach a new record of around 400,000 barrels bpd.

A source in the Indian refinery industry, who refused to be identified due to company policies, stated that exports were increasing because domestic demand was weaker during monsoon and there were fewer planned maintenance outages.

Kpler, a data provider, estimates India's gasoline exports in 2025 at 387,000 barrels per day (bpd), mainly to Asia.

Priti Mehta, Woodmac's analyst, said that the growth in gasoline exports was supported by an increasing share of ethanol in domestic gasoline consumption.

In 2023, the world's second largest crude importer and user increased ethanol blend in gasoline from 12% to 20%.

Refiners led by Reliance Industries, Mangalore Refinery, and Petrochemicals Ltd are increasing exports in order to take advantage of the strong margins on Asian gasoline The price of oil has risen by 51% in the last year, to $11-12 a barrel.

Companies did not respond immediately to requests for comments.

EUROPE'S DIESEL SPREE

Analysts said that India's exports of gasoil are expected to reach a record high in this year. The majority of the volumes will be shipped to Europe for winter heating, since global supplies may become tighter during the fourth quarter due to heavy refinery maintenance across Europe and the Middle East.

Wood Mackenzie estimates that India's gasoil exports in 2025 will reach 610,000-630,000 barrels per day (bpd), while Kpler predicts 560,000 barrels per day.

According to Energy Aspects, the Saudi Arabian refineries are scheduled to undergo maintenance in October and November, which will result in a drop of 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to around 400,000 in October-November.

Reliance Industries, a Singapore-based fuel trader and ship tracking data revealed that Reliance Industries shipped around 2 million barrels (or 60,000 gallons) of diesel into Europe in late August, a move uncommonly made to accommodate larger volumes. Diesel cargoes tend to be transported on smaller product tankers.

In its 18th package against Russia, the European Union announced in July that after a six-month transition period it would stop importing petroleum products derived from Russian crude. The exemption will apply to imports coming from Norway, Britain and the U.S.

(source: Reuters)