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Officials say Ukraine wants to have a prototype European missile defense system in place by the middle of 2027.
A senior official stated that the prototype of a European antiballistic system, codenamed Freyja, should be ready in the first half of next year. Kyiv is pushing its allies to "help deliver" a weapon that can down Russian missiles. Davyd Aloian is the deputy secretary for Ukraine's National Defence and Security Council, which oversees the Freyja Project. He said that an international steering comittee whose task it was to estimate the?research-and-development costs would be convening soon. Two weeks ago, leaders from ten European countries, including Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and around a dozen defense manufacturers met in Paris to launch the antiballistic coalition. Aloian stated that "since we are working in such a short time frame, we have a very ambitious goal. We want to have a MVP (minimum-viable product) ready for the first half next year." "This is a prototype which can already show its first practical results." Ukraine's air defence system is made by the United States. It is the only weapon it has that can reliably shoot down Russian ballistic missiles which travel faster than sound. The political volatility, low stock and the long production cycle have all affected Patriots' supplies. Russia increased its ballistic attacks on Kyiv, the capital, and Odesa, a southern port city, this month. They launched dozens of missiles that Ukraine could not intercept due to a lack of interceptors. Ukraine is prepared to provide the Freyja Project with a launcher and an interceptor missile. Zelenskiy said this month that it was just a matter of testing. According to the Ukrainian leader, he hoped that the system would be operational within one year. Kyiv is expecting its allies, including the United States, to provide technology such as advanced radars and sensors and technical expertise in missile guidance and control. Eurosam, which makes the SAMP T interceptor system, as well as Leonardo Thales and Saab are among the defence companies who have so far joined the effort. Fire Point, the Ukrainian drone and missile manufacturer that developed the Flamingo missile, will be the leading industrial partner in the project. Last month, it announced a deal to supply radars for the project with German defence company Hensoldt. OPEN SYSTEM?ARCHITECTURE Freyja aims to be a cheaper alternative to Patriot, on which?many European countries rely. Other air defence systems such as the Franco-Italian SAMP/T or German IRIS-T have yet to prove their ability to down ballistic missiles. Zelenskiy likened the Freyja alliance to Lego, assembling pieces of equipment by leading defence industry leaders. Aloian explained that manufacturers were tasked with creating a framework of a system consisting of interchangeable components. He said that the overall logic of this system was an open architecture. "If Denmark wants the Freyja radar with a Danish-made Freyja system, that's no problem. It's fine if Sweden wants the Saab radar system. Aloian stated that he is considering the idea of creating a special entity, perhaps a fund, to channel all contributions, and ensure stable funding for the project. He hopes that the direct involvement of businesses in the project along with governments will also help reduce redtape. The coalition should not be political but practical. (Reporting and editing by Daniel Flynn, Alexandra Hudson and Yuliia dysa)
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Maguire: The ROI-US Energy Cushion faces a new stress test when Middle East risks are rising again
Since years, America's decreasing vulnerability to the turmoil in the Middle East has been a defining feature of the global energy market. The United States, as the largest oil and gas producer in the world, is better protected from supply shocks overseas than it was before the Gulf crisis. The latest escalation between Iran and the Houthis comes at a sensitive time. The U.S. Energy System is already under heavy strain. Record electricity demand, peak summer fuel consumption, growing data center load, and persistent reliance upon gas-fired generators push infrastructure to its limits. The?country is still rich in energy, but the question now is not whether there are enough supplies or if production can keep up with demand. This helps to explain why traders and policymakers pay unusually close attention a few key indicators. Together, these indicators provide a measure of resilience in the U.S. Energy System as geopolitical risk in the Middle East is once again at the forefront of energy markets. KEY METRICS