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Blackouts are more likely with record-high electricity demand forecast to test the largest US power grid

The PJM interconnection predicts that winter power demand will be at a record high ahead of the weekend, causing transmission line congestion and increasing electricity prices.

Congestion makes it impossible to deliver the cheapest electricity to homes and businesses. This forces PJM, and other grid operators, to dispatch power plants that are less efficient and costlier to meet demand. PJM spot wholesale electricity rates have risen to over $1,000 per megawatt-hour this week, in areas where congestion on power lines has restricted the flow of energy.

Turbulence in power lines and equipment can also cause small blackouts that can spread if not addressed. PJM has issued five 'warnings' to utilities this week about possible small power cuts due to transmission line issues. PJM has not yet ordered any power cuts.

According to analysts and PJM, the limiting of natural gas supplies 'to power plants has also played a significant role in causing outages for generators and a rise in spot prices.

PJM, the company that manages electricity for 67 million residents in 13 Mid-Atlantic and Midwest states, as well as Washington D.C. forecasts that more than 1,400 lines at high voltage will be affected on Thursday, with interruptions averaging 'nearly thirteen hours.

Around 64% of the restrictions will last between 1-3 hours, and around 30% will be lasting from 4-12 hours. PJM data show that the turmoil is a continuation of a pattern which began to emerge late last week.

According to PJM, on Wednesday morning power lines and transmission gear serving Fort Martin Power Station in West Virginia, a coal plant located near the Pennsylvania border had constraints.

PJM data shows that before heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures hit eastern U.S. last week, only 60 power lines were affected by congestion in PJM's network. The constraints lasted an average of 4 hours.

PJM and the electric grids of New York and New England are reporting that their high-voltage power lines are overloaded due to an increase in electricity demand, or have equipment problems caused by temperatures above 0 degrees Fahrenheit.

PJM expects that electricity demand on Friday will reach 148 gigawatts, a record-breaking winter high.

On Wednesday morning, PJM’s average spot -electricity price was around $730 per MWh. Prices in the Dominion -Energy zone were more than twice as high at approximately $1,600 MWh.

The financial firm LSEG reported that the average gas production in the Lower 48 States has dropped to 106.1 billion cubic feet per day in January. This is down from a monthly high of 109.7 bcfd set in December.

According to LSEG, the daily output is expected to increase for a third consecutive day to 97.5 bcfd, after dropping to a 2-year low of 92.5 bcfd Sunday. This was mainly due to frozen wells in Texas Louisiana and Oklahoma.

(source: Reuters)