NATO is struggling to secure the Baltic Sea amid sabotage accusations

On November 18, just hours after two communications cables were cut in the Baltic Sea by NATO ships, 4,000 military personnel and 30 NATO vessels took part in one of the largest naval exercises of northern Europe.

The drill, dubbed "Freezing Winds", lasted 12 days and was part of an effort to increase the protection of infrastructure by the transatlantic defense alliance in waters which carry 15% of all global shipping traffic. These waters are also seen as being increasingly vulnerable to attacks.

Eight NATO countries as well as Russia border the Baltic Sea. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there have been three possible incidents of sabotage against the 40 or so telecommunication cables as well as critical gas pipelines which run along its relatively flat seabed.

"NATO is stepping-up patrols,... Allies are investing innovative technologies that can better secure these assets," Commander Arlo Abrahamson, a NATO spokesperson, said.

The ease with which an anchor can cut through a cable combined with the treacherous conditions of the sea make it almost impossible to prevent such attacks.

On the third day of the exercise, Beata Crol, German commander for the multinational task force, and her crew from the de-mining ship, the Weilheim tried to launch a underwater drone in order to inspect the seabed while a winter storm was raging.

The drone froze after a delay of 30 minutes in its launch. It was unable to operate.

She shrugged and waited as the equipment warmed up.

NATO's six-vessel fleet of minehunting vessels, which has spent years detonating World War Two era mines in the Baltic Seabed, is now being repurposed to monitor suspicious underwater activities. Its hull-mounted radar scans the seabed and drones can take photos and videos under the water. Divers are also on hand.

Its powers are still restricted.

Krol explained that "we are a defensive alliance, and by training and exercising in areas where underwater infrastructure is crucial, we demonstrate presence and prevent, rather than actively engage."

Causes of CABLE DAMAGE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT

Security sources claim that the Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 which left the Russian Port of Ust-Luga in November 15 was responsible for cutting the two underwater cables between Nov.17 and 18. It did this by dragging its mooring on the seabed.

Sweden had urged it to return for an investigation. As of Monday morning, the vessel was still in Danish economic waters being observed by NATO ships. It was accused of sabotage by some politicians, but there is no evidence to support this claim.

China said that it was ready to help in the investigation. Meanwhile, its ally Russia denied any involvement in the Baltic infrastructure incident.

This case is similar to the incident that occurred last year, when a Chinese ship NewNew Polar Bear destroyed two cables connecting Estonia with Finland and Sweden, as well as a gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland. China also promised to help, but it did not stop the ship. A year later, neither Finnish nor Estonian investigators had reached any conclusions.

Cable damage is nothing new. According to the UK's International Cable Protection Committee, 150 cables are damaged worldwide each year. TeleGeography, a U.S. based research firm in telecom, said that the Baltic's shallow waters are especially vulnerable to damage due to the high ship traffic.

If it is proven that any of the recent events were sabotage, then we will see a new type of warfare.

Paul Brodsky is a senior researcher with TeleGeography. He said, "You need to go back to World War One and the Spanish-American War for a state-sponsored attack on a submarine cable."

In order to counter this threat, NATO opened in May its Maritime Centre for Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure in London. The centre aims to map and identify all critical infrastructure within NATO-controlled waters.

In Rostock on the German Baltic coast, an international naval headquarters was opened in October. Its purpose is to protect NATO member interests at sea.

Onboard the Weilheim Commander Pal Bratbak of CUI Branch, the CUI's Branch head, stressed the increasing power of technology.

The NATO Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation in Italy has launched software that will combine data and images from private and military sources, including hydrophones and radars. Satellites and vessels' Automatic Identification System, (AIS), and fibres are also included.

Bratbak explained that if we get a clear picture of the situation, we can send in units to confirm what it tells us.

According to Lieutenant-General Hans-Werner Wiermann of Germany, who headed a cell for the coordination of undersea infrastructure at NATO Headquarters from March until now, no cable or pipeline can be protected all the time.

He said that the best response to hybrid attacks was resilience. Companies were already installing cables with "redundancies", or spare routes, that would allow critical infrastructure to continue working even if a cable is cut.

Krol’s second drone, the Weilheim’s, is able to finally brave the storm and continue the underwater inspection drill.

(source: Reuters)