Metrics that are closely monitored include crude oil production, electricity, gasoline, refinery output and throughput, as well as natural gas storage. Each provides a unique window on the strains across the entire energy system. Crude oil production is a good indicator of whether the domestic supply can offset global disruptions. Natural gas production will reveal whether the fuel that powers much of the U.S. electricity sector can keep up with the rising demand for electricity. The data shows how utilities are working hard to meet the peak summer load from homes, businesses and data centers. The refinery's throughput and the gasoline production are used to determine if enough fuel is produced for transportation during the busiest driving period of the year. Natural gas storage levels are the ultimate balancing metrics, showing if the system is still able to balance supply and demand comfortably or if the cushion of the system is beginning to shrink. These indicators, when taken together, show whether the United States has added spare capacity or resilience to existing infrastructure, or is simply operating it closer to its limit. CRUDE OIL According to U.S. Energy Information Administration data, U.S. crude production is close to a record of 13.8 million barrels a day (bpd). This helps offset 'external supply shocks. Baker Hughes reports that only 450 drilling rigs are currently active, compared to a peak of 1,600 in 2014. This means there is still some drilling capacity available if drilling costs improve. This?potential of a supply response could help to temper concerns about prolonged oil price spikes resulting from geopolitical disruptions, or from tighter global inventory. NATURAL GAS According to the EIA U.S. dry-gas production is close to a record of 111 billion cubic foot per day (Bcf/d), supporting a power industry increasingly dependent on gas-fired generators. The rig count suggests that there is room for growth in the short term, but mature basins and increasing extraction costs may limit long-term supply. The U.S. Gas Markets are well-positioned to meet the rising demand. However, longer-term growth may be more limited than previous cycles. REFINED PRODUCTS Refineries operate at near-record rates, processing over 17 million barrels per day of crude oil. Gasoline inventories are about 9% lower than a year ago, which indicates that fuel supplies are tighter than what refinery activity would suggest. The fact that U.S. fuel refineries are heavily geared toward exports is a major factor in limiting the growth of domestic fuel supplies. Fuel costs on several international markets are significantly higher than U.S. prices. The strong demand for exports has therefore limited the amount of inventory that can be accumulated at home as a result of increased refinery activity. GAS STORAGE Storage is a reflection of the balance between demand and supply. Gas inventories in the U.S. are similar to last year's, which indicates adequate reserves. However, near-record LNG shipments suggest that underlying conditions may be tighter. In the short term, LNG exporters will be able to purchase large quantities of gas due to a strong demand in Asia and Europe. This could lead them into a competition with power generators for gas supply. ELECTRICITY GENERATION According to LSEG data, U.S. -power generation has increased by around 2% compared to a year earlier, mainly due the widespread heatwaves and the steadily increasing electricity demand of homes, businesses, and data centers. The increasing power consumption makes it more important to have a reliable fuel supply and adequate generating capacity at peak demand periods. The U.S. power system is able to meet increasing loads despite periods of low wind generation. Extreme temperatures, or other operational disruptions, can cause a tightening in supply-demand and lead to a greater reliance on gas-fired plant. Electricity generation is a key indicator for the U.S. Energy System. The Big Picture These indicators together provide a measure of energy resilience in the United States. The oil and gas industry shows a strong supply, while power generation and refined products show a steady demand. Gas storage and fuel availability are tracked. The data indicates that the energy system is well-supplied. As tensions in the Middle East rise and domestic demand continues to climb, these metrics can reveal if the United States has built new resilience or relying solely on ever-thinner margins for spare capacity. These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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Authorities say that two people were killed and 17 injured in Russia's South by air strikes from Ukraine.
