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Maguire: Key US energy trends to watch as tariffs begin to kick in

The new tariffs, which went into effect on Tuesday, will have a significant impact on energy product traders, utilities and investors.

On March 4, new 25% tariffs were imposed on imports of goods from Mexico and Canada and a 20% increase in duties for Chinese products. This sparked a trade conflict that has far-reaching consequences for governments, businesses, and consumers.

Mexico is expected to announce its response in the next few days. China and Canada are already taking retaliatory measures.

In the coming weeks, business lobbyists and trade advisors may weigh in with their opinions on measures to target the pain points of the U.S. economic system.

The U.S. Energy sector is likely to be targeted by any future counter-moves. It is the world's largest producer of crude oil and natural gases and is also a major supplier of components for power systems and energy extraction.

Here are some key trends and data in the energy sector that will likely be affected by the latest trade conflict.

OIL & GAS

According to Kpler, the U.S. could face retaliatory duties on its energy products shipments as it is the top exporter in the world of liquefied gas and the third largest exporter in crude oil by 2024.

The U.S. loses a major export source by preventing critical shortages in the supply of LNG, crude oils and refined fuels.

The weak growth in global demand for fossil fuels in 2025 may make it difficult for U.S. companies to quickly find replacement markets for their products.

Kpler data indicates that in 2024 the Netherlands, South Korea China, United Kingdom, and Canada will be the top buyers for U.S. crude oils, while Mexico, Chile Brazil, and Peru will be the top consumers of U.S. refined products.

The U.S. is now imposing stiff tariffs on three of the biggest markets for U.S. fuels and crude oil. They are also likely to be looking for other items that they can use in exchange.

Kpler data indicates that China and Canada will account for 13% of the total U.S. crude oil exports by 2024. Mexico will be responsible for 24% of U.S. exports of clean products.

Canada is a major crude oil supplier to the U.S. The new 10% tariff on Canadian imports will impact U.S. refinery profits and increase gasoline prices in the U.S.

A reduction in Canadian oil supplies may also affect U.S. refinery output and reduce the overall U.S. refined products.

The U.S. has primarily exported LNG to Europe. Only China, with a 5% market share, was among the top buyers of U.S. LNG last year.

The U.S. is vulnerable to a potential backlash from European buyers if Europe were next on the list for tariff treatment.

U.S. gas producers sell large quantities of natural gas to Mexico through pipelines. This could also be affected by any worsening trade tensions.

Power Impact

The U.S. imports a large number of components related to energy extraction, electricity production and distribution.

U.S. Wind Power Industry is the top buyer of components and parts made in Canada, China, or Mexico. Import costs could increase dramatically.

U.S. utilities also are the largest importers in the world of grid-scale batteries and transformers, which are mostly made in China, South Korea, and Japan. This could mean that they face steep price increases on critical equipment.

Canada and Mexico, on the other hand, were the two top markets in the United States for gas turbines made by the country. U.S. turbine producers may be hit now with reduced sales into these key markets.

Trade tariffs could affect power consumers as well, since Canada provides clean energy to several areas of the north United States, and any further deterioration in Canada's trade relations could have a negative impact.

If Canadian power is cut off from the U.S., it could put additional strain on the U.S. grid and force utilities into increasing production of natural gas or coal-fired plants.

The production of fossil fuels could increase emissions in the country and raise local gas prices, which are already up by 18% this year.

These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at.

(source: Reuters)