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ADNOC's trading chief identifies August as a tipping point in oil prices

A senior executive of the Abu Dhabi state oil firm said that August could be a 'tipping point' for higher oil prices, if the demand increases and a supply crisis persists due to the Iran War.

According to Philippe Khoury of ADNOC, executive vice president of sales and trading at the Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference, London, transit through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain limited and below the pre-war level as long as peace uncertainty persists.

Khoury added that it would take months to fully restore the supply chain, while others may only require a few weeks. A full return to prewar conditions could possibly not occur until mid-2027.

EXEC STATES IT IS NOT CLEAR how much further demand can shrink.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway that connects Iran with Oman. It carried a fifth of the world's supply of oil before it was effectively closed by Tehran after the U.S. and Israeli war began on February 28.

The crisis caused the largest energy supply shock ever, sending prices soaring and fueling fears of a recession.

ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber stated last month that the full return of 'Hormuz flows will not be until the first or second quarter of 2027.

Khoury stated that if economies continue to shrink demand, the price could remain around $100 per barrel. If demand improves and the crisis continues, August may be the turning point in prices.

He said it was unclear how much more demand could shrink.

He said that it was difficult to predict the future of prices, given how things are seen today.

He said that the crisis had also affected supplies of chemicals, fertilisers, sulphur, and liquefied petroleum gas. He said that the Middle East supplies between 40 and 45% of European jet-fuel, but these flows are being strangled.

He said that this is the first instance that companies who hedged jet prices will struggle to operate flights due to a lack supply and not because of the cost of the supply.

CHINESE DEMAND IS BELOW EXPECTATIONS, BUT IS STARTING TO INCREASE

Khoury stated that the Chinese demand was below expectations, but is starting to improve as independent "teapot refineries" show appetite. India has continued to buy throughout the crisis, and remains one of the largest spot buyers.

He said that China initially purchased large volumes of Iranian oil before the "double blockage", i.e., the U.S. counterblockade against Iranian ports and the Iranian strait being closed by Iran.

ADNOC has managed to bring back "a lot" of production and has a pipe that can move output outside the Strait, he stated.

Abu?Dhabi said last month that ADNOC is building a second pipe to?double their crude export capacity outside of the Strait by 2027.

The current pipeline can transport up to 1.8 millions barrels of crude per day. ADNOC stated in May 2024 that its production capacity reached 4.85m bpd. It produced approximately 3.4m bpd prior to the war. (Reporting and writing by Robert Harvey, Yousef Saba; editing by Sharon Singleton, Jan Harvey).

(source: Reuters)