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Asia's oil traders remain bullish on prices despite the Middle East conflict.

As fresh attacks dim the prospects of an end to the Middle East conflict, oil traders in Asia expect prices to stay high. Meanwhile, strong refining margins are driving demand for physical supply.

Benchmark Brent crude futures rose back to?above 100?a barrel in the past week, and rose another 3% on Sunday. This is their highest level since May.

Last week, the rally spilled over to physical markets where premiums on benchmark Dubai and Oman oil rose to their highest level since March. This highlights fierce competition among cargoes. The premiums for crude oil from West Africa, America and Latin America have also reached multi-month highs.

A trader at an Asian refiner said, "Unlike March, when there was no oil in the market, we now have oil but must pay higher prices." The trader declined to be identified as he wasn't authorized to speak with media.

TRADERS: PREMIUMS ARE WELL ABOVE THE LEVEL OF LAST MONTH

SK Energy, a South Korean company, bought 4,000,000 barrels of?U.S. WTI crude oil for December delivery was purchased last week with a premium of around $24 per barrel over November ICE Brent swaps.

The sources said that GS Caltex bought 2 million barrels on a delivered basis of U.S. Crude at a similar 'premium' to the benchmark price in November Dubai.

This compares to a premium of around $13 per barrel to the?Dubai quotations on delivered basis? for U.S. shipments?sold in last month.

Chinese independent refiners are looking for alternatives to the dwindling Iranian, and Russian, supplies. Shenchi Petrochemical bought al-Shaheen last week at about $23 per barrel over Dubai's delivered quotes, according to trade sources.

Andreas H. Lien said, "The crude market is looking relatively positive and tightening" on the sidelines last week of APPEC, an industry gathering.

"That's because Asia is pulling cargoes out of the U.S.A. and South America with high delivered prices."

HORMUZ UNCERTAINTY, TIGHTENING SUPPLY

Three Asian refiners claimed to be running at maximum capacity in order to maximize margins for products and petrochemicals.

One of them reported that Iraq's Basrah Medium was still widely available but with a premium of around $20 per barrel compared to Dubai quotes, for loading via ship-to -ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz. Last month, there were only single-digit premiums.

Three other traders estimated last week that 6 to 8 million barrels of oil a day were passing through the Strait of Hormuz. A naphtha trader said naphtha flow had recovered from 50-60% of its pre-war level.

The Strait of Hormuz was the transit point for 20% of world crude oil and natural gas before the war with Iran began on 28 February.

Price forecasts have been influenced by the uncertainty over the speed of recovery of Hormuz flow.

S&P Global Energy's base-case scenario predicts that crude oil prices will average under $100 per barrel next year. Prices could rise to $120 per barrel if disruptions in Hormuz traffic continue, but fall below $60 if a rapid recovery scenario occurs.

Wood Mackenzie predicted that Brent prices would rise to close to $110 per barrel around the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027 before falling to about $60 per barrel until the start of 2028, assuming that the Strait of Hormuz will resume full flow in January 2027.

(source: Reuters)