Regional authorities reported on Monday that two Ukrainians were killed and '17 other people injured in air strikes against the southern Russian cities of Rostov on Don?and Belgorod. Local authorities in Ukraine reported that Russian strikes in Ukraine killed one person and injured seven others. Regional governor Yuri Slyusar'said that in Rostov-on Don, a major hub for export near the Sea of Azov a couple of the same?family were killed, and five others were injured, two of them in a critical condition. He added that falling drone debris blew out windows in a residential apartment building and caused fires. Separately, the regional authorities in Belgorod said that a drone strike had injured 12 people including two children and set fire to a residential building. In Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia Regional Governor Ivan Fedorov stated that a guided aerial?bomb and drone attack killed one person and injured two in the southern city which has been heavily bombarded in recent months. Oleh Hryhorov, the regional governor of Sumy, Ukraine, said that a Russian-guided aerial bombing attack inflicted injuries on?five people. Could not independently verify the reports. Both Russia and Ukraine deny that civilians were targeted in the war that was launched by Russia's full scale invasion in February 2022. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Michael Perry and Jekaterina Glubkova from Tokyo)
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US Energy Department orders additional power resources for Western Electric Grid
The U.S. Department of Energy issued an emergency order on Sunday authorizing the grid operator serving parts of 17 states to deploy idle power sources in order to prevent heat wave blackouts. The?U.S. The order instructed grid operator Southwest Power Pool (SPP) to dispatch generator units as necessary to maintain reliability in a territory home to more than 20 million people, spanning from North Dakota to Louisiana. The DOE order was issued shortly after SPP warned of the likelihood that emergency conditions will persist during peak demand periods. This highlights the region's vulnerability due to power plant failures, declines in winds generation, and disruptions to imported electricity. The order also authorized SPP's backup generation to be used as a final resort, before declaring an emergency alert of level three. This can?be a final step before a grid operator decides to rotate outages. DOE stated that it issued the order on SPP's behalf. In a recent statement, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the Trump administration was tapping into an abundance of backup generators to provide affordable, reliable and secured power for hardworking American businesses and families. SPP has seen the risk of rotating blackouts increase over the last week. SPP's reserves were dwindling on Friday after a sudden drop in electricity imports from neighboring grids. SPP prevented outages on that day by asking for voluntary conservation to maintain reserves. SPP is expecting the highest demand of the week in the western territory on Sunday night as temperatures reach above 90 degrees Fahrenheit. SPP is usually a net electricity exporter?because it has a large base of wind-generated power. The heat last week meant that neighboring grids couldn't provide as much power to SPP due to the weather-driven demand. SPP's West Region will remain in a conservative operation?advisory?until 1 August, which was released to raise awareness about?potential threats against the grid reliability. SPP released a statement saying that "Our West will likely continue to experience advisories, and energy emergency alerts conditions during high demand periods,"
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Western US grid operator warns that emergency conditions could persist in seven states
The operator of a major power grid in the west of the United States warned on Sunday about emergency situations that are likely to continue during periods of high demand, underscoring how vulnerable this region is to interruptions in imported energy. The Southwest Power Pool's (SPP) regional grid has seen a rise in rotating blackouts over the last?week. SPP's reserves were dwindling on Friday after a sudden drop in electricity imports from neighboring grids. SPP prevented outages by asking for voluntary conservation to maintain reserves. SPP is expecting the highest demand of the week in the western territory on Sunday evening as temperatures reach above 90 degrees Fahrenheit. SPP is usually a net electricity exporter due to its large wind power base. The heat last week meant that neighboring grids were unable to provide SPP with much power because of the weather-driven demand. SPP stated that its West region would remain in place until August 1, according to a conservative operation advisory. The advisory was released to increase awareness about potential threats to the grid's reliability. Southwest Power Pool released a statement saying that "Our West will likely continue to experience advisories and energy emergency alert conditions, especially during high demand periods." SPP is responsible for managing the flow of electricity in a vast territory, which includes 17 states and 20 million residents. Seven western states, which became a part of the?SPP last April and are vulnerable to power outages, make up this group. SPP's advisories and warnings in the last week have warned that reliability is threatened by a combination of high demand, generator failures and sudden losses of imports.
