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US energy sector prepares for winter storm, as crude and natural-gas output falls

As a winter storm accompanied by?cold temperatures' began to sweep the United States on Friday, U.S. crude oil and natural gas production dropped and spot electricity prices soared.

According to the National Weather Service, the storm system named Fern will bring heavy snow and?sleet to large parts of the U.S., from the southern Rockies up to New England, through Monday. Travel disruptions are expected, as well as downed powerlines and extended electricity outages.

According to analysts and state regulators, the U.S. crude production is expected to fall as cold weather and stormy conditions force operators to stop production in certain basins. Energy Aspects said that this could result in a loss of up to 300,000 barrels a day.

Energy Aspects reported that the storm could reduce natural gas production by 86 billion cubic foot over the next two week, and noted that the Appalachia area could lose up to 35 bcf.

According to Energy Aspects, freezing temperatures will reach the Permian Basin this weekend. This could cause a decline of 200,000 barrels per day in that oilfield. According to the Energy Information Administration, this area - which straddles Texas & New Mexico - is expected to produce 6.63m bpd in January.

The state regulator reported on Friday that North Dakota crude production is down between 80,000 and 110,000 barrels per day, or 5 to 10%. This is because operators have shut down their operations due to the cold weather.

The latest data from the Industrial Commission of North Dakota showed that North Dakota was the third largest oil producing state. Its output increased by 12,000 bpd, to 1.189 millions bpd, in November.

The associated gas production of the state is currently down 0.24 billion cubic foot per day, to 0.33 BCFD.

Prepare for the POWER GRID Operators

Chris Wright, the U.S. Secretary for Energy, asked power grid operators on Thursday to have backup generators available at data centers – which are sensitive even to minor disruptions – and other major facilities as needed.

According to the Department of Energy, there are still 35 GW of backup generators that have not been used in the United States. This could reduce blackouts, and potentially save hundreds of millions of dollars for Americans in the event of a winter storm.

Southwest Power Pool (SWPP), a regional grid operator spanning 14 states from North Dakota to Louisiana reported that spot wholesale prices in real time were above $200 per megawatt hour due to congestion on high voltage power lines that brought electricity from the South to the upper Midwest.

A surplus of wind power generated as the storm tore through New Mexico and Oklahoma caused wholesale prices to fall. Wind generators were forced to pay for the grid to accept their excess electricity to avoid having to shut down their own production.

PJM, the largest U.S. grid, has warned that temperatures could cause it to set a 'new all-time peak winter load on Tuesday, 27th January. It is taking extra precautions in preparation with its transmission and generation owners. CenterPoint Energy, Duke Energy and other U.S. utilities issued a joint statement on Friday informing consumers that they are preparing to reduce the impact on power supply.

Fuel Markets Brace for Cold Blast

Diesel prices are rising because it is used for heating and electricity generation.

Tom Kloza is a veteran oil analyst. He said that there is a potential for soaring demand for distillate fuels, as trucks are loaded with fuel?that must be used because natural gas is not available.

The possibility of refining disruptions also pushed U.S. ultra low-sulfur Diesel futures up to their highest level since November on Friday. ULSD futures rose 3% last to $2.44 a gallon.

TACenergy, a U.S. distributor of fuel, said that major fuel delivery hubs along the Colonial Pipeline - the largest fuel conduit in the U.S. - are expected to remain covered with ice and snow over the next few days.

This has caused the price of shipping gasoline along Colonial's Line 1 to fall, and demand for these delivery hubs is expected to be affected. TACenergy stated that the worst of this storm is expected to pass over most of the refinery origins. Reporting by Georgina Mcartney in Houston and Arathy Sommesekhar in New York; Tim McLaughlin and Nicole Jao, in Boston, and Tim Gardner, in Washington. Editing and rewriting by Nathan Crooks, Rosalba o'Brien, and Nathan Crooks.

(source: Reuters)