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Dangote's proposed Kenyan refinery faces challenges, including crude supply

Aliko Dangote, a billionaire, has set his sights on replicating the project that launched Africa's largest oil refinery, in Nigeria, less than three years ago.

But the construction of his company's planned new 700,000-barrel-per-day Lamu refinery in Kenya promises to bring a whole new set ?of issues -- not least where to secure crude supply in ?a country that, unlike oil-rich Nigeria, currently has no commercial output.

Plans are changing rapidly. Discussions about Dangote's East African Refinery centered on Tanzania until April.

Dangote said to the Financial Times that he would prefer the refinery be located in Mombasa in Kenya. However, in July an executive stated it would be constructed in Lamu. This deep-water port is critical for the refinery’s success.

The company hopes to finish the refinery before 2030. It will hold a groundbreaking at the end this month. Aliko Dangote said that he expected it to cost between $15 billion and $16 billion.

The project will test whether the model which helped Nigeria become a fuel exporter and a country with less crude oil supplies can be replicated in a region that has a lesser energy infrastructure.

Devakumar Edward, vice-president of Dangote Industries said that there are no challenges to be overcome in terms of regulatory, financial and feedstock issues. It has been previously stated that the company believes this project will improve regional fuel supply as well as energy security.

Brendon Verster is a senior economist with Oxford Economics.

RAISING CAPITAL

In July, a company executive stated that Dangote Group intends to finance the Kenyan Refinery using internal cash flow and?bonds. Dangote plans to launch the largest ever IPO for Africa, a Lagos refinery.

Dangote, if he follows the Lagos playbook, could add his own equity to a mix that includes commercial bank loans, and development finance institutions like Afreximbank.

The company has already announced other major expansion plans. On Monday, it said that it would spend $14.3billion to double the capacity of its Lagos facility. Analysts say that Dangote is already pursuing multiple oil-related project and that securing funding could be a problem.

Kaase GBakon, a former petroleum economist with the state-owned Nigerian Oil Company NNPC, said that raising capital for Lamu would be a challenge, given the group's goal of obtaining?40 billion dollars (including Lamu), between 2025 and 3030 for the announced energy projects.

Dangote also suggested that East African nations like Rwanda, South Sudan and Tanzania could each take a 30% equity stake. This would create a new funding source and tie the governments to the project. However, no specific details were given about potential deals.

CRUDE SOURCES

According to Kenyan reports, the chief economist of Kenyan President William Ruto said that, in terms of feedstocks, the plant would be able to secure a daily crude oil supply of 600,000 barrels from East Africa. This includes South Sudan, Uganda and Kenya.

None of these sources are simple. Kenya has oil reserves that have been proven but it has taken years to start production.

The prospect of a crude pipeline connecting South Sudan's oil fields, whose exports have been disrupted due to insecurity in Sudan, with Kenya's Lokichar Basin and Lamu Port is still a long way off.

Maximillian Ezeude is an oil and gas lawyer from Lagos who told us that South Sudan exports go through Sudan while Uganda barrels are sent to Tanzania via EACOP.

Ezeude stated that "This leaves the coastal facility reliant on an unstable international seaborne market".

The Middle East is the nearest major source of seaborne imports, and the Iran War is disrupting exports.

The refinery is located in the Lamu Port - South Sudan - Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET), a special economic zone near Lamu Port. Lamu Port currently does not have any operational oil storage terminals.

The LAPSSET corridor project provides for oil storage facilities at Lamu that can store between 1 and 1.5 million barrels of oil, as well marine loading facilities that can handle vessels of the Suezmax class.

This infrastructure is still largely unbuilt.

PROJECTS WILL ENGENDER GROWTH, SAYS PRESIDENT

The refinery could also have an impact on?Lamu Old Town, located on Lamu Island. This is a World Heritage Site 10 km (6 miles), from Lamu Port. Greenpeace Africa also called on the project to stop due to concerns over habitat destruction and marine degrading.

Kenya's Ruto said that the country, whose one refinery was shut down by Essar Energy of India?in 2013, believes the new plant can eliminate costly fuel imports.

According to official figures, it spent $4 billion (511,5 billion Kenyan Shillings) on petroleum last year.

Ruto, speaking of the Lamu Project, said: "We must make decisions that will change and transform our country."

Benjamin Oluwatobi Ajayi is an energy analyst in Lagos. He said that the challenge posed by the project was "substantial".

He said that the execution risk was increased by the size of the required debt, the ESG-related constraints on financing, the competition for capital between multiple projects and the need to coordinate many lenders and stakeholders in a short time frame.

(source: Reuters)