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Iran announces it will cease its strikes so long as the US bombing pause continues
Iran will cease its attacks as long the United States also does,?a senior Iranian official said on Sunday. The United States has paused its bombing campaign after President Donald Trump's advisors informed him that they had run out of targets. They also expressed concern about the depletion of the U.S. weapons arsenal. The Pentagon ended the airstrikes against Iran after 13 nights. No U.S. strikes were reported for Saturday or Sunday. Iran has held off its attacks on the neighbouring countries of U.S. bases for two days. It had followed each night's U.S. airstrikes with its own strikes. An anonymous Iranian official said that Tehran would "continue to 'attack back'" if the U.S. attacks stopped. This message has been sent to the United States." Mike Waltz, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations told Fox News Sunday and other U.S. Media that Trump had decided to pause U.S. Attacks to allow for more time to be spent on diplomacy. Waltz did not provide any further details. "He is giving the talks some room, he gives it a bit of space," Waltz said. One anonymous U.S. official stated that U.S. officials have warned that the bombings in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway which has become a flashpoint in this war, had exhausted the pre-selected targets. The option of resuming major operations is still available, but the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine warned Trump privately that it would be risky due to the impact on munitions stocks. The official said that this includes the interceptors used in U.S. air defences in the Middle East. Caine's Office and U.S. Central Command refused to comment. U.S. officials have historically refused to discuss their private advice given to an American president in Congress, or even during testimony. Waltz told NBC's 'Meet the Press' that the U.S. Military "has everything it needs" but that Pete Hegseth, the Defense Secretary under the Trump Administration, "inherited a situation that was depleted." A senior Iranian source who spoke under condition of anonymity said that Tehran didn't hold much hope that Trump’s decision to pause the strikes would represent a major change in U.S. negotiation position. "There's more skepticism than optimism regarding the stoppage of attacks." It is generally believed that the pause in attacks is a tactical one and not genuine. Iran has had enough of what it perceives as 'U.S. deception,' the source stated. "STUCK IN LIMBO" For the last two weeks, U.S. troops have been attacking Iran every night in what Washington claimed was a retaliation to Iranian attacks against shipping in?"the Strait of Hormuz". Iranian forces responded to U.S. strikes by striking water desalination facilities in Gulf Arab countries nearby. Iran claims it wants to keep control of the Strait through which, before the war, a fifth?of global oil flowed. The U.S. renewed military campaign has effectively destroyed last month's interim deal aimed at ending war. Trump's decision to pause strikes was based on what media outlets have described as a Friday meeting where Caine, other senior military and policy advisers and Trump raised their concerns. CNN reported Vice President JDVance expressed reservations. Axios reported 'the commander of U.S. Forces in the Middle East Admiral Brad Cooper had recommended halting U.S. Bombing Campaign because it has'reached its limits of effectiveness. Residents of Iran are still apprehensive. Nader, a 49-year-old import/export businessman in Tehran, doubted that any strike pause would last. He told him by phone that "everyone in the country was stuck in limbo". Trump is playing with Iran. He does not end the war, leave the region or strike decisively. It's exhausting."
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Ukrainian officials report that a vessel sinks after it was hit by Russian gunfire a week earlier.
A cargo ship sank off the Black Sea port of Odesa in Ukraine on Sunday. This was a week after Ukrainian officials claimed that it had been hit by Russian forces. Ukraine's port authority confirmed that the Golden Leo sank near the port. The vessel was sailing under the Guinea-Bissau Flag. In a statement, it was stated that nine crew members were killed and eight others evacuated. According to the statement, the?ship that left the port Chornomorsk on July 19 with a cargo?of?corn suffered significant damage after it was'shelled' by Russian forces. The ship was passing along a coast line towards Romania, through a corridor that was overseen by the Ukraine. The ports authority stated that Russian actions against the ship violated "the norms of the international maritime law", and put the lives of the crew at risk. A?witness at the time in Odesa?saw smoke billowing from a large ship off the coast. Moscow hasn't?publicly responded to the strike. In the fifth year war, Russia has intensified its attacks on deepwater port in southern Ukraine that handles a large amount of grain and other vital cargo. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese; Ron Popeski)
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London Gatwick Airport water supply issue
Authorities at Gatwick Airport said that water supplies were interrupted 'on Sunday due to a power 'outage in a local treatment -works. Passengers reported the issue on social media. They said that it had led to the failure of flushing toilets and closures?of bars and restaurants. Water supplies were affected in both terminals of the airport, Britain's second busiest airport after Heathrow. The statement said that "Bottled Water is available to passengers and staff at the airport, and contingency measures have been put in place for the passengers' welfare." Water utility SES Water reported that complications caused by an outage at Bough Beech Water Treatment Works resulted in a temporary loss of water supply or low pressure for some customers. The company stated that "Gatwick Airport is affected, but we are working closely with them to restore service as soon as possible." (Reporting and editing by David Holmes; Paul Sandle)
Bousso: ROI-Europe is in for a long and cold winter, as fuel buffers are dwindling.
Europe faces a winter of alarming fragility in its energy supply as conflicts in the Middle East, Russia and the United States tighten the global markets for heating oil and liquefied gas.
