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Study finds that global biofuel production will increase by nearly 70% in 2030 as a result of the Gulf energy crisis

A study released on Tuesday revealed that global biofuels production is expected to increase by nearly 70% from its 2025 level by '2030 as major producing countries continue to 'raise blending mandates to respond to the energy crisis caused by the Iran War.

The Forest Stewardship Council and London-based think-tank Chatham House, both non-profit certification groups, co-authored the study.

Biofuels, such as ethanol, can be made from a variety of organic feedstocks. However they are usually produced from food crops and animal feed. These biofuels are often blended with diesel or gasoline and have become more cost-effective as fossil fuel prices increase.

Fuels have been the subject of heated debates over their contribution to climate change, or whether they contribute to food inflation and deforestation. The authors of the study warned that the recent surge in demand could worsen the deforestation.

They said that by prioritizing energy security, they may be sacrificing food insecurity over the medium term (and) an additional shock like extreme weather could have a severe impact on food prices.

Since the Iran War, countries such as Brazil, China and India, Indonesia, the US and the European Union have all proposed or adopted higher mandates for biofuel blends.

If all mandates proposed are fully implemented, according to the authors, land required for biofuel feedstocks will more than double in 2030 from?2023 levels. This would require 36 million additional hectares - an area about the size of Germany.

The authors stated that "the speed at which mandates for biofuels are increasing creates significant risk" as the demand for feedstocks could rise faster than environmental protections, certification systems and land-use planning, or enforcement mechanisms, can be implemented.

Biofuels of the first generation or conventional biofuels are not usually able to restore or reduce land degradation.

The first-generation biofuels come from feedstocks and food crops like corn and sugarcane. The second-generation biofuels, also known as advanced biofuels, are made from waste materials and organic residues, such as cooking oil.

The authors stated that "Production of feedstocks for first generation biofuels tends have net negative consequences for land degradation and food security, as well as water use."

Since the Iran War began late in February, crude oil prices are up nearly 40%. Meanwhile, sugar and corn have increased by about 20%.

(source: Reuters)