According to official statistics, heating oil and natural gas are the two main fuels used in Europe for residential heating. Gas accounts for approximately 30% of heating demand, while oil is responsible for 10%. Both fuel markets are under extreme strain after years of energy shocks.
Gas vulnerability in the region is largely a result of the dramatic change in its energy mix that has occurred since Russia's "full-scale invasion" of Ukraine in 2022. Europe quickly replaced Russian pipeline fuel with LNG and became one of the largest importers in the world of super-chilled fuel.
This shift increased Europe's security of energy by reducing its reliance on Russia. However, it also complicated the energy dynamics in the region. Instead of relying solely on long-term flows, Europe competes with Asia and the other regions in an LNG global market where supply disruptions are almost instantaneous.
In recent months, this vulnerability has become more apparent.
MIDEAST LNG Crunch
Europe is falling behind in replenishing its LNG inventory before winter. According to LSEG, underground gas storage facilities are around 55% full at the moment, which is their lowest level since 2021.
Since the start of the Iran War, LNG imports to Europe have been a sharp decline. According to Kpler, imports will total just 6.3 metric tons this July, the lowest level since September 2024. Asia is a major factor. According to Kpler, LNG demand in the region has risen in recent months. A record 4 million tonnes of U.S. supplies were delivered in June and in July. These purchases diverted cargoes from Europe that would have otherwise been shipped. Many hoped, when the Strait of Hormuz opened briefly following the U.S./Iran interim agreement in April, that Qatar - which accounted around a fifth of the global LNG supply prior to the conflict - would quickly resume exports. The renewed blockade in recent weeks due to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran has dashed those hopes.
The European market has become increasingly concerned by the combination low inventories, weak imports, and a deteriorating outlook for supply. Last week, benchmark European gas prices climbed above EUR60 per Megawatt Hour. They surpassed their previous peak during the Iran War to reach their highest level since 2023.
Prices will eventually rise, attracting more?LNG to Europe. Even if imports improve in the coming months, it is likely that the region will enter winter with gas stocks well below the targeted 80% level.
THE DIESEL DEVIL
Europe is facing similar challenges with diesel, which has become one of this year's most pressing energy issues.
Diesel imports are a major part of the region's economy. The fuel is used to power transportation, industry, and heating oil. During the summer, consumers and fuel distributors build up their inventories to prepare for winter.
Inventory levels have actually decreased.
The Iran War has caused a disruption in Middle Eastern supply routes, resulting in a reduction of diesel exports. Losing those barrels forced consumers to reduce their stock, pushing them to multi-year lows.
The European diesel inventory is at its lowest level since 2022. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, US diesel stocks fell to a 23-year-low in May before rising by 10% the week ending on July 17.
Two of the largest fuel exporters in the world have made policy decisions that have exacerbated this situation.
China has limited fuel exports in an effort to conserve its supplies since the start of the Iran War. It is unclear how it will manage its production and future exports.
In July, Russia, the second largest diesel exporter by 2025, banned diesel exports after Ukraine drone attacks severely damaged its refinery facilities and reduced fuel availability at home.
Before the recent escalation of the war in Ukraine, Russia was shipping almost 1 million barrels per day or around 12 percent of the global diesel exports. The ban has led to a dramatic increase in the refining margins. Recent European diesel crack spreads reached a record high of almost $65 per barrel.
These high prices have a tendency to reduce demand.
According to the International Energy Agency, diesel demand in Europe fell by more than 6% to 5,53 million bpd in April. The decline in diesel demand may be due to the shift towards gasoline and electric vehicles. However, the persistently high prices have also forced consumers and businesses into reducing their consumption.
Even if tensions ease in the Middle East quickly, damage has been done to inventories. The global LNG and diesel market is likely to be undersupplied for several months, as countries build up stocks and compete over limited supplies.
This leaves Europe more?dependent upon a factor that it cannot control, the weather.
A mild winter might?provide breathing space to avoid a full blown crisis. A prolonged cold snap that increases heating demand would reveal how little room for error there is in Europe's system. The continent is now one winter away from an energy crisis after years of shocks.
You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)